The disadvantages of Ke Wenzhe were twists and turns, and the storm continued to burn.The Taiwan Higher Court revoked the previously confession of the previous Taipei District Court on September 4, asking the local court to reopen the detention court.
The previous week, the Taiwan Prosecutor investigated the "Case of Datoman Baltic Bald in Jinghua City" and detained the former Taipei City Mayor, the current party chairman of the people, and Peng Zhensheng, the current party chairman of the people.After nearly 70 hours of detaing by the Department, Ke Wenzhe was "invited to return" in the early morning of September 2, and Peng Zhensheng was detained.The Taipei District Procuratorate immediately stated that he was not convinced that the Taipei District Court rejected the ruling of Ke Wenzhe, and submitted a protest to the court, requesting that he was transferred to the Taiwan High Court.
Public opinion in Taiwan, because Ke Wenzhe's reported judicial cases were not only a case of Jinghua City, but also the reconstruction of the Taipei First Fruit Market, the reorganization of the land of Shilin Science Park, and the political donation scandal.Decidential crimes, but the polls show that the people's party support has been severely damaged.In this year's election, will the "third forces" and "key minority" beyond the two major parties of Taiwan will end?Will Taiwanese political scenes lose a power to check and balance blue and green?
Ogasawara Honor, a professor of honorary lectures at Tsinghua University in Taiwan, said in an interview with the Japanese Asahi Shimbun last week that after Ke Wenzhe broke out the judicial scandal, it is estimated that the people's party support will be cut off, and only 10%of iron powder will be left. The DPPIn order to recapture the votes of the loss of this presidential election, they will attack Ke Wenzhe.Professor Ogasawara predicts that in 2026, the municipalities and local counties and cities in Taiwan and local counties and cities will "reappear the blue and green parties, and the people's party may be marginalized."
There are also analysis that the problem may be that the third forces themselves, the design of the two -party and multi -party system has no absolute answer to the best.Ye Yaoyuan, a lecture on the International Research Lecture of St. Tatstore University in the United States, explained to that although Ke Wenzhe came to an end, "the third forces would not disappear because of this."
2024 How do ordinary people see the future political situation after the Taiwan election?
Professor Ye said that the eight legislators of the people's party "do not follow the party (Ke Wenzhe)". Then it depends on the party's party, and whether this person has the ability to reorganize the morale of the party to judgeThe people's party lives and death.He told reporters that even if the people's party cannot go, it will not be completely bubble until the legislators and presidential elections in 2028.There is a political figure that is transported by the time, and there will be new third forces. "
Nick Marro, the chief analyst of the British Economist Think Tank (EIU), analyzed that the key to the existence of the people's party is to re -win the public trust."In terms of fairness, the people's party does face the crisis of identity." Ma Zhiang explained that the attraction of the people's party to voters is that it once represented the third choice outside the blue and green parties in Taiwan.Resonance, especially young voters, they tend to be skeptical of the Kuomintang's relatives, but they are anxious to solve the problem of housing or low salary for the DPP in the past ten years, but now they find that the people's party is "saying a set of things to do.set".
Image source, Sun Wei-Mang
Third forces encounter severe damage
The latest thousand people's transfer results on September 3 showed that the proportion of Tainan citizens has fallen from 15%to 6%left in January 3.
The polls published on August 26, which is published on August 26, pointed out that the people's climbing is as high as 65.3%, which is the highest since the party's 2019 party.The poll also pointed out that most of the traditional people's party supporters are mostly voters under 40 years old. The survey found that interviewees aged 20 to 29 are more disgusted with the people's party (45.6%) higher than goodwill (38.3%), 30 30, 30By the age of 39, it was even more obvious. 58.7%of the respondents disgusted the people's party, and 28.2%had a good opinion.
Another media mirror news also announced the results of polls on August 27. The DPP supports 40.0%, the Kuomintang is 21.2%, and the people's party is 14.4%. The cross -analysis shows that the people's party 20 to 24 support supportsThe degree was 22.1%, which had lost 17.7%of the survey results of the agency last time, and the support of the ages of 25 to 29 also fell to 30.7%, which was reduced by 11.7%compared with the last survey.
Analysis said that the young ethnic group is the core of the party's party branch holder, and the loss of their trust is equivalent to hitting the party's overall support rate.
However, when Ke Wenzhe was detained last week, the supporters of hundreds of Ke Wenzhe were sitting and gathered at the gate of the Taipei Procuratorate. According to Taiwan media reports, supporters shouted the slogan from time to time, "The program must be justice! Justice must be fair!"Believe in the innocence!"He is willing to reflect on improvement. Every time I get along, I feel his simplicity and kindness.
Another supporter of Ke Fan and signed Xu Yachun also left a message saying, "You have worked hard to take a good rest, and you will be moved back to tears when you see it at 3 o'clock.Pretty people " Economist's think tank, Ma Zhion, said, "The attention of the party's party on integrity governance is also a main selling point of the party. This is why the current financial scandal is so key to the party." He said that the party's leadership is facing the heart of the heart.One charges make supporters frustrated.Because in the past, the people's party shouted "change into truth", but things are still "politically as usual."
However, will the people party be foam?Ma Zhiang said it was still unlikely.He emphasized that Ke Wenzhe had previously set off a wave in Taiwan's political arena. In the face of political tsunami, there are still several loyal supporters.However, Ke Ruo disappeared on the political stage, and the party's future election seems to be more difficult.
Multi -party or two -party system?
Ke Wenzhe is in a political turmoil, and the people's party support has been heavily created, which has also triggered the concerns of Taiwan's public opinion on the passing of "third forces" or "multi -party systems". Some people insist that multi -party politics is better than both parties politics.But is this the truth that all circles agree?
Professor Zhang Junhao, director of the Political Department of Donghai University, for example, the formation of multi -party systems in European countries has its special historical and social background, such as the diversification of language, economy, and ideology. In additionCongress is a political center and designed a "proportion representative system" (referring to the standard of allocating parliamentary seats from the percentage of votes obtained from each election group, such as 30%of voters voting to a certain party, then the party's party that the party, then the party's party that the party.You can get 30%of the seats in the parliament), and multi -party systems are more likely to appear.
Professor Zhang, Taiwan ’s Legislative Court has selected a majority of members with a single constituency and two votes.More than %, even a seat cannot be obtained, which is naturally not good for the small party.
However, Zhang Junhao emphasized whether the multi -party system is better than the two -party system, and it is necessary to depend on countries.He believes that in diversityAnd social differences are naturally suitable for multi -party systems, but in one around one and two ideological territories, the two ideological territories of the unified independence are a society that clearly confronts and the trial resistance. The two -party system is more appropriate.For example, in the perspective of Europe, multi -party cooperation has occurred from time to time, and the stability of the government may be affected, and the coherence and efficiency of policy implementation may be reduced.In some cases, the proportional representative system may make some extremist parties represent representativeness and lead to political extremes.
Taking Taiwan as an example, Ma Zhiang said that the so -called "power corruption" and reviewing the history of the DPP.The DPP has now become a ruling party, which is part of the system.Therefore, he believes that "the existence of the third party may be an important tool for continuous challenging the current situation of political.
Some analysts said that after the people's party won the eight seats of the Legislative Yuan this year, after becoming a key minority, she tried to cooperate with the Kuomintang of the Kuomintang of the Wild Party, and she wanted to expand the scope of the power of the legislators and the Legislative Yuan.EssenceBehind this issue is the power confrontation of the multi -party and two -party system, as well as the cabinet system or the presidential system in Taiwan. The "key minority" small party wants to transfer political power from the president to the Congress.
Professor Ye Yaoyuan believes that Taiwan's politics is naturally easy to become the duel of the two major parties (the unified independence field represents behind) because of China's and unified independence factors, coupled with the design of the election system.Therefore, Professor Ye has questioned by the people and others that "transcending blue -green politics" in Taiwan.
"Most of the supporters of the people's party just don't like blue and green, but they don't know that they have no way to surpass blue and green. After all, China's threat to Taiwan and the issue of unification of independence are never fake issues." Ye YaoyuanEssence
