After the Malaysian Prime Minister Anhua came to power in November 2022, there were frequent rumors that the National Alliance of the Field Camp was conspiring to overthrow the unity government.However, since the end of 2023, a number of indigenous unity party members support Anwar, consolidate his three -pointer in Congress, and make the political situation stabilize.But in this calmness, suddenly it was revealed that the national alliance was brewing to overthrow the government's "Dubai Action", which made it difficult to distinguish the truth, and it also made Malaysian politics again.
Since the establishment of the government in November 2022, the news of the National Alliance of the Field Camp (referred to as the National Alliance) has been reported at least three times to overthrow the government, including the "Jakarta Action" at the end of 2022, and "London Action" at the beginning of last year.And the "Dubai Action" circulating at the end of December last year.
However, since October last year, five indigenous unity party members have supported the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar in the form of "changing the party".The inverted agreement, the Sarawak Party Alliance (referred to as the Sarawak) and the Sabah People's Alliance (referred to as the Saudi League) have repeatedly stated that they will continue to support the unity government, which makes people feel that it is unlikely that the national alliance must take power in the way to seize power in the way.Essence
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When Dubai's action was like a thunderstorm, there were many discussions, doubtful.Some people say that this is because the number of people looking at the countless people see more and more people, and they start to worry; some people think that the National League is hoping to rush to reach the goal of changing the world before the current Sudan Abdullah stepped down on January 31 this year, because becauseSultan Abdullah has handled this kind of situation, that is, the experience of the "Sheraton Incident" in 2020.
Some people say that the National Alliance must complete the overthrow of the government plan before Johor Sultan Ibrahim served at the end of January, because Johor Sultan seems to support the unity government to continue governing.
The so -called windless waves, Liu Weicheng, a lecturer at the Department of Political and Media of Raman University in Malaysia, told the United Morning Post that Dubai's operation should be true, and the reason why the National League did so is to stop losses and avoid more members of parliamentarians.
He said that there were too many members of the opposition party before. If you do nothing at this moment, more members may continue to fall."Before that, those opposition members who changed their positions to support Anwar were not further dealt with except that they were frozen by their party members. After supporting Anwar, they received more regional allocation funds, so that they would serve voters and deeply cultivate constituencies. This means that it meansIn order to give up the political costs and risks that support the support of the National League, it is not too high, so the opposition party does need to do something to counter, and the faster the better. "
Although the leaders of the National Alliance have denied, the Anwar and the National Front (referred to as the Barisan Nasional) and the UMNO Chairman Ahmad Zahi have publicly stated that they have already known that Dubai is acting.Liu Weicheng believes that this is the government hopes to make a pre -initiative.Instead of letting the national alliance continue to act directly, it is better to disclose it directly, and this has two great benefits to the government. One is that the government's passive posture in Dubai's operations into active, and the other is the progress of interference.
Liu Weicheng said: "After the incident is all over the sky, all media, political parties and public opinion will focus on the opposition leaders' every move, which will make the preparations of the opposition party not convenient. The disclosure of things will also lead to some negotiations, orThe unity government member who has to move closer to the National Alliance has changed his mind to avoid being named to overthrow the government. Therefore, publicity in advance can prevent the national alliance from contacting more members. "
The doubts of Dubai Action Heavier reporters are actually senior civil servants
However, the current affairs commentator Xu Guowei believes that Dubai's doubts are heavy.A doubt is that on the occasion of overthrowing the rumors of the unity government, Azmin, director of the National League Propaganda and the highest director of the Turkish Dragon Party, not only did not avoid suspicion, but instead disclosed in social media in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the UAE, and revealed that he was starting to set off.The former Prime Minister Mahathir was discussed together.
Xu Guowei said in an interview: "The doubt is that if you really have to conspire abroad to overthrow the government, who will disclose his own whereabouts on social media? From a political point of view, since this time point to overthrow the government's successful opportunity,Low, there is no need to do a Dubai operation that everyone in the world knows in the wild party to destroy its own prestige. "
Azmin is the leader of the opposition party of the Selangor State Council.After he shared a number of photos with his wife on the church on Facebook on December 27 last year, he began to circulate news about Dubai's operations.According to Azmin's Facebook post, he met with Mahathir on December 20 before going abroad.
After the Federal Communications Department's Deputy Director of the Community Communications Bureau, Yi Simer revealed on December 30 that many national league members and ruling members planned to plan Dubai during the year -end holiday to the UAE vacation.Capitolists who lure the government to support the National Alliance.
Xu Guowei pointed out that the news of the Dubai action was not the leader and member of the party and the opposition party, but the deputy director of the senior civil servant -the Community Communications Bureau.The overthrow of the government should not belong to the duties and work categories of the Community Communications Bureau.
The predecessor of the Community Communications Bureau was a special affairs bureau established during the 2000 national power. The main responsibility is to engage in political propaganda for the government.It is hoped that the Alliance (Pakatan Harapan) has always accused the Special Affairs Bureau of the Special Affairs Bureau as the use of public funds to self -propaganda and discredit the tools of the opposition party. Therefore, after we came to power in 2018, the Pakatan Harapan government closed the Special Affairs Bureau.However, after the National Alliance government took power through the in power through the set of in power in 2020, it resumed the Special Affairs Bureau and renamed the Community Communications Bureau.Now united the government to retain it and be responsible for publicity for the government.
According to Xu Guowei's analysis, the responsibilities of the Community Communications Bureau should not cover the piercing politics secrets, including the revealed Dubai operation of the government."The breaking news claims to have the intelligence of participating in the Dubai actors. Does it surpass the copy? The news also claims that many ruling leaders and officials involve ... If the Dubai action is really a matter, will the government clear these involved?Zi Xuwu, is it (the news)? "
However, whether it is indeed or false, the Anwar government has not taken action against the involved or the news.Facts have also proved that the rumors of Dubai's operation have had a negative impact on the National Alliance and consolidated the status of united government.
Azmhaha Mountain, a senior researcher at the Malaysian Think Tank Nushan Dala Strategy Research Institute, pointed out that some people believe that as an opposition party, the National Alliance seems to only care about seizing the power and did not give play to the function of checking the government in parliament.
Scholar: "The Cervical Incident" is unlikely to repeat
Despite the difficulty of distinguish between the virtual and reality, the Dubai action still attracted attention. One of the reasons is that it is exposed, which is just the time when the Malaysian Anti -Corruption Commission investigated the Minister of Finance Da Yin before.After the Anti -Corruption AssociationMu Yuding, the former Prime Minister, the Chairman of the National League and the Turkish Troupe, and the former former Prime Minister and former vice chairman of UMNO, who have also been accused of participating in Dubai's operation.
Public opinion believes that this is a warning of the Anwar government's use of the Anti -Corruption Council, and even the people who may participate in Dubai's operations, thereby confirming that this operation has indeed pose a certain threat to the Anwar government.
However, in terms of the current situation, the second Sheraton incident in Malaysia may not be large, which has not yet formed the conditions that such changes in such events.
Liu Weicheng pointed out that the Sheraton incident will occur. The main reason is that the Pakatan Harapan government is divided within the Pakatan Harapan government, and the former Prime Minister Mahathir and the People's Justice Party Chairman Anhua compete for the Prime Minister, making the opposition organic.In addition, it was the first time that the Malaysian politics at that time had such a situation. There was no precedent. The Malay ruler did not know how to deal with it, whether the head of state must be intervened, and how to intervene to be unconstitutional. As a result, the royal family could not play timely arbitration in time.Role.
The two major conditions have promoted the Sheraton incident, but if the national alliance wants to repeat history through Dubai's actions, it is not so easy.Liu Weicheng said that the National Palace has experience in this regard, and the Anwar government has no serious division within the government. It has the advantage of governing. There are many resources and public wares that can use the Heri -land to repeat the incident.
Liu Weicheng analyzed: "At present, Dubai's operation is not yet mature, and it will not pose a direct threat to the Anwar government. The Anwar government has another advantage, that is, the endorsement of Johor Sultan Ibrahim. Sudan YiBoraht is waiting for the head of state. He has shouted to politics more than once, and he tends to be stable. Therefore, it is expected that he will not bother to try to change the status quo. After he serves as the head of state, he should continue to support the Anwar government.The method stabilizes the political situation and does not let the Sheraton incident repeat it. "
As for the hidden concerns and disadvantages of the Anwar government, it is a lack of strong public opinion caused by the lack of strong Malaysian votes, the public opinion caused by the dissatisfaction of living expenses, and the changes in East Malaysia politics, especially the Sabah Political Bureau.
Sabah politics is currently undercover, and Anwar's allies Saudi, Sabah Minxing Party, and UMNO Sabah have recently reported differences, and the Sabah State Council will expire in 2025. All of them may bring the united government.variable.
Liu Weicheng pointed out that Anwar must deal with the problem of Sabah so as not to cause bone card effects at the federal level.
However, Xu Guowei believes that Anwar's other East Malaysia Political League Sarawak is the strong pillar of united government.
"If the opposition party wants to overthrow the unity government, it is necessary to get at least 36 ruling members of the ruling members to change support. Furthermore, it is restricted by the reflex hopping method.Talents. At present, those who have enough people to have enough people and may be attracted to the camp are the Barisan Nasional with 30 national conference seats, and 23 Sandy League. Unless these two major alliances leave together, the united government will be the government.Instead; if just the BN or Sand League leave, the unity government is still sufficient to be in power. "
He also said: "The Sand League is one of the united government winners, and has the official position of the central government. In addition, the last Sarawak election was held in 2021, which means that starting this year, the Sand League will prepare for the next state election.For example, continue to stay in the unity government to fight the political interests of the Sand League, because the Democratic Action Party, which was once the main opponent, it is difficult for the second state to attack the Sand League.And cooperation with the National Alliance must bear the price of cooperation with the Islamic Party. Therefore, until the next state election, the Saudi League is not necessary to leave the unity government at all. "
As for the Barisan Nasional and UMNO, Xu Guowei pointed out that although individual members may have other thoughts, UMNO has modified the party constitution to deal with the council members of the chapter, so this stage is not enough to let the united government fall.
UMNO to prevent the members of the members' violation of the party's intention to support the hostile camp. Two new regulations have been formulated earlier. Those who violate the party will be regarded as retreat and automatically lose their qualifications.New Yuan).
Public opinion is mostly accusing the national alliances that the people of Malaysia are tired of turning the sky
The Dubai operation of overthrowing the government has been booming. Malaysia netizens' messages and comments from all parties are mostly accusing the national alliance that is said to drive this plan.The government's approach is annoyed.
Xu Guowei said that most people are tired of seizing power and replacement of prime ministers in the past few years, and do not want the political situation to be turbulent again."This may also be why the Iraqi Party emphasized that they would not play the trick of buying members to seize power. This is how to offset some people's dissatisfaction of the Dubai operations to the National League."
Political analyst Au Nu believes that after the Dubai operation was exposed, there were another eight more members of the Council Party that would announce support for Anwar during the resumption of Congress at the end of February, which means that the opposition members know that it is currently overturning to overthrow the overthrow of overthrowingThe government is not easy, and it will also angered voters, and both ends are not shore.
He said: "Since the Xilanden incident in 2020, all the actions of overthrowing the government have ended in failure. Members are now more sensitive to political fatigue experienced by voters, so once there are rumors that overthrow the government, members of the members are all all members of the government.Eager to draw a clear boundary, it proves that they have not participated in it. "
The focus of the Ma Guojia to the Dubai operation is not expected to be high. Earlier, earlier, that is, in October last year, many local party members have supported Anhua one after another.discuss.
Liu Weicheng said that it can be judged that the public now does not care about such rumors of overthrowing the government, or it has no feeling."In addition to being tired of the political situation with too many changes, there is also a reason for the pressure of high living expenses, which reduces people's degree of investment in political issues."
