U.S. media reports that after the market value has shrunk by more than $ 100 billion, many investors believe that China's three major technology stocks have bottomed out.However, those who are suspicious said that the biggest problem facing China's technology industry has not been resolved.
According to the Wall Street Journal, since the total market value of the total market value in February last year, the total market value of Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan has shrunk by more than $ 1.2 trillion.Not only these three giants, Chinese technology stocks have plummeted.It is reported that China's extremely strict dynamic zero -resistance policies, the slowdown in the domestic economic slowdown, and the Chinese government's rectification measures for the technology industry have brought about it to technology stocks.
The market value of e -commerce giants Alibaba has reached 858 billion US dollars, while as of Wednesday (August 10), $ 240 billion.The stock price of Internet giant Tencent fell to the lows earlier this month. The best Meituan in these three stocks has also fallen by about 60%from the peak in February 2021.Tencent's WeChat occupies a dominant position in Chinese social media, and the company also holds a few shares of takeaway giant Meituan.
Some investors now smell the opportunity to buy.Although the premature singing of the Chinese technology sector was prematurely sang before, some large fund managers currently bet that the Chinese government's attitude towards technology companies tends to be mild and signs of some consumer rebounds will help promote higher technology stocks.
The relief of political pressure may be the most encouraging news.The Wall Street Journal reported that the Politburo of the Communist Party of China hinted at the end of April that the rectification operation of the technology industry was about to end.The government also ended a one -year survey of Didi, a ride -hailing company, and issued a $ 1.2 billion fine of the company last month.
Report quoting REBECCA Jiang, a stock fund manager of JP Morgan Assets Management Greater China, said the Politburo Conference marked the turning point of the environment in 2021.Jiang jointly manages the $ 6.2 billion fund, China Fund, which bought the stocks of Alibaba and its competitors this year.
In addition, there are more fundamental factors that make investors who are optimistic about the Chinese technology industry feel happy, including signs of initial consumption and recovery, and people feel that Chinese technology companies have learned how to support the economy through the economy.Slow.Alibaba mentioned the consumption recovery in the recent financial report.
Nuno Fernandes, a partner and fund manager of GWK Investment Management, headquartered in New York, said that people think that the current slow income growth of Chinese Internet stocks like Alibaba will last for a while.Fernandes said: "We don't think so."
He said that the cost reduction measures of some of the companies have created a strong potential for the growth of income in 2023.Fernandes said that the income growth of these companies may slow down, but attractiveness is still exists.His company has increased Alibaba's stock this year, and has previously reduced the stock in the second half of 2020.
Zhang Yixiu, a partner of the Gold Capital in Hong Kong, also believes that technology companies are now better at optimizing costs and more cautious in terms of business expansion.He said that the situation in the second half of 2022 would be better than the first half of the year.
Not everyone is convinced of this.According to Morningstar Direct, Kraneshares's CSI China Internet ETF's capital outflow of funds reached US $ 386 million in July this year, which was the highest month since December last year.At present, 26%of the $ 6.8 billion assets managed by the fund are invested in Alibaba, Tencent and Meituan.
SoftBank Group said on Wednesday that the company's shareholding on Alibaba will be reduced from 23.7%to 14.6%; this is the result of a large number of derivative contracts reached by SoftBask with Alibaba shares.
According to reports, some of the problems are that with the signs of alleviating from domestic uncertainty, geopolitical risks are rising.After the invasion of Ukraine in Russia, China ’s support for Russia and the intensive tensions around the Taiwan issue have worsened Sino -US relations that are originally worried.
Eva Lee, the head of the Greater China stock business of UBS Global Wealth Management Office, said that worrying is that geopolitical risks and the potential adverse effects of China's weak real estate market on the economy will scare the potential adverse effects of the economy.Pack to further investment."What we are worried about now is not that investors have withdrawn from these technology stocks, but that these companies cannot attract new investment."
There is also a price -earnings ratio.Analysts said that the days of high -speed growth in Chinese technology stocks have passed, which means that future profit expectations need to transition to a new normal model.
The senior stock analyst of Morning Star in Hong Kong Kai Wang said he did not think that the price -earnings ratio would soon return to the level of three to five years ago.
Alibaba announced earlier that the revenue from April to June had dropped to $ 30.7 billion, which was the first time since the company was listed eight years ago.Tencent and Meituan will release their performance later this month.
But the biggest threat will come from China's economic slowdown.China was only 0.4%year -on -year from April to June, the weakest growth rate since the first quarter of 2020. At that time, the crown disease epidemic that had just been outbreak caused a serious damage to the domestic economy in China.
This is a key argument that it is up to the short Chinese technology stocks. Analysts believe that although the news of China's technology industry may be dissipated, it does not necessarily meanCome.
Matthew Tuttle, the managing director of the Axs Investment of the SHORT China Internet ETF, said the value of these Chinese technology stocks may be underestimated.However, he said that these technology stocks may be underestimated for a long time.
