One is the monarchy of the majority of Sunni Messengers; a monarchy was also implemented, but the king was overthrown in a revolution more than 40 years ago and established the Shiitian Messenger as the core.EssenceSaudi Arabia and Iran have been fighting the boss of Persia for many years, and they have gained gangs, and even fought agent wars in Syria and Yemen.
However, on March 10, 2023, the two opponents who had broken diplomatic relations for seven years suddenly shook hands in Beijing, China, and agreed to rebuild diplomatic relations, which surprised the world.On April 6, the representatives of the two countries gathered in Beijing again, confirming that they would reopen the embassies, resume direct flights, and emphasized the importance of restoring the agreement on security cooperation and trade.
It turns out that Shay has held low -level talks under the mediation of Iraq and Oman in the past two years, but it did not reach an agreement until Beijing's intervention.For the time being, let's go aside from the role of China. In the final analysis, Shayo can reconcile because they currently want to ease the tension situation.
Focus on economic development and reconciliation in line with the interests of both parties
James Dorsey, a senior researcher at the Singapore Nanyang Institute of Technology Rajerenan International Research Institute, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that the environment behind Shati reconciled is "most Middle East countries are tryingThe situation is able to focus on economic reform and development. "
Li Shao, the dean of the Chinese Arab Institute of Arabia in Ningxia University, also said in an interview that Shay is currently focusing on the development of its own economy.The Iranian Lache government must get rid of economic difficulties and get rid of international isolation.Saudi Arabia must focus on the national economic transformation."In this case, the two sides resolve hostility, go towards reconciliation, and meet the interests of both parties."
Doroxi believes that the biggest driving force for Saudi Arabia with Iran is to get rid of the mud of the Yemen War, so as to focus on the development of the economy.
Yemen's government, which was supported by internationally supported by Iran, was driven out of the capital Sana, which was supported by Iran.Saudi Arabia and the allies involved in 2015, hoping to help the Yemen government to restore power, but did not expect that eight years have passed, and Saudi Arabia is still trapped in it.During this period, Saudi Arabia's cities, airports and oil facilities all became the goal of Iranian drone and missiles.
Duoxi pointed out that Saudi Arabia is focusing on economic reform and diversification. It wants to attract foreign investment and hosted various international events, so it requires peace and stability of the boundary.
As long as Said reconcile, Saudi Arabia can hope to help it achieve permanent ceasefire with the Hussean rebels.On April 9, Saudi Arabia and the leader of the Hussean held negotiations in Sana, which reported that the two sides were expected to reach a peace agreement in the near future.
For Iran, reconciliation with Saudi Arabia is the best way to prevent the Abraham Accords.This is a series of normalized statements issued by Israel and multiple Arab countries, including the UAE and Barin in 2020.
Doroxi believes that Iran and Saudi Arabia to repeat to prevent Saudi Arabia from building diplomatic relations with the UAE and Israel, because it will lead to a closer security cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which means to a large extent.Essence
Li Shaoxian believes that the direction of Shati is also related to the US Middle East policy.He pointed out that the reconciliation of the two countries was not a sudden decision, but began negotiations since 2021.At that year, Biden became the president of the United States. After that, the Middle East policy of the United States had been adjusted, including the re -negotiation of the nuclear agreement with Iran, so he no longer pursued the Trump era to "comprehensively block the Iran's extreme pressure blocking" policy.
In addition, the Bayeng government refused to contact it for a time for human rights records, which led to the tension of the US -Saudi relations."In this case, there is a motivation and space for improving relationships between Shay."
However, Mark N. Katz, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Atlas of the American Think Tank, pointed out that the normalization of the Shay relations is not a reconciliation; Riyadh still regards Tehran as a threat.The dead enemy of forgiveness and reconciliation has now regarded Iran as a threat to control.
Cats pointed out that after Shay's repayment, their influence competition in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen will not end.In fact, a report about the upcoming relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran's Syrian Assad regime may be signs of Said's continuous competition.Iran cannot do because Saudi Arabia can provide economic assistance for the Assad regime.
In any case, Shay's abandonment of public and hostile relations has led to dramatic changes in the geopolitical structure of the Middle East. Many Persian Gulf countries, which have always followed Saudi Arabia, have reconciled with Iran or are negotiating.
At the end of 2022, Iran resumed diplomatic relations with the UAE and Kuwait.In 2016, these two countries and Barin and Jordan broke their diplomatic relations with Iran after Saudi Arabia.
It is understood that Iran is currently negotiating to upgrade diplomatic relations with Jordan and Egypt, and is negotiating with Barin to restore diplomatic relations.
Danie's reconciliation is not good news for Israel, and the news said that it has affected the efforts of Israel's establishment of relations with neighbor Arabia.
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China's "Linking Gate" promotes reconciliation
After China promotes the reconciliation of Shay, it has attracted great attention from the international community and believes that it is another example of China's rise.However, there are other public opinion that Iraq and Oman have promoted Shati reconciliation behind the scenes in the past two years.
In Li Shaoyang's view, Shay has long lacked strategic mutual trust. Although the two parties have conducted two years of low -level consultations, they have never reached a consensus.He said: "In this case, Shay needs an external guarantee to promote the ice breaking, and Beijing, which has the trust of the two countries at the same time, is this 'Linmen's kick', which can kick the 'ball' in a critical moment."
The good relationship between China and Shay is related to Beijing's diplomatic layout in the Middle East for many years, especially in the economic and trade cooperation.In 2021, China agreed to invest 400 billion US dollars (about S $ 530 billion) to Iran within 25 years.In December 2022, when China officially visited Saudi Arabia, it promoted the signing of 34 cooperation projects with 34 US dollars.
Jonathan Fulton, a very senior researcher in the Middle East project, said in an interview with Bloomberg, which was responsible for the Middle East project.The most important oil buyers of the two countries.Inside, there are about 30 million Muslim population in China. It has maintained close cooperation with the two major Muslim countries of Shay, which can help Beijing alleviate the pressure on Xinjiang Muslims.
Comments pointed out that in the process of promoting the reconciliation of Shay, China proves that it can play the main role in the Middle East.Experts also believe that the role of Beijing has increased the possibility of observing the Shati reconciliation agreement.
Yasmine Farouk, a very resident scholar of the Middle East project of the US think & Kaneki International Peace Foundation, wrote that in order to ensure that Iran will effectively perform the agreement, Saudi Arabia will inherit the Iranian inheritance in the agreement in the agreementNuo described as a commitment to China, which shows that Saudi Arabia believes that China has the ability to ensure that Iran follows the agreement.
However, Doxia expressed doubts about whether China can ensure that Iran's commitment commitment.He said that the friendly relationship between China and Shay may be a double -edged sword. If Iran violates the agreement, to what extent China will intervene in coordination with all parties, or ignore directly, these are unknown.
Scholars: Shati reconciles the embarrassment absence of the United States
The United States has been the main diplomatic force in the Middle East for decades, and has maintained more than 70 years of ally relationship with Saudi Arabia.Therefore, when Saudi Arabia announced a settlement with Iran under the mediation of Beijing, some public opinion believed that this was a "slap" in Washington, and it also showed that the influence of the United States in the Middle East has weakened.
Li Shaoxian pointed out that in the 30 years from 1991 to 2021 after the Cold War, the United States can be said to have led the Middle East alone, and has not been absent from the Middle East for so many years.Now that Shay's reconciliation of the United States is absent, it is embarrassing for American diplomacy.
Daosi believes that this is of little significance for the United States, because the hostile relationship of the United States makes Washington's unlikely to promote this agreement."The United States has nothing to do with Iran, or even if it is, it is a very hostile relationship, so it has no way to mediate." Duoxi said that in principle, the United States also hopes to see the tension between Shay in principle.
U.S. officials interviewed by Politico, an American political news website, also faded the impact of the matter.They pointed out that this is a one -time case; the reconciliation of Shay's reconciliation is in line with China's economic interests; it will not be transformed into a long -term league; anything that helps to alleviate the situation in the Middle East is in line with the interests of the United States.
U.S. Secretary of State Brosky said in an interview on March 15th: "From our perspective, anything helps to alleviate tensions, avoid conflicts, and curb the danger of Iran or destroy stable actions in any way.It's a good thing. "
Robert Ford, a former US Ambassador to Syria, told the Politico website that Shatai's mediation in China does not mean that the United States will be "driven out" the Persian Gulf."Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are still very eager to maintain military relations with the United States."
Dina Esfandiry, a think tank headquarters in the think tank headquarters in Brucel, also told the Qatar Peninsula TV station that the United States is still the preferred security partner of the Persian Gulf Arab countries.
But many former US officials also said that the United States may need to maintain diplomatic relations with the Persian Gulf countries and expand the existence of diplomacy.Robert Jordan, the former Ambassador to Lyrdon, said to the Politico website, "We have no ambassadors in Saudi Arabia since Biden in power."
Esfantiia believes that in the long run, the United States must worry that China's increasing influence may eventually weaken Washington's influence on the Persian Bay allies.
Shati has broken the relationship twice for more than 40 years
Saudi Arabia and Iran are long -term competitors and have been competing for dominance in the Middle East.The tension between the two countries dates back more than 40 years ago.
1979: Iran Revolution
When the Iranian revolutionary overthrew the United States, when the king supported by the United States and established the Muslim Republic, the government led by Sunni in the Middle East accused Iran of seeking the "output" revolution.
In 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, triggering a war of eight years.Saudi Arabia supported Iraq.
1988: Broke in diplomatic
In July 1987, the Saudi Security Force caused a step -by -step incident against Iranian pilgrims in Macao's anti -US protests in Memoriza Holy Land.The conflict killed more than 400 people, most of which were Iranians.As a response, Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.
In April 1988, Saudi Arabia broke her diplomatic relations with Iran and did not resume diplomatic relations until 1991.
Since 2011: Syrian and Yemen support cube
Shay supports the opposite camp in the Syrian civil war.Iran supports President Assad with military power and funding; Saudi Arabia supports Sunni rebels, but also joined the United States leded to combat the Islamic State of the Sunni extremist organization.
In the conflict of Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the United States accused Iranian armed Hussean rebels, and Iran denied it.In March 2015, Saudi Leadership began an air strike of the Hussean rebels.
January 2016: Broken diplomatic relations
Saudi Arabia has executed Nimr Al-Nimr, Shiites, who is charged with terrorism, is a promoter of anti-government protests.Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi Embassy in Iran, and Saudi Arabia broke her diplomatic relations with Iran again.
October 2017: The United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement
U.S. President Trump withdrew from the 2015 agreement reached by a global country to limit the Iranian nuclear activities and Saudi Arabia support.In March 2018, Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad warned that if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, "we will follow up as soon as possible."
March 10, 2023: Restore relationship
Saudi Arabia and Iran suddenly announced their plan to restore relationships.
