(Washington Composite Electric) Economists believe that the possibility of the US economy will become more and more likely to fall into decline next year; this decline may be mild, but it will last longer.
Many observers predict that compared with the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 and the continued downturn in the 1980s, the new round of decline in the United States will not be so painful; although the current inflation rate is as high as that year, the current economic problems are not not as high as that year, but the current economic problems are not.As serious as that year.
However, although a new round of decline in the United States may be mild, it may last longer than the early 1990s and the eight -month downturn in 2001. This is because the U.S. inflation is still high.Eager to reverse the economic downturn.
Nomura Securities American economist Dengte said: "Good news is that the severe degree of decline is limited, and bad news is that it will last for a long time." The former New York Federal Reserve analyst believes that the decline in the United States will be the first year from this year.Starting in the fourth quarter and continuing until next year, the contraction is about 2%.
Analysts believe that no matter what form of the callback, one thing is certain: when it comes, it will cause a lot of harm.Among the dozen declines since World War II, the US economy has shrunk by 2.5%, the unemployment rate has increased by about 3.8 percentage points, and corporate profits have fallen by about 15%.The average duration is 10 months.
Hundreds of thousands of Americans may lose work
Even a mild economic recession may cause at least hundreds of thousands of Americans to lose their jobs.As corporate profits decrease, the stock market may fall further.The support rate of US President Biden's downturn may also be hit again.
Recently, signs of weak economy in the United States are increasing.After the inflation, personal expenditure fell for the first time this year, and a US manufacturing index hit a two -year low in June.
After these data were announced, the chief American economist of JPMorgan Chase, after these data were announced, reducing the growth forecast of GDP (GDP) in the middle of the year to the level of decline in the "dangerous approach".
The depth and duration of decline depends to a large extent on how long the inflation will last, and how much pressure is the Fed is willing to apply the economy to reduce inflation to acceptable levels.
El Erian, chief economic adviser of the German financial service company Andlian Group, said that he was worried that the appearance of the development and stopping scenes similar to the development and pause of the 1970s.Economy.
El Erian said that such a strategy will launch a deeper economic recession and greater inequality in the future.
Fed Chairman Powell believes that despite the risk of economic recession, the economic situation is still enough to resist the Fed's interest rate hikes and avoid economic decline.
However, more and more private economists are not so optimistic.
Piegza, chief economist of Studi Financial Company, said: "The staggering economy is almost inevitable. The question has exceeded whether we will see a decline and the depth and duration of turning to decline."
Monday, Nomura Securities predicts in a research report that with the tightening of government policies and rising living expenses, many major economies will fall into a decline in the next 12 months, and global economic growth will slow down simultaneously.
The report predicts that the euro zone, Britain, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Canada will be in a recession with the United States.The report also believes that in order to control inflation, some central banks may choose to tighten the silver root, even if this will sacrifice growth, and then cut interest rates by 2023.
The faltering economy is almost inevitable.The question has exceeded whether we will see the recession, and the depth and duration of the turning decline.
—— Piegza, chief economist of Studi Financial Company
