The former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce is expected to achieve about 5.

Wei Jianguo, former deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce of China, said that the toughness of China's exports in the first half of the year was because it made full use of the two domestic and international markets.In the second half of the year, the Foreign Trade Association continues its performance in the first half of the year. It is expected that the export and export will achieve dual -digit growth in the third and fourth quarters, and can achieve the economic growth target of about 5.5%of the annual GDP, which can even reach 5.5%to 6%.

Wei Jianguo said in an exclusive interview with the Finance News Agency that the performance of exports in the first half of the year may be beyond the expectations of many people, but he believes that the toughness of the first half of the year is in line with the development of China's country.In the early stage of the epidemic, China took the lead in re -production, re -production, and resumption of commercial and resumers. In particular, China's supply chain and industrial chain could quickly operate, making full use of the two domestic and international markets.The toughness shown in China's exports is the potential of this early -stage resistance.

Wei Jianguo believes that the China Foreign Trade will continue the performance in the first half of the year in the second half of the year, and it is expected that import and export in the third and fourth quarters will achieve double -digit growth.At the same time, with the recovery of investment and consumption in the second half of the year, it is believed that through the efforts and the effects released by the preliminary policy, the Chinese economy can achieve the target of about 5.5%of the annual GDP of about 5.5%, and can even reach 5.5%to 6%.

Wei Jianguo said that there are three factors that support China's foreign trade in the second half of the year.First, China has eliminated the hidden dangers of the epidemic in the first half of the year. As long as the epidemic is available in the second half of the year, the overall operation of the economy will exceed the first half of the year.There are still a lot of potential in the Chinese economy. People from all walks of life in the second half of the year will be fully involved in the recovery of the economy., These will all work.

Secondly, from the outside, problems such as rising commodity prices such as supply chain crisis, energy and grain, which are currently facing the global supply chain crisis, and China has a complete supply chain and industrial chain.The security of energy can also ensure that the Russian -Ukraine conflict will exacerbate a further decline in the global economy, and overseas markets will rely more on Chinese products.The domestic economy has improved, and the two domestic and international markets will play better results.

Third, it is currently the best time to attract foreign investment in China. It is expected to introduce a series of policies to support foreign investment in the second half of the year.Under the premise of promoting higher levels of openness, we will strengthen the construction of market systems that are mainly international, legalized, and market -oriented, and build the world's best business environment.In the second half of the year, we can see that more foreign investors will invest in China. Global capital, technology, manufacturing, talents, etc. will accelerate to China to China, and the central and western regions may usher in a new round of climax attracting foreign capital.In the second half of the year, not only China's foreign trade will have a rare situation in the world, but China is also expected to exceed US $ 200 billion.

Wei Jianguo also believes that when the global economic recession, only countries with a stable supply chain industry chain and normal economic operation will not only be affected by the global economic recession, but also benefit from it.This is proven in history and now.Japan, South Korea, and some emerging economies cannot stand the impact of European and American economic recession. I believe that under the support of the dual -cycle pattern, it is believed that China will rely on the two domestic and international markets.EssenceThe current contribution of China's economy to the growth of world economic growth generally remains around 30%, and it is expected that this proportion data will be greater in the future.

However, Wei Jianguo also pointed out that China's foreign trade faces three major pressures and challenges in the second half of the year: First, the United States and Europe are unwilling to see Chinese takeaway show a prosperous scene.Protective measures for Chinese trade protectionism.For example, more technical barriers are expected to set up for China, which may strengthen restrictions on China's export high -tech products. China must be prepared for ideas.

Secondly, the first half of the year ushered in a good situation, but at the same time, we must realize that the window period of a good foreign trade situation is the next year to a half year.China should seize the window period from the next year to a half year. On the one hand, we must retain labor -intensive industries such as electronic processing, home appliances, motorcycles, bicycles, textiles, and cultural products.The order is transferred to Southeast Asia and other regions.On the other hand, on the basis of ensuring product quality, to accelerate the transformation and upgrading, and the industry will transform in high -tech direction.If Chinese companies can use the window period from this year to a half and a half years, after experiencing the test, there will be greater room for future development.

Third, to increase import.At present, the major industrial countries have a trade deficit. It is expected that the major industrial countries will continue this situation in the second half of the year, and the trade deficit will be more serious.For example, after the emergence of the Russian and Ukraine War, the global price of energy and agricultural products rose, which increased the trade deficit of countries such as Japan and South Korea's lack of resources and smaller markets.From the perspective of Europe, there are problems in Europe's supply chain now, the exports are blocked, and the shortage of raw materials has led to the suspension of production and production of a large number of factories.In the future, on the one hand, the number of products imported from China will increase from China, and on the other hand, it will decrease from Europe to high -tech products in China.It is expected that the trade deficit in some European countries will not improve in the second half of the year, and it will continue to increase.

The recent adjustment of the U.S. tariff policy for the US tariff policy has been heating up. Whether the United States will cancel the tariffs on China, Wei Jianguo will determine that the US inflation will exceed 10%or even 11%in the next two or three months.The US cancellation of tariffs on Chinese goods is the general trend of lowering the high inflation in the United States.