Qi Dongtao: Xia Liyan and Ma Ying -jeou visited Lu and the Kuomintangs 2024 Road

Qi Dongtao

The news of former Taiwan President Ma Ying -jeou's news at the end of March to worship the ancestors in mainland China caused heated discussion on both sides of the strait.His time to visit the land is just over time with Taiwan's Tsai Ing -wen's visit to the United States. In addition, this year is the "election year" for Taiwan to welcome the 2024 Presidential legislature election.The signal of "welcome to communicate" is constantly released in Taiwan, all of which make people ease the relationship between cross -strait relations, especially for the Kuomintang's 2024 election road.

In fact, the signal of strengthening the exchange with the Kuomintang in the mainland has appeared for the second time after the visit to land after more than five months in early February.Not only was he received from Wang Huning, a member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Mainland Government, the People's Daily also reported it.This was very different from that he was only involved in the deputy director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Taiwan Affairs Office last time.In just five months, the political situation in the mainland and Taiwan has undergone major changes. The different treatments obtained twice before and after Xia Liyan reflect the impact of these changes on cross -strait interaction.Ma Ying -jeou also visited Lu to observe this background.

The biggest change in Taiwan's politics is that the Kuomintang has achieved bright results in local elections. After the election, the momentum is greatly vibrated. The support of public opinion has changed from the Democratic Progressive Party to the flames.EssenceThe mainland has also successfully held the 20th National Congress of the Mainland Government. The new leaders have taken office. Wang Huning publicly dominates the new Taiwan policy in Beijing.

On the other hand, Beijing has interpreted the victory of the Kuomintang in local elections as the failure of the Democratic Progressive Party ’s“ anti -Chinese -China ’s Taiwan” policy. It believes that Taiwan ’s public opinion began to wake up.At that time, Taiwanese voters abandoned the Democratic Progressive Party of radical Taiwan independence and instead supported the Kuomintang who supported the continuous improvement of the relationship with the mainland.Therefore, if Beijing can help the Kuomintang's 2007 situation in 2007, the Kuomintang in 2024 may have won as in 2008.

Ma Ying -jeou who led the Kuomintang to win the 2008 election, and the improvement of the Kuomintang relations with Beijing's relations was the journey to Lu Bing and peace in April 2005.Although Ma Ying -jeou's visit to Lu to avoid meeting with Beijing's senior management, it is still showing to Taiwan's voters that the Kuomintang is capable of maintaining cross -strait peace in 2005, as Lien Chan visits to Lu in 2005.

Finally, the Taiwan policy announced by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China still takes peace and reunification as the first choice. Cross -strait exchanges and integration development are still the most important policy tools for realizing peace and unity.The new leaders of the mainland government need to overcome the challenges of the United States on the mainland on the Taiwan issue. On the one hand, it is necessary to use more tough means to counter provocation; on the other hand, it is necessary to create opportunitiesUnity, promote the process of peace and unity.The new government leader who just took office in the "two sessions" once again emphasized this again.All these factors have contributed to the Kuomintang's high -level visits to land.

The Kuomintang, which are "internal fighting and inside, fighting layman" from all walks of life in the mainland, are full of disappointment, and even criticize the Kuomintang on the surface with the "1992 consensus" and "anti -Taiwan independence" from the mainland. In fact, in TaiwanIt is internationally engaged in "Hua Du", which is the disguised Taiwan independence, or it has been stubbornly resisting unity.

But the two harms are light, and the Kuomintang is still the target of Beijing and can be united, because in the context of Sino -US confrontation, the Kuomintang, which accepts the "1992 Consensus", is the only capable of being able to have Beijing.Cooperation and significant improvement of cross -strait relations.

Can the Kuomintang win in 2024?Since the Democratic Progressive Party came to power in 2000, the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang have stepped down in two. Will this law be reproduced in 2024?Now the situation of Taiwan's politics is indeed a bit like 2007. Will the DPP be stepped down like 2008?

Now the tension on both sides of the strait is similar to 2007. Most of the voters in Taiwan also want to improve cross -strait relations, not only to avoid military conflicts, but also for mutual benefit.However, there are many different situations in the current situation, so that the DPP will not repeat itself easily in 2008.

At that time, the Taiwan society was dissatisfied with Chen Shui -bian and the DPP. The tension of cross -strait relations was only a superficial reason. The deeper reason was that Chen Shui -bian was escaped from various corruption scandals to consolidate Taiwan independence to consolidate himself in deep green in the deep green.As a result, the status not only caused cross -strait relations, but also tore the Taiwan society, which led to conflicts and blue -green conflicts in Taiwan's internal ethnic groups, which intensified to a terrible level.Most voters thought about it, and in 2008, they chose the Kuomintang who was good at stable.

But Tsai Ing -wen and the DPP have not affected huge corruption scandals, and conflicts within Taiwan society are not fierce.Tsai Ing -wen has always followed the image of the United States to curb the mainland with a low -key, and Taiwan society has not felt that she is engaged in radical Taiwan independence.For most voters in Taiwan, the root cause of the tension between cross -strait relations lies in the confrontation between China and the United States. The DPP government is just a follower who is sandwiched in the middle and prefers to the United States.Essence

The more important difference between 2007 is the role of the United States.At that time, because of the initiative to support the Bush administration's international counter -terrorism strategy after September 11, China turned the extremely pro -platform Bush's steering, and began to control Chen Shuibian with China, and repeatedly opposed him to engage in radical Taiwan independence.Chen Shui -bian not only became a source of chaos on the island, but also became a "troublemaker" internationally. Therefore, the DPP was not only abandoned by Taiwanese voters in 2008, but also abandoned by the United States.Trust.

Now the role of the United States is just the opposite. It is a high degree of trust and supporting the DPP. It continues to challenge China's bottom line on the Taiwan issue. It is definitely looking forward to the DPP in 2024 to continue to curb China with themselves.Most of the voters in Taiwan are also known to this.The United States 'support for the DPP is likely to affect many voters' choices in 2024.

The victory of the Kuomintang in the local election indicates that they will also win the election in the 2024 election?The Kuomintang also won in the local elections in 2018, and has produced a new star leader in South Korea. The momentum of the Kuomintang after the election is even stronger than the present, but in the 2020 election, the DPP is still lost.In the final analysis, the issues that voters pay attention to local elections and central elections are different, so even if the Kuomintang has an advantage in local issues, it may not be the case in the central issue.

Unless the ruling party has obvious big problems in the internal affairs, it has caused a wide range of social objections and resistance before the election, such as Chen Shui -bian's "Red Shirt Army" in the second time.The "Sun Flower" anti -service trade (opposed to the Cross -Strait Service Trade Agreement), otherwise the ruling party still has a governing advantage over the opposition party in the election.

In terms of central issues, such as economic development, government reform, social welfare, environmental protection, human rights progress, policy claims are increasingly the same and gradually lose their differences, resulting in voters cannot vote based on these issues.The only thing that is highly different and has a high degree of mobilization is still the issue of cross -strait.This is the helpless reality in the Taiwan election.At present, the Kuomintang still does not have an advantage in cross -strait issues. Compared with the previous, it is only slightly improved, and it cannot guarantee that it can be selected in 2024.

The US factors also greatly affect the Taiwan 2024 election.Not only because the United States prefer the DPP, it will drive Taiwanese voters to support the DPP more. More importantly, the United States can launch a series of operations through a seriesIt helped Tsai Ing -wen to reverse the unfavorable situation by mobilizing the social anti -Chinese emotions, and was able to win in 2020.

Although the US Speaker McCarthy has temporarily abandoned the visit to Taiwan and met in the United States with Cai Yingwen, he may still visit Taiwan shortly before the election, in order to cause the mainland to counter large -scale military exercises.Use to mobilize the social anti -Chinese emotions, thereby in 2024By profit again.Therefore, even if you do not consider the lack of unity within the Kuomintang and the huge negative impact on themselves, the Kuomintang's road in 2024 is not so good.

Recent polls show that the Kuomintang's support is declining and returned to the situation behind the Democratic Progressive Party a few years ago, which is definitely a warning for the Kuomintang.Perhaps Ma Ying -jeou's visit to Lu's trip can help the Kuomintang find some support in Taiwan.

Taiwan voters will decide which political party in Taiwan will be determined next year, which can greatly affect the four -year interactive strategy of the three parties in China and the United States and Taiwan. It also indirectly affects the confrontation strategies of China and the United States in Asia -Pacific and even the world.It can be said that the votes in their hands will have global influence. Not only the DPP and the Kuomintang will fight for it, but Beijing and Washington are also trying to influence. Other neighboring countries, such as Japan, will also pay great attention.I wonder if Taiwanese voters have realized the power of votes in their hands?

The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore

Taiwan voters will decide which political party in Taiwan will be determined next year, which can greatly affect the four -year interactive strategy of the three parties in China and the United States and Taiwan. It also indirectly affects the confrontation strategies of China and the United States in Asia -Pacific and even the world.It can be said that the votes in their hands will have global influence.