Han Yonghong: The Taiwanese election drag the drag?

The Taiwan election entered the countdown for two days in 2024. The last moment should have been climaxed, and the audience's heartbeat accelerates, but in reality, the Taiwan election is like a basketball game to enter the garbage time.Drag the drag.

To talk about large and small drama, the political scene in Taiwan is still densely detonated in the past few days.China/Story20240109-1461089 "R = NOFOLLOW TARGET = _Blank> Suspected Cloud , illegitimate children's suspicion, the mainland selection of disputes , "Missile" oolong , /A>, Guo Taiming stands up and opens the trust cloud, and there is a dispute between the abandoned disputes that have been burn, high -end vaccine procurement , and so on.

Therefore, it is not 100 % accurate to say that Taiwan's elections enter the garbage.The so -called garbage time on the basketball field means that the victory and defeat have been determined, and the participating teams are just procrastinating time to the end of the game. The Taiwan election in front of the game is still possibly of turning.Stress, and repeatedly lost points; the backward Kuomintang and the people's party are still fighting.However, the ranking of the three groups of candidates still remains unchanged, as if he was nailed firmly. No matter how new topics and new news emerged, they only fell a small trouble and could not truly lead the topic or reverse the election.

The main reason for this situation is that the two camps and blue and green parties have adopted a conservative strategy to adhere to the basic disk from the beginning.Between Beijing and Washington, voters' demands and their original limits, they could not make a refreshing vision. The banner they played was either the road of the past eight years or the way to find earlier.The main purpose of the Democratic Progressive Party's campaign advertisement is to open along the original road, and the Kuomintang's heavy advertisement is calling for the memory of Ma Ying -jeou in 2008.It is no wonder that they cannot cross the basic disk, cannot attract new supporters, and even "blood loss" to the third forces- Ke Wenzhe's Baiying .

Ke Wenzhe proposed to surpass blue and green and establish a new political culture, which is greatly attractive to young voters.However, his discussion is blurred and has limited attraction to elderly voters.

This Taiwan election lacks new ideas. The charm of the three presidential candidates is the weakest of previous elections; but this is the most important election in Taiwan for many years. The sacred votes voted by voters not only determine the future of TaiwanIt is more related to Sino -US relations, which affects Asia -Pacific peace, and major countries in the world have to pay attention to.

Sino-US high-level is highly nervous. In the past few days, Liu Jianchao, Minister of the CPC Central Committee, visited the United States.REL = NOFOLLOW TARGET = _Blank> Talk with Fenner, Chief Assistant to President's Guoan Affairs ; China and the United States resume the Ministry of Defense Work Conference, and the Minister of Commerce of the two countries also passed the phone.The relationship between the two sides even conducted a final communication to prepare for the situation after the Taiwan election on January 13.

If the Taiwan Strait starts a comprehensive war, how much harm will it affect the global economy?

The US Bloomberg estimated this week's estimated price was US $ 10 trillion (S $ 13.32 trillion), which is equivalent to 10%of the global GDP, far exceeding the Russian and U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -U -Wage War, crown disease and the global financial crisis.Destruction.

Bloomberg's estimated model is based on the United States involved in the Taiwan Strait War and successfully assembled allies on the premise of strict economic sanctions on the mainland.Considering the important position of Taiwan in the global semiconductor industry, the importance of the Taiwan Strait to global shipping and the shock that the financial market may suffer, Bloomberg estimates that the start of cross -strait war will cause global GDP to lose 10%.16.7%.If the mainland blocks the Taiwan Strait for one year, it will cause 5%of the global economy, 12.2%in Taiwan, 8.9%in the mainland, and 3.3%in the United States.

Bloomberg concluded that the cost of war on both sides of the strait is so huge, even those who are the most dissatisfied with the status quo should not take risks to try to change.

Can this status quo be maintained?At this moment, cross -strait relations are indeed in the most delicate situation.On the one hand, the mainland has long positioned Lai Qingde, the most likely DPP candidate to be elected as "Taiwan independence stubborn molecules". The risks faced by cross -strait relations are more than when Tsai Ing -wen came to power eight years ago, and in 2022 Perosi visited Taiwan to Taiwan.high.Scholars analyzed that after the voting of Saturday, , even immediately announced a deterrent operation such as military exercises in Taiwan.