Special draft
Russian President Putin has repeatedly stated that he has not planned to invade Ukraine for a few months.In the early morning, he was unable to understand why he insisted on "reckless and unprecedented attacks" for Wu.People may understand Putin's logic from the perspective of new realism and the perspective of European geographical environment.
The end of the Cold War is considered a victory of neo -liberalism.The new realism factions in international relations seem to be defeated. The views they advocate -the most important factor in international relations as international relations follow behind.
Putin believes that many actions in Western countries have gradually eroded Russia's security
However, Russia and Putin obviously attach great importance to security.Putin believes that many actions in Western countries have gradually eroded Russia's security. Even though Europe and the United States emphasize that NATO is a defense organization rather than offensive organizations, in his opinion, NATO's eastward expansion and other actions are inconsistent words and deeds.
In 2014, Russia's annexation of Crimea and inciting Eastern Ukraine's separated molecules to attack the Donbass region, John Mearsheimer, an international relationship scholar with a new realistic concept, was in diplomacy.Why is the Ukrainian crisis in the West?It is predicted that if the leaders and decision makers of Western countries cannot change their perspectives to look at Russia's security concept, the Ukrainian war will sooner or later erupt.
Mills Heimer said that the West's package policy, including NATO East Expansion, EU expansion, and promoting democratization, is a fire on Ukraine.
After the Cold War, the Soviet Union disintegrated, the Warsaw Treaty organization disintegrated, and the NATO commented with it not only did not dissolve, but continued to expand.Weak Russia can only tolerate.In April 2008, NATO considered to join the former Soviet franchisee Ukraine and Georgia to join. The United States expressed support, and France and Germany opposed it, worried that it was furious to Russia.
Finally, NATO member states reached a compromise: no procedures for incorporated into Ukraine and Georgia, but they expressed support for their applications, and also announced that "these countries will become NATO member states."
From the perspective of Russia, NATO is included in the two countries in front of its house, especially Ukraine, the second largest country in Europe, and stepped on the red line of Moscow.A Russian newspaper reported at the time that Putin was frankly told the then US President Bush: "If Ukraine is accepted to join NATO, it will no longer exist."
Ukraine also wants to "get rid of Russia into Europe."The European Union continued to expand east after the Cold War.Before the fall of Ukraine's pro -Russian government in February 2014, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov accused the European Union for trying to create a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe.Russia believes that the expansion of the European Union and NATO, especially into Ukraine, is an infringement of its scope of traditional forces.
In addition, Europe and the United States promote democratization around the world, including Ukraine.At the end of 2013, the Ukraine's outsourcing pro -EU demonstration led to the fall of his pro -Russian President Yanukovic.According to the leaked telephone recording, the US Assistant Secretary of State advocated the change of the Ukrainian regime and hoped that the political leader of the political leader Asiacura would be the prime minister. Later, he did serve as the Prime Minister.
Therefore, Russia has determined that Western intervening in Ukrainian politics is why Putin repeatedly referred to that Ukraine is Western puppet.In addition, the impact of democratization on the Russian citizens also threatens Putin regime.
Tim Marshall, a senior British journalist in the United Kingdom, is prisoner in the geography of the book: 10 maps can be seen in the world and explain Russia's concept of security from the perspective of geographical environment.
Although Russia spans Eurasia, its population, politics, economy, and culture concentrated in the vast and flat European plains.Moscow, Culture and Education and Education of Politics, Economics and Education, is located in the center of the European Plain, and has been easy to attack and difficult to defend since ancient times.
Russia has been invaded by the surrounding nations and countries in the past 500 years, including Mongolians, Polish, Swedish, Napoleonia, France, and Nazi Germany.
In the 16th century, Russia's first Tsar Ivan IV first implemented the defense principle of attacking.After the Ivan IV, the Tsar and the monarchs pushed the Russian frontier to the west of the Russian border to the Kalba Mountains, pushed north to the Baltic Sea, pushed south to the Caucasus Mountains, Lili, and Black Sea, and to the east to the Ulasa Mountains.Today, land such as Romania, Ukraine, White Ross, Poland, Baltic countries, and Caucasian countries, etc., ensure the security of the Russian empire to the greatest extent.This has also shaped the safety concept of Russian leaders in the past.
After World War II, the Cold War broke out in the United States and the Soviet Union.Geographically and psychological safety distance.
In addition, Russia lacks frozen ports. It is the Arctic Ocean in the north. The Eastern Vladivostok is far away from Moscow. Only Saint Petersburg and Black Sea Crimea in Sevastopol, which limits Russia's power projection.Therefore, when Ukraine hugs Europe in 2014, Putin won Crimea for the first time.Similarly, Putin's intervention in Syria's internal combat power to support all ally, Assad, is to ensure that Russia's naval base in the port of Taltus, Syria; if Assad falls, Russia is likely to lose a Mediterranean base base.
Putin wants to make Ukraine realize that Western countries are unwilling to send troops to defend him
Marshall said: "From the Grand Principality of Moscow, to the Emperor of Peter, Stalin, and thenUntil Putin, every Russian leader is facing the same problem. Regardless of whether the leader's ideology is Tsarist, communism, or skirt capitalism, the port is still frozen, and the European plain is still flat. "
Putin said his plan does not include occupying Ukraine.Moscow officially said it plans to support a pro -Russian regime in Ukraine.However, Moscow knows that supporting a puppet regime is not a long -term plan.Before the United States withdrew from Afghanistan last August, Taliban overturned the government supported by the United States.The regime supported by the former Soviet Union in Afghanistan also fell down after the Soviet army's evacuation.
Another purpose of Putin may be that the Ukraine people realize that Western countries have never been willing to send troops to resist the Russian army.This will force the Ukrainian people to reintegrate to continue to find a balance between the West, between Russia and the West, or re -invest in Russia.
