The short -term rise in the stock market cannot cover up the long -term problems of the economy.For the Chinese economy, what really needs to solve is the advancement of structural reform and the reconstruction of long -term confidence.Market expectations and confidence management are the core tasks of China's current economic recovery.
The recent strong rebound of China's stock market has attracted widespread attention from global investors.In the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the People's Bank of China issued a series of policies to support housing markets, interest rate cuts, and reduction policies last week, and set up new policy tools to support the stock market.These measures bring the market's policy dividend that exceeds expected, and the subsequent meeting of the Central Political Bureau further consolidated the market's optimism.
The scale and strength of this round of policy stimulus are unprecedented. It not only reflects the determination of the central bank to deal with the downward pressure on the economy, but also marks a major change in macroeconomic policy ideas.Different from the previously released relief policy, this time the measures pay more attention to forming long -term expectations.This stimulating policy portfolio not only pays attention to market emotional stability in the short term, but also conveys the clear trend and firm commitment of future policy to the market.Through the transparency and predictability of the policy, the market's expectations for the future have strengthened the market. The innovation is that through forward -looking guidance and clear policy roadmap, the market has enhanced the market's confidence in the future.
Although the stock market ushered in a strong rebound due to policy introduction, the real challenge is how to transform this short -term market emotion into sustainable economic growth.The short -term rise in the stock market cannot cover up the long -term problems of the economy.For the Chinese economy, what really needs to solve is the advancement of structural reform and the reconstruction of long -term confidence.Market expectations and confidence management are the core tasks of China's current economic recovery, and insufficient confidence is the biggest challenge facing the current Chinese economy.
The current challenge of the Chinese economy is not only cyclical adjustment, but also a multi -dimensional deep -seated structural problem.In the context of global geopolitics uncertainty, the long -term stability of China's economy is increasingly dependent on the market's expectations and confidence in policies.Therefore, in the current market boom, expected management and confidence improvement is a more critical issue.It is expected that management should not only be limited to the field of monetary policy, but also cover wider macro -control, and occupy a more important position in future policy stimulus.
The core ofThe expected management is to continue to establish the confidence of various market entities for future development.Its primary task is to ensure the consistency and continuity of the policy.In recent years, the market has been confused and anxious about the uncertainty and repeated policies.Policies are often adjusted quickly when the short -term economic indicators deteriorate, weakening the market's trust in the long -term coherence of policies.This not only makes it difficult for investors to make reasonable long -term planning, but also affects the company's decisions of innovation and expansion.Therefore, policy formulation should focus on the long run, maintain transparency, and strengthen communication with the market to avoid negative interpretation.
By clarifying the direction of future development and the specific goals to be achieved, it can more effectively guide the expectations and improve the market's clear understanding of policies, reducing suspicion and panic.Policies must be consistent with words and deeds.This puts forward higher requirements for the quality of policies, and must emphasize the forward -looking, leading and coherence of policies.Policies must boost confidence through management expectations so that confidence can achieve growth through behavioral changes. The establishment of confidence must be guaranteed by the policy effect after all.
The most important current is the expectations of managing investors, consumers and government officials.By strengthening the protection of the private economy, investors' confidence is enhanced, and the establishment of a social security system and the establishment of the income regulation mechanism to enhance consumer confidence, and at the same time enhances the confidence of officials by improving the incentive mechanism of civil servants.The continuous advancement of the modern national system can also enhance the confidence of international investors.
The improvement of confidence requires many aspects of policy coordination and linkage, especially to solve the system bottleneck of the long -term restriction of China's economy.First of all, the long -term stability of policy is important.Although short -term policies can stabilize the market to a certain extent, the improvement of long -term confidence depends on institutional reform and the sustainability of policies.Decision makers must pass clear policy signals to the market, indicating that they will continue to promote reform in the future.When the policy lacks coherence, the market is often susceptible to the impact of emergencies, and long -term confidence construction will also weaken.
Secondly, it is imperative to promote structural reform.Although short -term currency and fiscal policies can temporarily stimulate market emotions, those who can truly boost long -term confidence are still in -depth advancement of structural reforms.China still has a lot of room for improvement in supply -side structural reforms, financial market opening, and local government financial reform.Only by deepening these fields can we provide the market with a more stable and expected economic environment, thereby enhancing the long -term confidence of investors, enterprises and consumers.
Once again, stabilize Sino -US relations and reduce external pressure.The fluctuation of Sino -US relations directly affects market expectations and investment decisions. Especially, in the context of the current global trade friction and intensified technological competition, stable Sino -US relations can not only provide a more favorable external environment for the Chinese economy, but also reduce the marketWorry about future uncertainty.
Finally, improve the transparency of the system and strengthen communication with the market.Market confidence depends not only on the content of the policy, but also relying on the communication and implementation of policies.Policy makers must establish effective interaction with the market through transparent communication channels.Repeated policies, excessive supervision, and dislocation of timing will cause uncertainty of market subject behavior, which will cause market confusion, poor expectations, and confidence to decline.Supervisors and market entities are symbiotic relationships, not opposite relationships, and supervision and development must be taken into account.Before the policy is promulgated, it is necessary to consult market opinions and maintain market friendship, so as to further reduce market uncertainty and enhance investor confidence.
The establishment of confidence is not achieved overnight. It must form benign expectations through long -term consistency, transparency and actual results of reform.System construction is a key foundation for ensuring confidence.China's economic growth model has transformed from traditional investment -driven to innovation and consumption -driven, and this transformation requires a sound institutional guarantee.Through the system of rule of law, marketization, and internationalization, the government can provide the market with more transparent, fair and expected environment, and enhance the confidence of various economic subjects.The continuous and in -depth system reform is the key to boosting confidence, which is also the successful experience of China's reform and opening up for decades.
In general, the prosperity of the stock market is a good start, but it is only half of success.It is necessary to take advantage of this favorable momentum to pursue the victory and launch comprehensive and systematic reform measures.More importantly, through effective policy tools and institutional reforms, we will continue to improve market expectations and confidence.The development potential of China's economy is still huge, and the central bank's policy has released underestimated stock market potential.In recent years, China's economic growth has not reached the potential level. Only through a series of structural reforms and the stable implementation of policies can we release the potential of China's economy as it releases the potential of the stock market.Therefore, China's policy space is still huge, further promoting reform and opening up, and managing long -term expectations in order to ensure that China's economy is stable and far away.
The author is the National University of Singapore
Associate Professor of the School of Public Policy, Li Guangyao
