When other parts of the world weigh the influence of Trump or Harris, and when the impact of the US presidential election in November, China is also facing the severe challenges of two candidates.To be sure, they do not seem to want an open conflict between the two major powers, because this may cause the world to fall into a nightmare chaos.However, no matter who finally won, from the perspective of decision makers in mainland China, both countries will have fierce disputes on trade, technology, and Taiwan issues.
China is adopting a plate of chess nationwide to deal with relations with the United States, so as to prepare more turbulence.This means that beyond the category of foreign affairs, coordinate with economic decision makers, military and scientific leaders, and mobilize national resources.This strategy draws on the US curb strategy, because in recent years, the United States has been striving to maintain its technological advantages, obstructing China to enter the global market, and building an alliance in Asia and other regions to respond to "Chinese challenges."China, which is siege, is actively preparing to respond to long -term hostile state with the world's largest economy.
As part of this process, China has begun to change the economic model and no longer pursue growth at all costs. Instead, it is to build a tough economy with innovation as the power and cope with the long -term geopolitical tension.Chinese President Xi Jinping also hopes to adjust the economic structure by accelerating domestic innovation and help reduce excessive dependence on the real estate industry. The third meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Mainland Government held in July this year is for this large -scale reform.Green light was turned on.
Scientific progress and scientific and technological strength are another key strategic goal of Xi Jinping.China attaches great importance to its ability to develop innovation and is determined to occupy the world's leading position in some scientific and technological fields.However, the United States' targeted sanctions on Chinese technology companies and individuals have hindered these efforts and also produced certain expected results.
Trade and investment have always been regarded as the stability of Sino -US relations.However, Chinese leaders attach great importance to this, because with the intensification of business competition, and China ’s transition to high -end and technology -driven economies from low -end and export -oriented growth models, trade and investment are brought by bilateral relations with bilateral relations.The actual income has been greatly reduced.On the contrary, China's rapid progress in electric vehicles and semiconductor manufacturing has exacerbated its trade tensions with the United States.
However, the Taiwan issue is still the most sensitive place in Sino -US relations.Although the official policies of mainland China have not changed, in view of Taiwan's recent selection of a independent government to go to power, Chinese strategists generally believe that the current situation is unstable.This may cause mainland China to strengthen the deterrence of Taiwan's leadership and even the United States.Since the United States is also strengthening deterrent measures against China, all elements that trigger the Taiwan Strait confrontation have been prepared.In order to prevent the worst situation, Xi Jinping should have a regular face -to -face dialogue with the presidential president selected by American voters in November.
China's main goal is to ensure that the further deterioration of Sino -US relations will not hinder economic growth, because economic growth is the basis for the legitimacy of the mainland government.Therefore, Chinese decision makers try to expand the economic and political influence of other worlds, especially the global southern countries, minimize the damage caused by the rupture of Sino -US relations as much as possible.Winning time.
In view of Trump and Harris in the process of voting, the Chinese decision makers will not have fantasized Sino -US relations compared to China, and will not have a miraculous improvement in the near future.But we should not look at the relationship between the two countries excessively.China's policy on the United States has always been the result of balanced consideration -not only considering the current status of international affairs, but also weighing its own needs.Although Xi Jinping has undergone major changes after he came to power, this policy has not changed.
It is gratifying that both sides have recently showed a clear attitude to manage bilateral relations responsible.Although the competition between China and the United States will not disappear overnight, no matter who will enter the White House next year, the conflict between the two largest economies of these two worlds, and the catastrophic consequences that may followof.
(English Original: How China is Preparing for America ’s Next President: Project Syndicate, 2024.)
