Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
On April 4th, under the magnesium light of the global media, Donald Trump, who was prosecuted in the crime of being trapped, accepted a message in the court in Manhattan, New York.For Trump, which has continued to break the history of the President of the United States since the campaign, this newsletter is a bit "thunderous and heavy" in the public relations: without Trump's photos of walking on handcuffs; no suspects "The big head photo "for the future candidate for the future; there is no video broadcast of Trump in front of the judge; the short images of Trump entering and leaving the court are not dramatic, only a serious face Trump and he waved back; evenThere are no serious conflicts on the supporters on the streets of New York.
After receiving the news, Trump quickly returned from his hometown to New York to the new home in Florida to hold an important speech that he preached in advance.However, Trump's speech did not have any place beyond expectations. He continued to play the role of "victim". The criticism of the case was for his "witch hunting operation" for his 2024 presidential election.Alvin Bragg and Juan Manuel Merchaan, a judge in charge of the trial of the case, scolded it as usual.
However, although Trump's performance is a bit "old -fashioned" this time, people cannot underestimate the impact of this situation with the "Trump lawsuit" on the 2024 election.
Simple "fraud" case
Manhattan prosecutors charged Trump's 34 "commercial archives fraud" this time, and each charges for up to four years can be as high as four years.Although in the factual statement of joining the case with the prosecution, the prosecution listed the two Trump scandals to hidden incidents in the United States.Former lawyer Michael Cohen (formerly known as Stephanie Clifford) paid the "tuition fee" to the adult movie star Stormy Daniels.
The case of the case is very simple.After the selection of competition in 2016, in order to prevent Daniels from disclosing its story with Trump's extramarital sex in the past, Cohen "under Trump's instructions" paid the former $ 130,000 (new 170,000 new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new new (170,000 new new (170,000 new new new)Yuan) "Pukou fee".After Trump won the election, he repaid the money from Cohen in installments, but listed the money as "legal expenditure", which constituted the charges of "fraudulent commercial archives" (the checks involved, CohenThe documents and Trump's account records constitute 34 fakes, respectively).
However, the legal logic behind the crime is not simple. Not only does it not have the support of similar jurisprudence in the past.Political action.
Legal logic loopholes everywhere
"Commercial Archives fraud" is just a light crime in New York. In order to become a felony, prosecutor Prague further proves that Trump's fraud is to assist in or hide another criminal crime.The problem is that although Prague has proposed to Trump's felony prosecution to Trump at this moment, it has not clearly explained what this criminal crime is; more seriously, people from Prague's hints and cases are scrutinized by the cases.Possible suicide is not very able to stand in law.
The key to interpreting the case is that Trump pays Daniels' "揞 <" in fact as "election expenditure", because preventing Daniels from "sexual encounters" will help Trump's election situation.EssenceThis interpretation may violate New York State or Federal election laws literally.Federal election law prohibits enterprises from donating directly to candidate campaign, while state laws are prohibited from promoting a candidate with illegal means.These may constitute Trump's "second sin".
However, first of all, whether this "tuition fee" should be regarded as "election expenditure" itself can be questioned -Trump can say that this is that he does not want his wife to be "extramarital sexThe rumor's influence decided to block Daniels, so this would only be "private expenditure" rather than "election expenditure."
Secondly, even if the "tuition fee" is "election expenditure", the case of prosecutor Prague is flawed.If Trump's "second crime" violates the state election law, Prague will explain why the state election legal management has obtained federal presidential elections (because federal law usually override the state law); if Trump's "second sect"Sin" is the Federal Election Law of the State, this method of "adding materials" for the crime of "fraud" for "business records" is unprecedented.Basic cases.
In addition, Prague also mentioned the possibility of Trump's intention to violate the state tax law.When Trump repaid the expenditure of "Castle Tolls", it included Cohen's taxes that Kane used the amount as an additional payment for personal income.The problem is that this is obviously not led to reduced taxes in New York State.
Prosecutors' legal logic is so loopholes, unprecedented and vague. Even though some Democratic Party supporters still hold up the banner of "laws without exception", many legal scholars and analysts believe that this "oral fee fee"The case is not used to pull down Trump's best case; from the perspective of political strategy, this case, as Trump's first criminal prosecution, is more likely to help Trump's election.
The Democratic Party's "political persecution" changes to "assistance"?
First of all, to sue Trump with a fake case of a six or seven -year archives. The case is mild, and people will inevitably think that this is a Democratic Party prosecutor Prague's political persecution against Trump.The Democratic Senator Joe Manchin has expressed such concerns, and Bill Cassidy, a Republican senator who has voted to support Trump, also criticized the case as a "political theater."Republicans almost criticized Democrats to prosecute Trump regardless of unanimous factions, and Congress is more likely to conduct anti -investigations on Prague.
This political atmosphere makes it very difficult for Republicans who intend to challenge Trump in 2024.The trial of the case will be delayed until the election campaign in 2024. When Trump is unanimously recognized by the Republicans as "the Republican leader who has been persecuted by the Democratic Party", Trump's potential opponents are more difficult to deal withTrump launched another front attack.
Trump's team has long used the "Passage Fee" case to ask other potential opponents to support Trump.Today, Ron Desantis, the most important party of Trump, and Florida governor, had to stand in line after a while, criticizing Prague's prosecution for political considerations.
Of course, De Santis also cleverly left a "counterattack road" for himself, and at the same time "pumped the water" to Trump, saying that he could not evaluate the case because "I don’t know to pay a pornographic star."What is involved in the tolls", it is even more supplemented that "I have practical things in Florida to deal with it." It seems that I want to support Trump on one side, but on the other hand, it is not as low moral as Trump.
This strategy does not seem to work for the time being.After Trump's prosecution news was exposed, Trump clearly opened the gap with De Santis in the Republican President's preliminary poll.The latter is only 44 years old. If you see the right color, you may even give up the election. When you fight again, the Republican Presidential candidate will be made with Trump in disguise.
Moreover, whether the case of "Passage Fee" is ultimately sentenced to Trump's guilt or innocence, it will constitute a political points for Trump.If Trump is convicted, the "former president is imprisoned by the enemy party targeting the dribble" will become a campaign.The crime is prison itself in US laws that do not stop Trump from running for president.If Trump is convicted, "the enemy party has failed, and the US justice is also innocent" will become another propaganda, which is also beneficial to the president of Trump.
What's more serious is that the "Pukou fee" case may form a universal impression that "Democratic Party uses judicially to combat Trump" in the hearts of the people, making Trump in the future.The prosecution that has a substantial basis has lost its due political influence, and even formed a political situation that "more control is more favorable to Trump".
At present, Georgia Procuratorate has an end to Trump's tried to overthrow the results of 2020 voting results. It is likely that in the short term, it will announce whether the meeting will sue Trump.Trump's private documents and cases related to the riots of Congress in 2020.Compared with these crimes related to "overthrowing American democracy", today's "Pukou fee" case can be regarded as the noise.
At present, although Joe Biden, who is refreshing every day, has not yet announced the re -election, its election seems to be recognized.If a "two old confrontation" of Biden's pair of Bayeng's pair in 2024, it shows that the Republican Party has been unable to get rid of Trump's control in eight years, and even let Trump's victory over the old Long Zhong's Biden, the Democratic Party's internal insideThe blindness of people will be responsible for the blindness of the Trump rope to the law.
