After the Chinese loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) remained unchanged last month, bank analysts generally predict that considering the complex internal and external environment and the domestic attention of the stable growth and inflation,Unchanged, that is, the 1 -year LPR is 3.7%, and the LPR of more than 5 years is 4.45%.
According to the Securities Times, Zhou Maohua, a macroex researcher at the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, believes that the probability of LPR this month has continued to maintain stability.On the one hand, the interest rate of MLF (interim borrowing convenience) remained unchanged in July. In the context of the current demand for physical financing, the central bank of China has been in the short term of interest rate adjustment or turning to see; on the other handThe interest difference pressure facing banks is greater.
The central bank launched 100 billion yuan (RMB, the same below, about S $ 20 billion) MLF operation on July 15, and the operating interest rate maintained 2.85%unchanged.Based on the anchoring effect of MLF, the possibility of LPR down this month is low.
According to the recently announced main regulatory indicators recently announced by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, the net interest margin of commercial banks in the first quarter was 1.97%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points from 2.08%at the end of 2021.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that since the second quarter, the decline in newly issued corporate loan interest rates and mortgage loan interest rates has been large, and the net interest margin is expected to still be in a downward channel.In this case, the probability of LPR reduction in the short term is not high.
The data recently released by the central bank shows that the interest rate of newly issued corporate loans in June was 4.16%, 34 basis points lower than the same period last year;A percentage point, a new low since statistics.
It is worth mentioning that the central bank established a market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates in April this year.Since the establishment of the mechanism, according to changes in market interest rates, various banks have actively adjusted the level of deposit interest rates.According to central bank data, in June, the average interest rate of new deposits in the banks across the country was about 2.32%, and it fell by 0.12 percentage points compared with April before adjustment.
Zou Lan, director of the Central Bank Policy Department, said that the establishment of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates has significantly improved the marketization capacity of deposit interest rate marketization, which is conducive to maintaining a good competitive order in the deposit market and stabilizing the cost of bank liabilities.Promote the reduction of actual loan interest rates and better support the development of the real economy.
"From the perspective of the trend, the LPR interest rate still has room to reduce." Zhou Maohua said that the reason is that the domestic economic growth and employment in the second half of the year still need policy support.In the second half of the year, policies and measures that have been introduced will continue to be implemented. Whether the central bank will further launch an incremental policy tool also needs to pay attention to subsequent consumption and investment recovery.
According to Bloomberg, 19 economists participating in Bloomberg also predicted that the one -year interest rate will remain unchanged at 3.7%.Among the 14 economists who predicted the five -year interest rate, 12 of the 14 economists believed that it would stabilize 4.45%, and two were expected to be reduced.
Reports pointed out that the data released this month show that China's economic growth in the second quarter has fallen sharply, and the slowest growth rate since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 has occurred in 2020.At the same time, China has recently expressed the attention of inflation many times.Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang presided over a seminar on an economic situation expert entrepreneur last week to make a steady growth and prevent inflation and prevent input inflation.
In addition, the interruption of mortgages that have continued to ferment in some cities in recent cities have further complicated the policy environment.Some market participants have speculated that the five -year LPR may still be reduced this month.
McGear's Chinese economist Hu Weijun said that due to recent concerns about the real estate industry, the decline in the five -year interest rate may provide support for the industry and boost market confidence.
CITIC Securities Chief Economist also pointed out in the report that the Central Bank and the CBRC attach great importance to the suspension of loan. Through the five -year LPR adjustment, the interest rate of personal mortgage loans is further regulated to stimulate residents' demand for house purchase.A feasible means.
