The University of Tokyo, a scholar of the University of Tokyo, who has studied Taiwan for many years, analyzed by the University of Tokyo, the University of Tokyo.question.
Xiaotahara Xinxing on Thursday (July 13), can the candidate entitled the third forces entitled the third forces in the Toyo Economic Ontar Economy really leap forward?Analyze the article and interpret the calculation of Ke Wenzhe, the candidate of the party's party president in the future presidential election.
Xiaoya Yuanxin said that according to the direction of polls, Ke Wenzhe's support rate was still at the bottom last year, but began to climb in late May of this year.The polls also surpassed the DPP candidate Lai Qingde.
Xiaoyuan Xingxing pointed out that in terms of the overall composition of the election campaign, the anti -DPP votes were divided into two camps, which was relatively beneficial to Lai Qingde.Lai Qingde did win first in most polls, but could not maintain a leading situation all the way.Regarding the trend of Ke Wenzhe's future polls, there are differences in opinions that will rise and fall in the future.
Xiaoshiya Yuanxin said that Ke Wenzhe's core proposition is to end the two years of opposition between the DPP and the Kuomintang, get rid of the blue -green ideological confrontation, and use the experience of the past as a physician to solve the problem pragmatically to solve the problem.Essence
He believes that Ke Wenzhe's popularity has risen, and the background is the ease of tension between the two sides of the strait.If the international situation presents the opposition between China and the United States, it is beneficial to the DPP, which is offered to the pro -American Kuomintang.Ke Wenzhe wants to break the support of the Blue and Green camp barriers to obtain support, which requires a certain degree of relief in both Sino -US relations and cross -strait relations. In the election, the focus will return to Taiwan's internal issues.
Ogasawara Hyunxing analyzed whether Ke Wenzhe's continued popularity depends on the internal situation of the Kuomintang. The biggest variable is Guo Taiming, the founder of Hon Hai Group, who "entered" when the Kuomintang nominated the presidential candidate.However, he also pointed out that Guo Taiming had almost no chance to be elected, but it would make the votes of the anti -Min Party entered the party even more split, so Guo Taiming's election is equivalent to making Lai Qingde easily elected.
For the "blue and white" cooperation between the Kuomintang and the people's party, Ogasawara Xingxin said that some views believe that if two candidates in the wild camp work together, they can win the DPP, but this is not this notThe problem of simply "1+1 = 2".
Xiaoyuan Xingxing pointed out that among the young people who support Ke Wenzhe, many people hate the Kuomintang. Therefore, if they really realize the blue and white, the Kuomintang's votes may be lost.There is also a lesson that the President of the People's Republic of China Song Chuyu in the past with the Kuomintang alliance. "Ke Wenzhe also knows this."
Ogasawara Xingxing analyzed that although Ke Wenzhe's mobilization power is weaker than the Kuomintang, the polls surpass Hou Youyi.), Maybe it will become an important election strategy that affects votes.
Ogasumihara has visited Taiwan many times in recent months to meet with three presidential candidates.When he visited Taiwan at the end of last month, he also met with people from all walks of life such as legislators, scholars, and heads of polls.
After the article of Xiaoyuan Yuanyuan's Xinxin, many Taiwanese media translated and quoted this article.However, Kobayashihara Hyunxing posted on Facebook on Saturday (15th) to criticize the translation of the new head shell of Sanli News Freedom Times on Facebook, and the exaggerated title made him regret.
