Careful analysis, compared with Koizumi Chunichiro, who was met by Ozawa Ichiro as "no right wing" or Koizumi, who imitated his father's technique.Observation is not complicated and vague at all.The key is to have a beam pill (ship number), which has a soft spot for security. Where should I bring Japan?
After several times and behind the scenes and behind the scenes, the Japanese ruling party's Liberal Democratic Party president election drama finally came to an end.Although the Minister of Economic Security Gao Shi Miao received 181 votes in the first round of voting and led the 154 votes of Shi Po Mao, a leading defense minister, in the second round of voting, Shi was defeated by 215 votes at 215 votes.Shi Po, who was defeated repeatedly in the fifth candidate, became the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and became the new Prime Minister of Japan on October 1.
For the nine people's elections, especially when the Japanese media locked on the eve of the voting, when the three -year -old Minister Koizumi Koizumi, the 43 -year -old Minister of the Environment, was the most powerful candidate. Many friends asked me which one wasThe largest choice opportunity?My answer is that it is like watching horse racing in the racecourse and it is difficult to answer.Of course, gambling is mainly gambling, and it is necessary to guess which of the popular Liberal Democratic Party's president candidate to be carried into the Prime Minister's palace. It also depends on the final fighting and transactions of various valves in the secret room, financial and even elders.From this perspective, in less than the last minute, this party president election without policy and route disputes will not have a clear answer.
However, carefully observing the opening and closing of the President of the Liberal Democratic Party, it is not difficult to find the following clues and characteristics.
The old state of the valve is still
One is because of the involved in the problem of the South Korean unified religion and the black gold scandal. The power faction within the party adopts a relatively low -key attitude.In the pattern of nine people, the Japanese media basically locked the new generation of "Xiao (Koizumi) Shi (Shi Shi) River (Kono Kono, Digital Minister)" and the eagle female politician Gao City San Miao.
The second is that the freshman politicians started with the "alternation of generations", and they scrambled to take over as soon as possible.But on the starting line, they are on the worshipers in the party, seeking the elders' support and help.Koizumi Koijiro was a typical example from the beginning of the prime minister of his father, the former Prime Minister of his father, to plan for him.At the end of his last moment, he personally publicly paid a public Prime Minister Masheng Taro, which fully explained the great influence of the elders in the party.Because of this, when the media came from the media to support Gao Shi Miao, all parties once believed that the "first Japanese female prime minister" was about to be born.However, I did not expect that the current Prime Minister Kishida Wenxiong, who has always been on the surface, was pressed on Shi Po in the last minute, and the situation has changed rapidly.In addition, in the second round of voting, many votes that voted for the third place were transferred to Shi Po to support the votes, and the Shi Po regime was born.
This shows that Shi Po, a new generation of politicians (although he is 67 years old, is not young in the strict sense), although he is advertised as "generation alternate" theory, but behind him still has to rely on Yoshiyoshi, Kishida Wenxiong, etc.Impact support and support.
The third is that Kishida is based on its own retirement and an example, and dissolves the valve to tell voters that the Liberal Democratic Party has the ability to self -purify and innovate.However, from the presidential election process, the original team of the valves, the trading and activities behind the scenes and behind the scenes, especially when he was at the end of the moment, please ask the members of the front bank to support Shi Po.The dissolution is false, and the valve politics or their mechanics is still true.
Perhaps, what the rules that best reflect this game are the only Masaki Old Old Mataro, who has not disbanded the valve.He first announced that Kono Kono's representative Makoto was elected, and then said that the members of the valve could vote freely (disguised recovering the conversation that supported Kono).On the eve of the voting day, it is called to send a valve member to support Gao City Sanmiao when the first round of voting.Kono is considered to be the elder of his family.
As for another political game master, Shi Yiwei, is not lonely.He supported Kono during the election of the last (2021) president. This time, he supported Koizumi. After the first round of Xiaoquan's voting was frustrated, he turned to support Shi Po, trying to maintain his influence on the central power center.
On the reward and "Lift Party System"
It can be seen that the Liberal Democratic Party announced that the "self -purification" and Japanese media rendered this year as the presidential election of "get rid of the political influence of the valve".To be precise, this is a political game for political deformation of valve.
After the "New generation" or "reformist" politician Shi Po Mao wins, how will he arrange for the party's important position, setting up cabinet and promotion of new policies?
According to the Liberal Democratic Party, there are two basic methods.The first is the reward; the other is to establish a "party -raising system" cabinet.The so -called reward on meritorious meritoriousness, looking at the righteousness, is not difficult to understand, that is, the most important or sweet position to retain the powerful people in the party who are beneficial to themselves in the election.The so -called party system is as much as possible, especially the candidates who participated in this campaign and running, and symbolized the unity of the Liberal Democratic Party and abandoned the former suspicion in order to deal with the House of Representatives after the parliament.
When the author wrote this draft, the information from Tokyo intermittently from Tokyo explains the personnel arrangements of the reward type and the party -based system -based personnel arrangement, which has gradually exposed the water.Koizumi Koizo is an example as an election countermeasure. Lin Fang is staying as the Secretary -General of the Cabinet.Coupled with the vice president of the party, and the "highest adviser" of the "highest consultant" who is called as the "highest consultant" who is called as no real power, Shi Po is obviously to appease the parties.
As for the appointment of the Council of Council (Avant to Defense Minister), the Minister of Defense of the New Cabinet, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Avanthess) as the Foreign Minister, it also highlights the new cabinet's emphasis on military issues and security diplomacy.
There is a soft spot for security issues
When talking about Shi Po Mao's internal and external policies, as long as he knows the words and deeds of the former defense minister, and his group interviewed by Taiwan on the eve of his presidential election, Shi Po is regarded as a "fixed opinion" eagle faction.Representatives are well deserved.
His outlook on security includes: 1. It is recommended that the Self -Defense Force upgrade to the "National Defense Forces".2. Proposal to modify the Constitution, especially for Article 9, paragraph 2, it is recommended to cancel the regulations that restrict Japanese fighter capabilities.3. It is believed that the timing of re -examining the US -Japan security treaty has arrived; in order to make this treaty more equal and strengthen the United States and Japan cooperation, it advocates setting up the Japanese Self -Defense Force Base in the United States.Fourth, advocate the establishment of the Asian version of NATO agencies, and believes that "today's Ukraine is perhaps the East Asia tomorrow."
Perhaps it is because of the support of the old Abe and the Masheng School, which is deeply supported by the old Abe and eager to become "the first Japanese female prime minister in history".Some people think that Shipo appears to be relatively stable and rational in relatively, and even draws it as a so -called "complex" politician.However, carefully analyzing, compared with Koizumi Koi Koji, who was "no right wing" by Komosawa, is compared with Koizumi Koizumi who imitates his father's technique.Complex and vague.
Similarly, although Gao Shi Miao has changed from "ignorant girl" (when he first entered politics, he claimed that he had nothing to do with the war issues, and he was shocked by the war.The eagle position may not be comparable to the stone broken of the "policy".The key is to have a beam pill (ship number), which has a single beam to security for security?
The author is Singaporean scholar, Japanese political critic, tutor at the Peking University Journalism Research Association, Honorary Director of the International Communication Research Center of Xiamen University, and honorary professor at the University of Longgu University
