The "marginal slowdown" in China's economic recovery momentum, in July, real estate investment fell 12.3 %, the largest decline this year.The People's Bank of China announced that it has lowered the interim loan convenience and the interest rate of inverse repurchase operations. The analysis believes that the central bank's interest rate cuts are conducive to the market's concerns about the market that may abandon the growth goals of the official.
The continuous spread of the crown disease epidemic and further deterioration of the real estate market have been dragged down. The Chinese economic recovery is not optimistic. The main economic indicators in July were inferior to expectations; the central bank of China unexpectedly announced its interest rate cuts on Monday to boost the weak economy.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China released the July macro data on Monday (August 15). The main economic indicators were not as expected. Among them, real estate investment fell 12.3 %, the largest decline since this year;Book level.
Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out at the press conference that in July, the Chinese economy continued to recover, but due to the influence of multiple factors, "the trend of economic recovery slowed down."
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the increase in industrial added value above designated size in July fell from 3.9 % in June to 3.8 %; the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased from 3.1 % in June to 2.7 %, an increase of 0.27 month -on -month increased by 0.27% Also slowed down from 0.53 % in June, and the momentum of consumption recovery was far weaker than expected.
The sales of real estate investment decreased by 12.3 %, 28.2 %
The real estate market has not improved under dense policy stimulation.Real estate investment fell 12.3 % in July, the largest decline since this year.The outbreak of mortgage outbreaks at the end of June also hit the confidence of buyers. The decline in sales of commercial housing in the country further expanded to 28.9 %, and sales decreased by 28.2 %.
In addition, the unemployment rate is still high.In July, although the investigation rate of 31 large cities fell to 5.6 %, it was still higher than the pre -epidemic level; especially the unemployment rate of population from 16 to 24 increased from 19.3 % in June to 19.9 %.level.
Fu Linghui admits that the continuous recovery of China's economy is still full of risks and challenges. "The restriction effect of market demand is still relatively large, more difficulties in business operations, and the foundation of economic recovery needs to be consolidated."
Exports increased by 23.9 % year -on -year, but continuous toughness or being retreated
In the main economic data, only exports provide support for the downturn economy.Data show that in July, China ’s goods exported to 2,446 billion yuan (RMB, about 448.9 billion yuan), a year -on -year increase of 23.9 %.
However, due to the slowdown of global economic slowdown and high inflation in developed countries, the continuous toughness of China's exports may be diminishing.Bloomberg's recent survey shows that Chinese manufacturers have received overseas customers' orders from Christmas decorations to clothing and tents, and they are exhausted. Some people are expected to be the same as last year.
Wang Jingwen, director of the Macro Research Center of the China Minsheng Bank Research Institute, posted on the WeChat public account of "Macro -Africa" WeChat public account that although the cumulative growth rate of infrastructure from January to July and the year -on -year growth rate of the month, they played a role in support, which played a role in support.However, the growth rate of exports has gradually been topped, real estate continues to be sluggish, residents have insufficient willingness to leverage, and both internal and external needs are weak.In the next stage, we need to focus on expanding domestic demand, selecting an incremental policy for the opportunity, and further boosting confidence in the private sector.
In the face of financial data that is less than expected in July, and financial data such as the decline in new RMB loans last Friday, the People's Bank of China announced on Monday that Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) and reverse repurchase operationsinterest rate.
Yang Yuting, chief economist at the Greater China of Australia and New Bank, pointed out that the low interest rate was unexpected, which may be a response to the financial data released on Friday.He believes that the Chinese government is still cautious about economic growth and is unwilling to let go of it; the central bank's interest rate cuts are conducive to the release of the market's concerns about the official that the official may abandon the growth goals.
