Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out in an interview with the United Zard that the Chinese government currently adheres to the currency policy that is very restrained because "if you do not consider long -term goals, do not consider long -term goalsIf it is, it is easy to cause the short -term price trend. "At the same time, China must also reserve more space and policy tools for the next stage of economic recovery, leaving room for macro -control next year.
When China's price increase in July to a two -year high, the People's Bank of China warned the risk of raising domestic inflation in China, emphasizing that it would insist on not engaged in "large water irrigation", no currency, and referring to the high inflation in Europe and the United States to give high inflation given by high inflation given by Europe and the United States.China ’s macro -control brings inspiration, showing that the central bank of China has begun to focus on preventing the market demand that may occur after the economic recovery.
Interviewed experts interpreted that the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting at the end of July this year to set the "stable employment" and "stable prices" in the second half of the year, indicating that the Chinese leadership has noticed that with the economic recoveryThe structural inflation pressure came; the latest policy guidance of the People's Bank of China responded to the Politburo's Politburo, which aims to avoid misjudgment of the situation of inflation and repeat the Economic arguments such as Europe and the United States.
The Bank of China issued a second quarter monetary policy report on Wednesday (August 10), which predicts that China's structural inflation pressure may increase in the short term.
On the day the central bank issued a warning, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics announced the latest data, showing that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7 % compared to the same period last year, and it was a new high since August 2020, mainly because of food inflation at pork prices at the price of pork priceThe rise of soaring rises.
The Bank of China reports that it is necessary to take into account the balance of stable growth, employment, and prices, and protect the economy from the threat of inflation.
The central bank predicts that the Chinese CPI operation center in the second half of this year has increased from a level of 1.7 % in the first half of the year. Some monthly increases may exceed 3 %.As a response measure, the central bank said that it would continue to consolidate the favorable conditions for domestic food stable production and the smooth operation of the energy market, while continuing to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity.The central bank predicts that China is expected to achieve the expected goal of about 3 % of the annual CPI increase of about 3 %.
Wang Jun, director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting at the end of July this year to put forward the goal of "focusing on stable employment and stable prices" and "striving to achieve the best results".Price and employment are tied. "It shows that the central government also realizes that with the recovery of the economy, as the input pressure or structural inflation pressure is still accumulated, the price problem must be paid attention to."
Wang Jun predicts that although the price trend will not repeat the ups and downs of 2018, the pressure of "easy difficulty" will gradually increase.He believes that the latest guidelines of the People's Bank of China have a forward -looking and planned ahead, and fully learn from the situation of the European and American economies since last year because of misjudgment of inflation, and then fell into passive experience.
In the context of China's striving for a serious loss in the second quarter of the third quarter, analysts expect that although the central bank's warning has not hinted that the monetary policy will be tightened, the space of great looseness in the next few months is not great; the official official; the official official; the official official; the official official;It may also focus on increasing credit instead of interest rate cuts to support economic recovery.
Gao Ruidong, chief macroeconomicist at Everbright Securities, analyzed in a report on Thursday that structural inflation has limited impact on monetary policy direction, but it may restrict more loose space.
Qin Tai, chief macro analyst of Shen Wanhongyuan, interpreted that the Central Bank of China reported that no currency did not exceed the currency, which may suggest that the existing liquidity launching tools have been quite abundant, and the need to increase liquidity will also decrease significantly. It is expected that the central bank will not not be in the year of the year.Will reduce interest rates again.
Wang Jun explained that the Chinese government currently adheres to the very restrained monetary policy because "if it is not restrained, it is not necessary to consider long -term goals, it is easy to cause the short -term prices to get out of control."At the same time, China must also reserve more space and policy tools for the next stage of economic recovery, leaving room for macro -control next year.
The recent rebound in the crown disease in many places in China may affect the momentum of macroeconomic recovery.Wang Jun judged that the future recovery process of China's economy will not be smooth.However, he pointed out that the current Chinese manufacturing and exports still maintain a good trend. Coupled with the hedging of increasing infrastructure investment, the new wave of epidemic "should not affect the overall situation", "in the third quarter, it must be a stable recovery trend in the third quarter"" ".
