It should be noted that, first of all, analyzes the history of the United States election that the possibility of allowing or choosing a woman to be elected president is not optimistic.Secondly, Trump's poll data is easily underestimated. Some of the reasons may be because many of his remarks include racial discrimination and gender discrimination, so many of his supporters tend to do not express their positions.
In 1995, during the first term of the US President Clinton, Luben, a psychologist who studied children's problems, designed a T -shirt to enhance girls' self -esteem.Gelite, wrote a slogan "Someday a woman Will Be President!"
In 2016, Hillary Clinton became the first woman who was nominated by the presidential candidate by major parties in the United States.Unfortunately, she did not win as expected.In July of this year, after the current president Biden announced his abandonment of re -election, his deputy Harris replaced him to run for the Democratic Party.Can Harris become the first female president in the United States, so that "Margaret's prediction" is true?
For a long time, American women cannot get involved in politics.In the political field, the United States pursued the "lady who could not enter" in the early days. When the constitution began to implement, women had no right to vote in many states.
In the 1820s, the first wave of the Women's Movement set off, and was committed to fighting for educational opportunities for women.In 1845, the female school teacher Margaret Fuller published a 19th -century woman's book, emphasizing reducing women's dependence on men, and refuting the society that women are not as popular as men in intelligence and physical strength.Subsequently, winning the right of women's electoral rights became the central goal of the feminist movement.After half a century of hard work, it was not until 1918 that the Federal Senate and the House of Representatives passed the constitutional amendments on the right to vote for women.In 1920, the bill, known as the "Amendment of Article 19", officially took effect by the approval of 36 states."It is not possible to cancel or deprive the voting of citizens because of gender relationships". This line of voting is the foundation and rights foundation for American women to participate in various election activities.
In 2003, political scholars and Gordon compiled the countdown: Anticipating Madam President, enthusiastically looking forward to the arrival of the female president.However, Hillary was officially nominated until July 28, 2016.But until now, the US President's throne is still only male.
Why are women a US president?
A considerable number of women in the world successfully reached the top of the president.For example, Isabel Bearon served as the President of Argentina from 1974 to 1976. Mary Robinson served as the President of Irish from 1990 to 1997, and Lidia Galler served as President of Bolivia from 1979 to 1980.On August 14 this year, the Federal Election Court of Mexico confirmed the results of the Presidential election in June. Claudia Singbham was officially elected as the first female president in Mexico.As a pioneer of democracy, why hasn't female president so far?
One of them, from an institutional perspective, women's positions have obtained the position of president than the position of the prime minister under the parliament system.Sort out women who have served as the position of national leaders, of which more prime ministers are.The reason may be related to the parliamentary system and the presidential system operating model. In the state of parliament, if women want to control their power, they only need to become a leader of the parliament party in the election, and they can almost sit in the seat of the Prime Minister or Prime Minister.Under the presidential system, after the nomination of female candidates, after being nominated by their party, they often have to go through a national election activity and win to have the opportunity to be elected president.
Second, from the perspective of the mechanism of selecting candidates by political parties, presidential candidates are often selected for "identity value".Generally speaking, candidates for the United States Democratic Party have multiple identity labels to attract more ethnic ethnic votes, such as the help of colorful race with Obama's skin color.For female candidates, political parties are the uniqueness of gender.However, female candidates often cannot win the support of male voters, nor is it difficult to integrate the preferences of female groups. Therefore, it is not a wise move to simply attract voters with gender.Therefore, when a label is more and more representative of candidates, political parties often make other choices.
Third, from the topic of different gender concerns, men in American voters often care more about business, war and other issues; women pay more attention to social welfare, education, medical care and other fields.Of course, with the education level and political awareness of female voters, they also pay more attention to some issues other than social policies. These issues traditionally belong to male patents.
Fourth, American politics is inherently strong in men.At the beginning of the system design, politics was a male game, and women were excluded.After fighting for the right to vote, women have the opportunity to enter politics, but in many cases, they are attached to men.The first female governor Neili Taylo Rose, and the first female senator Heidi Carraville, was appointed to take over the position because her husband died in office.From his political career to the nomination of candidates, Hillary is largely related to the halo of "former first lady".At the same time, in US politics, women are often in the status of male power and often appear in deputy positions.In addition, the media's attention to women is often not governing ability, but to cater to the preferences of the social market and "bin the vulgarization" of female politicians.
Will it be Kamara Harris?
Since Biden abandoned the election, Harris has changed the "typical vice president" style and has been confidently and generously moved towards the center of the political stage to seek the top spot in the highest political arena.As another female presidential candidate nominated by Hillary, Harris obviously faced the same difficulties.She is going to face national campaign. It is proven to prove that for the Democratic Party, she is sufficiently representative. She must analyze voters' preferences, propose more supportive policy solutions, and also avoid the negative of the patriarchal social structure as much as possible as much as possible.Influence.
Of course, the Democratic Party also faces some inevitable crises.There is a dispute between values within the Democratic Party, reflecting the division and polarization of American society.For a long time, white people have been major ethnic groups, but with the growth of immigrants, the population of ethnic minorities, the white ratio has declined, and the social influence has also been affected.Profile more conservative Republican Party.During the campaign, the more and more claims of the Democratic Party were proposed for ethnic minorities.Based on issues such as immigration, abortion, gun control, gender, etc., voters have become classic tug -of -war of the two major political parties.Gender is not particularly important. Whether it can play a role can be used to choose from, I am afraid it depends on whether Harris's attitude on other issues can attract voters.
According to the latest polls, Harris's support rate is significantly higher than Trump, and the two are also taking different plans to win more support.It should be noted that, first of all, the possibility of analyzing the history of the United States election found that allowing or choosing a woman to be elected president is not optimistic.Secondly, in 2016, before Hillary and Trump officially faced each other, some poll data had deviations.The model of Nate Silver, which is more conservative for Hillary's selection probability prediction, believes that Hillary's probability of winning is 71.4%.In other words, Trump's poll data is easily underestimated. Some of the reasons may be that there are many contents of racial discrimination and gender discrimination in his remarks, so many of his supporters tend to do not express their positions.
Harris may not be elected because of women's identity, but because her election has proven the power of women.In short, in the last time, she must attract the attention of voters and win enough support.Only to get the opportunity to win the White House.
(Author Yun Xinliang is a graduate student of the School of Political and Administration of Tianjin Normal University, Zhang Jianwei is an associate professor at the Department of Political Science and Administration of the Central and South University of Ethnology)
