International Special
Fu Huiyun
Ukraine and Russian border war densely,Germany, who has always been regarded as the leader of European leaders, insisted on unwilling to provide fatal weapons for Ukraine, and only promised with many pressures Natural gas pipelines sanction Russia.The inconsistent pace of Germany and the allies has caused criticism. The silent and low -key rigorous style of Prime Minister Tsutz is not helpful to Germany's international image. Tsubz will pass the first major foreign policy test, It is also necessary to improve his communication method.
Tsutz took office on December 8 last year as German Prime Minister. At that time, he might think that the biggest challenge was to lead Germany out of the crown disease.Unexpectedly, the tension between Russia and Ukraine was continuously upgraded. The new Prime Minister of the domestic agenda during the campaign pushed it to the center of the international stage early.
During the election in September last year, Tonus portrays himself as a natural successor of former Prime Minister Merkel, emphasizing that he will continue Merkel's consistent stable and focused attitude in politics at home and abroad, evenPutting Merkel's iconic hands in the rhombus gesture in front of the abdomen.
However, Tsugs should have discovered that the governance of the country and leading Europe has not been reached by imitating Merkel for two months.The social Democratic party is now attacked, accused of failing to show leadership, sending confusion information, and in the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine and the West, a gentle position on Moscow.
In the Ukrainian crisis, the dissatisfaction of the international community's dissatisfaction with the Souls government is mainly manifested in two aspects: unwillingness to provide weapons for Ukraine, nor is it willing to abandon Beixi's second weather pipeline.These two positions are not new. Merkel also adhered to these two policies when he reigned, but why was it regarded as a German government's position in the hands of Tsumers, and he was no longer reliable ally?
Analysis believes that this is mainly related to the poor communication between the Tshuz government, and the members of the cabinet are related to each other rather than the unified voice.
Refusing to provide weapons to reflect the helmet to deal with the Ukrainian crisis and be laughed at
After the Ukrainian crisis is upgraded, Spain sent frigates to the Black Sea; Denmark sent fighters to Lithuania and in theThe Eastern Baltic Sea deployed frigates; the United States ordered the army to stand for a stand.These are in sharp contrast to Germany's refusal to provide weapons to Ukraine.
In explaining why Germany refused to provide weapons for Ukraine, Germany was responsible for the atrocities of the Second World War, so they could not transport weapons to the conflict area.He pointed out that it is a policy of not providing weapons to the crisis areas for many years, and the former Prime Minister Merkel also held the same position.This position was correct before, and it is still correct.
However, critics pointed out that in recent years, Germany has exported billions of dollars of military equipment to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, which has been accused of infringing human rights in the conflict of Yemen.In addition, in 2014 and 2016, Berlin also provided rifle and anti -tank missiles to the Syrian Kurds to support them to crack down on the "Islamic State" terrorist organization.
In late January, the German government promised to transport 5,000 military helmets to Ukraine, hoping to use this to calm some criticism, and the result was counterproductive, but Berlin was laughed at internationally.
The mayor of Kiev, Ukraine, Kirinco, said that Germany's proposal to provide helmets must be a joke, making him speechless.He also ridiculed: "What kind of support will Germany provide? Pillow?"
Ukrainian ambassador to Berlin Melnik is more gentle. He welcomes Germany's "symbolic gesture", but saidThat's not enough. Ukraine needs hundreds of thousands of soldiers, and helmets are not the most urgent equipment.
Politico said that the information that Germany provides helmets to Ukraine is actually that Germany has begun to change its position: In the pastMilitary equipment.However, the Minister of Defense Lang Brecht claimed that these helmets were "a very clear support signal", which made the Souls government laughed at.
A official of Berlin acknowledged: "This is a disaster." Ros, a member of the Democratic Party of Social Democratic Party and the Federal House of Federal House of Social House, said that Berlin needs to better clarify his policies and behindreason.
The alliance government has their own persistence on negotiations for several weeks to reach the agreement
Shuerz cannot express clear positions on the Ukrainian issue. It is also related to domestic politics.
The new German government consists of three political parties, and is the first three -party alliance in modern Germany.The so -called people are mixed, and the three parties have their own persistence on various issues. It is not easy to reach an agreement.
In this crisis, the Democratic Democratic Party of the middle left -wing Social Democratic Party in the middle tends to negotiate with Russia to ease tension.However, the Liberal Democratic Party, which belongs to the Green Party and Minister of Foreign Minister Berbque, is in favor of adopting a tougher position.
The differences in the Social Democratic Party are particularly serious. The secretary -general Cunitt and the leader of the party's parliament group Munzinech strongly opposed the provision of weapons to Ukraine.Several leaders, including Minister of Defense Langbrecht, also strongly opposed to incorporating the controversial Beixi Pipeline into the potential sanctions on Russia.
After a few weeks of quarrel within the Social Party, the end of January publicly stated that they would comply with the agreement reached with Merkel last year with the US President Biden, that is, if Russia invaded Ukraine, Beixi No. 2 will become sanctions.Object.
Nevertheless, Tsutz still avoids mentioning that it is preparing to put on hold on the Beixi No. 2 pipeline plan.The 1,200 kilometer -long gas pipeline directly connected to northeastern Germany from western Russia via the Baltic sea.If it is put into use, it will double the natural gas to Russia to Germany each year to 110 billion cubic meters.The pipeline was completed in September last year, but has not been approved by Germany.
Beixi No. 2 topic
Singing against the United States?
The United States has been continuously put pressure on the United States recently, and in Germany to clearly express its statement, it can't help doubt whether there are differences between the two major powers.
U.S. President Biden denied the difference in Virtue after meeting German Chancellor Tsoz in the White House on February 7, and said, "Germany is completely reliable ... I have no doubt about Germany."Biden also announced at a joint press conference that if Russia invaded Ukraine, "there will be no Beixi No. 2, we will end it."Erz continued to be vague.He stated at a press conference that Germany was consistent with the United States on the issue of sanctioning Russia.However, when the reporter asked him to comment on Beixi II, Shuerz did not directly name the name of the pipeline, and refused to confirm that he would abandon the pipeline.This makes people wondering, is he really "consistent" with Biden?
However, Tsutz clearly clarified the German position when he dinner with many Senators in the German Embassy that night.McConal, a minority party leader in the United States Senate, told reporters that Souls made a clear guarantee that once Russia violated Ukraine, Beixi No. 2 would not be used.
Why are youIn public, it is vague and private in private. In the Senate Foreign Affairs Commission, Sen said that Senki said that it was to maintain a "strategic ambiguity" to maintain the action of the Kremlin.Li Shi said that the United States will do so on mutual important topics.He said he believed that the United States and Germany had the same position in Beixi II.
Stein Miller, a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy of the Brookings Society of the American Think Tank, said in an interview with the "Politician" news website that Tonalz's unwillingness to make public stance is also related to domestic concerns.
She pointed out that if Tsugs announced that she would abolish Beixi No. 2, the consortium built and owned by the pipeline will file a lawsuit to seek losses.The German court has previously taken such problems seriously, that is, when the former Prime Minister Merkel canceled the nuclear power project after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.As a result, Tsutz should avoid being trapped in a chaotic and highly anticipated legal dispute.
Steinmille said that another problem that may bother to bother Tsharz is his relatively weak political status.The Social Democratic Party he led was only 25.7%of the support votes in the federal elections in September last year; it took a few months to set up the government, and Tonalz came to power after the vote ended three months.Therefore, publicly announced that it will be put on holding Beixi No. 2 that may cause political rebound and threaten his leadership position.
Germany is unwilling to provide weapons for Ukraine and whether it is delayed that it will affect its relationship with the ally?Huang Yipeng, an associate professor of the Department of Political Department of the National University of Singapore, answered inquiries by an email to answer inquiries that so far, Germany's actions and reactions are consistent with its main foreign policy posture as a "flexible power" after 1945.Even during the Cold War, when Germany was still a divided country, Germany always cautiously contact the Soviet Union through the OSTPOLITILK, that is, in contact with the Soviet Union instead of the Soviet Union).Therefore, it is not surprising that the division of characters between the three Western European giants is not surprising: cooperation between Britain and the United States protruding the belligence and threats of Russia for severe revenge; France medals; Germany urges all partiesOptions.
As for the performance of Tsumarz in this crisis, Huang Yipeng believes that Souls seems to let French President Macron play the role of senior European politicians on behalf of the European Union.He pointed out that Tsutz has always been closely coordinated with Macron to find diplomatic and non -military solutions that resolve crises, but Macron has become the focus of everyone's attention.
Europe and the United States are worried about the expansion of Russian influence
Since the construction of Beixi No. 2, there has been continuous controversy.Two parallel pipes.Among them, the No. 1 pipeline opened in 2011, and No. 2 announced that it will continue to be controversial since 2015, mainly in the United States, Britain, Ukraine, and many EU countries that the project will have a greater influence on Russia on Europe.
Before the Beixi pipeline was completed, Germany imported natural gas from Russia through other European countries, including White Ross, Ukraine, Poland, etc. in Eastern Europe.After the Beixi pipeline was completed, Russia could bypass Eastern European countries and export natural gas directly to Germany.
The United States and other countries are worried that the opening of Beixi II will further change Europe's energy balance in energy.At present, Russia needs Ukraine because a large number of natural gas sold to Europe was exported to other parts of Europe through Ukraine.
If the Beixi No. 2 is enabled, and the first pipeline, the number of natural gas exports exported to Germany to Germany will increase the annual export volume to 110 billion cubic meters, which is about half of its annual export to Europe.
The operator of the Beixi Pipeline is the Russian State -owned Russian Natural Gas Company (Gazprom).More than one -third of European natural gas supply comes from the company.
Beixi No. 2 was paved in September last year, but German Energy Supervision officials may not be able to provide certification for this pipeline until the second half of this year, and then it can start "gas transmission".
For how the United States allows Beixi No. 2 to "break its breath", the United States CNN said that sanctions are a potential means.The United States adopted a pipeline in 2017, 2019 and 2020.In January 2021, the Trump administration even imposed sanctions on Russian natural gas companies used to build Beixi No. 2.
Nevertheless, the pipeline has been paved, which has caused the issue of whether additional sanctions can effectively prevent it from going online.
The German media criticized that the "almost invisible"
Shuoerz has always been low -key. Now Macron's high -profile mediation has led to his low -keyThere was even a label of "Where is the Diaolz".
Merkel, who stepped down in December last year, thought that he was low -key and was well -known.It seems that Tsugs wants to imitate it, but the effect is not good.
The German Merg Mirror Weekly said that Merkel is not known for frequent exposure or exciting speeches on the media, but Tsutz "seems to want to surpass her in the missing art."The weekly magazine accused Tzu of "almost invisible and invisible."
German political scientist Muenxi said in an interview with Agence France -Presse: "The way of Tsubos to speak and communicate seems inappropriate.Instead of expressed in a clear and clear manner in accordance with the requirements of the current media world. "
Although Tsutz used to thank the reporter's questions at the press conference, he often avoids directly answering.Murnci said that Tsutz may try to create a "professional and serious" impression in the media environment that "everyone is talking and commenting on everything."But if the effect is not good, the image of "capable" that he cleverly operates during the campaign may not be guaranteed.
German political scientist Feng Yeke told AFP: "In the big popularity or international crisis, tell people that you can rely on me, I have rich experience, I know what you are doing '"He believes that the way of communicating with Tzuz" still has a lot of room for improvement. "
