The surge in the survey of Chinese balloons over Taiwan has attracted the attention of the Taiwan military. Some experts believe that this is a ambiguous warning that China deliberately sent to voters a few weeks ago in the Taiwan presidential election.

The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense reported that according to its daily statistics on Chinese military activities near Taiwan, it can occasionally discover the balloon floating from China since last month, and the number of balloons in recent times has increased.Taiwan officials have rarely reported reports on Chinese balloon activities before.

Most of the recently appeared on the coastline of Taiwan.However, according to the air balloon path released by the Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan, a balloon flew over Taiwan Island on Monday.Of the four balloon discovered on Tuesday, three flew over Taiwan Island, two of which flew over the eastern waters of the Pacific Ocean in Taiwan.Another balloon flew over Taiwan Island on Wednesday.

The report of the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense also pointed out that the flight trajectory of some balloon is not far from the military base on the island.Among the four balloons discovered on Tuesday, three were found in the air 200 to 300 kilometers away from the Taichung Air Force Qingquan Gang Base.The Ministry of National Defense refused to explain how closer the balloon distance is base.

These balloons do not seem to have a direct military threat to Taiwan. The Taiwan Ministry of Defense said last month that these balloons seemed to be to collect atmosphere data, but they refused to disclose detailed information about the balloon monitored this week.

"The Ministry of National Defense is closely monitoring and controlled, appropriate, and reorganizing its floating path to judge the research and analysis," said when the Ministry of Defense spokesman said when answering the balloon questions on Thursday.

At least so far, Taiwan has not experienced the panic that Americans showed last year. At that time, a huge Chinese high -altitude monitoring balloon drifted over the United States.China has denied that the balloon has a spy nature, but Washington does not believe this statement. This dispute has worsen the relationship between the two countries for several months.

In 2023, the United States shot down a Chinese monitoring balloon along the coast of South Carolina.China denies that the balloon has a spy nature, but Washington does not believe this statement.RANDALL HILL/Reuters

The people of Taiwan have become accustomed to China's military flight near Taiwan, and the news of the appearance of balloons is generally calm and even indifferent.

Nevertheless, flying balloons may still be part of China's "gray zone" strategy. The strategy warns Taiwan to warn Taiwan on its own military strength and ability, and it will not lead to naked confrontation.The time to fly balloons is approaching the Taiwan election. This can explain the problem. Ke Yongsen, a researcher at the National Institute of Defense Safety in Taipei, said that the research institute is a think tank funded by the Taiwan Ministry of Defense.Ke Yongsen analyzed the trace model of these balloons recently.

"It has a similar effect of intimidation. It happens to be more sensitive during this period. Our Taiwan is elected on January 13 this year," Ke Yongsen said in an interview.He said that they "may be to reduce (deterrent), and they said that it couldn't move the airplane, ships, and other large weapons and equipment to attack, so it switched to some relatively low degree of low, low -intensity intimidation and low -intensity.Stranger.

Taiwanese voters will select presidents and legislators in the general election, and mainland China will not conceal the DPP to step down.The Democratic Progressive Party opposes Beijing's sovereignty on Taiwan, and adheres to Taiwan's unique identity and national consciousness.The Democratic Progressive Party supported Taiwan's independence decades ago, but now it said that accepting the more blurred status of democratic autonomy.

As of Wednesday, the Democratic Progressive Party's presidential candidate Lai Qingde has been leading in most public opinion surveys.However, Hou Youyi, a Kuomintang candidate, who advocates establishing a closer relationship with China, has only lagged a few percentage points in Lai Qingde in some recent polls. The Kuomintang may become a political party with the most seats in the Legislative Yuan and end the Democratic Progressive Party's majority in the parliament.

At the end of last month, when asked about the initial report of balloons near Taiwan, Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Defense, did not confirm or deny any flight, but claimed that because Taiwan was part of China, any debate about the balloon flying over the middle line of the StraitNo practical significance.He also accused the Democratic Progressive Party of speculation in the so -called "selection of mainland China".

China did not hold any large military exercises a few weeks ago this time.Flying the balloon may be a warning issued by the Chinese. If they do not like the results of the election, they will make a more intense response. Military analyst Ben Lewis, who lives in Washington, said that he has been recording every military activity in Taiwan's surrounding military activities in TaiwanData.

"I think the number of flying over, and even more importantly, still means an upgrade of military activities of the People's Republic of China," Lewis wrote in an email."Not to mention, I still think this is a warning that the response of the People's Republic of China to the Taiwan election may not be predicted."

Lewis said that it is almost certain that the recent balloon over the sky is not the first time that the Chinese balloon has drifted over Taiwan.The Taiwan Ministry of National Defense has regularly reported its military flight around Taiwan in 2020. Its number has increased year by year, and now it also includes drones.

After a Chinese meteorological balloon was found on a small island controlled by Taiwan last year, the Ministry of Defense of Taiwan said that most balloon flew over the Taiwan Strait from December to February of the year, and pointed out that "the prevailing northeast monsoon" has it.Helping the balloon flying.

Taiwan defense expert Ke Yongsen said that he was more worried that the Chinese military might use the high -altitude balloon flying over Taiwan, just like discovering balloons over the United States last year to strengthen data collected with satellites and radar.

"Some investigations and intelligence collection of Taiwan are even more serious," he said."This is something we have been concerned about, it is more troublesome."

Chris Buckley is the chief Chinese journalist of the New York Times, reporting to China and Taiwan in Taipei, focusing on political, social change, and security and military issues.Click to view more information about him.