David Shambaugh, a well -known American and Asian affairs experts, proposed in Taipei that China is facing the predicament of the middle income traps. If the current political system is not adjusted, the future issue will only intensify.

Shen Dawei has served as the State Council and the National Security Council, which has worked in the Carter administration in the United States. He is currently a professor at the Elite School of International Affairs of George Washington University and the director of China Policy Research Project.

He made a special speech on the official international seminar sponsored by Taiwan on Thursday (November 30) that compared with the reform and opening up of Deng, Jiang, and Hu full of vibrant society, Chinese society is now filled with uncertainty;In the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the number of "security" is much more than "development", and almost everything can be "safe".

Shen Dawei believes that this shows that China's leaders and regimes are actually very unsafe and unconfident.

He also mentioned that the mainland economy is in stagnation and shrinking, local debt has risen, and exports are declining; private enterprises and large technology companies are even more affected by regulatory blows, full of "zombie companies" that must rely on external subsidies to survive.

Shen Dawei pointed out that a key issue that develops to the current stage of China is definitely a relationship between politics and economy.To break through the middle income traps and achieve modernization, the political system must play a promotion role.

The so -called "medium income trap" refers to the rapid economic growth of a country and after reaching the middle income level per capita GDP (gross domestic product), development is stagnant.

Shen Dawei quoted economists Daron ACEMOGLU and James A. Robinson's views of why the country failed (why National Fail: The Origins of Power, and POVERTY), emphasizingIt is necessary to get rid of the "squeeze country" and become a "tolerant country" in order to get rid of the middle income trap.

Shen Dawei pointed out that according to this standard, China needs to be transformed into non -personal centralized countries, and it must be more response, tolerance, compromise, transparent, and decentralization.However, he believes that China has abandoned this path in the past 10 years and entered the shrinking and rigid stage.

Therefore, he judged that if China does not adjust its current political system, these problems will only intensify in the future.

In addition, for Former US Secretary of State Kissinger on Wednesday (November 29) is 100 years old.During the death, Shen Dawei described during the meeting that Kissinger was the person who opened the gate of the US -China relations, and emphasized that he and Carter's contribution to US -China relations were better than any American.

Shen Dawei also mentioned that he has been in awe of Kissinger's many insight books, and Kissinger has just launched a book about artificial intelligence this year.Old people are trying to understand artificial intelligence. "

Shen Dawei emphasized that Kissinger's book was by no means written by the writer. "I have talked to him about this problem and knows people who cooperate with him. Like other research assistants, they help him to study"Essence