Li cute
The last financial crisis in the United States was in 2008.15 years.For a long time, people gradually forgot about the crisis at the time.The stable days can easily make people see everything existing for granted.However, in just one week this month, the three American banks suddenly closed down one after another, making investors suddenly awaken.People can't help asking: Is our money safe?
Silicon Valley Bank, SIGNATURE Bank and Silvergate Bank closed down, investors are indeed scared.In the first 15 days of this month, the market value of the US banking industry has evaporated by 17%to $ 229 billion (about S $ 300 billion).US Treasury yields also plummeted.Bank stocks in Europe, Japan and Asia are not spared.
Although all the large U.S. banks passed the capital requirements and annual pressure testing of the regulatory authorities last year, Moody's Moody's Moodyan, on March 13, still decided to make the entire United States the entire United States because of "new concerns is surfaced".The rating of the banking system is lowered from the original "stability" to "negative".
It didn't take long, the first and the FIRST Republic Bank also broke out of the crisis.On March 15th, under the leadership of the US government, 11 large banks in the United States jointly injected 30 billion US dollars to help the first and banks overdue.
The bank crisis has also spread to the United States.Credit Switzerland, which had already been problematic, fell 24 % after the stock price fell 24 % on March 15. On March 16, it finally reached out to the Swiss central bank for 50 billion Swiss francs (about 72.2 billion yuan) to keep the bank's funds.fluidity.According to the latest news, Credit Swiss even faces the fate of being acquired.
15 years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, is the banking industry fragile today?
The financial crisis 15 years ago was the result of reckless lending and real estate bubbles.After that crisis, the US regulatory official encouraged banks to buy government bonds in order to ensure that the assets held by banks were reliable.After all, the reputation of the US government can be said to be as stable as Taishan. Even if the crisis appears, US Treasury bonds still have a certain value.
In the past few years, the market interest rate is very low.The market hot money also pushed the price of many assets.Especially during the epidemic, governments of various countries have invested a lot of money to alleviate the sudden crisis.Hot money is full of markets, and deposits have poured into banks.Taking Silicon Valley Bank as an example, in 2020 and 2021, its new deposits have nearly $ 130 billion, and most of them cannot be loaned out at all.
At that time, the market interest rate was close to zero, and many banks chose the simplest way to buy a large number of government bonds and bonds.Because these deposits are almost cost -effective, even if the US government's long -term bonds only pay a little interest, it is still beneficial.
should pay attention to "unrealized loss"
However, when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest speed in 40 years, the newly issued bonds began to pay higher interest rates to investors, which enabled the attractiveness and market value of old bonds with lower interest rates to continuedecline.Even if many banks are preparing to keep bonds in the end, they still have to suffer huge book losses.This malignant cycle has made many banks' unrealistic loss, which is rolling like snowballs.
Not only that, banks usually purchase bonds with deposits.If the bank wants to hold the bond directly, its overall deposit must be matched with the amount of bonds.However, as interest rates rise, banks have to increase the interest of deposit in order to continue their deposits.In other words, their capital costs have also risen.The original Treasury bonds, which were originally favorable, squeezed out of this left and right, and the profits were squeezed.This situation is even more obvious to small and medium -sized banks.
Is the loss of unrealistic loss on the book unrelated?Although many banks do not need to reflect the market value of various types of assets on the balance sheet, as long as they sell bonds, these book losses will become actual losses.This is the case of Silicon Valley Bank.
In addition, when the bank's depositors gradually evacuate for various reasons, banks will force banks to make up for deposit outflows by selling assets.Just like Silicon Valley Bank, because this time it belongs to the first public offering (IPO) and private equity financing "winter", it faces many Silicon Valley startups deposit households and has withdrawn the previous deposits.In the past year, the net change in the deposit of Silicon Valley Bank has changed from positive.The sale of assets to make up for the deposit outflow, the bank's loss is not only on the book.
Silicon Valley Bank is not an isolated example.According to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), as of the end of 2022, the U.S. Bank's unrealized losses, that is, assets that the market price has declined but the banks have not yet sold, reached as high as 620 billion US dollars.
Martin Gruenberg, chairman of the Federal deposit insurance company, said: "The current interest rate environment has a huge impact on the profitability of bank financing and investment strategies, and the risk status.Weaken the ability of the bank to meet the capital liquidity that suddenly needs. "
In other words, these banks will find that when they suddenly need cash, there are fewer cash at hand than expected, because the market value of securities held is lower than the book value.Just like Silicon Valley Bank, even if you sell $ 21 billion in bonds and other projects, it will have to suffer $ 1.8 billion in losses.
In order to avoid the expansion of the chaos, the Federal Reserve announced on March 12 that a new loan plan provided by the Ministry of Finance provided funds was allowed to allow banks and other loan institutionsFor cash, the loan period is one year.
For some long -term bonds, the amount of face value may be more than 50%higher than the market value.The Federal Reserve is so generous that the "unrealized loss" problem of bank bonds is temporarily relieved.This also means that the depositors of the bank have no need to squeeze for the time being.
However, this loan is only one year.Regulatory agencies must make full use of the next time to make the entire bank system safer.Each regulatory agency must now acknowledge that rising interest rates indeed bring certain risks to the banking industry.During the crisis, a bank with unrealized losses had greater risk of closing than banks without such losses.This difference must be reflected in the bank's balance sheet.
should be guaranteed to ensure the security of deposit deposit
Regulatory agencies should consider this when measuring bank security standards, and use this standard to determine whether the bank has sufficient capital, or to increase capital to make appropriate buffer preparations.No banks like to increase capital buffer, or face more rules and restrictions.But ensuring the safety of deposit deposits is the most basic condition for the entire banking system.
The bank fails, even if it is a small bank, you can't wait to look at it.Because banks are involved in the money business, it is complicated and involved.The closure incident from Silicon Valley to other banks this time did wake up a alarm.How to deal with bank failure in Europe and the United States is directly related to people's confidence in the banking system.In other countries where banks have closed down, especially in various regional financial centers, they should also review their own domestic banks to ensure that there are no problems.This is a responsible approach, and it is also an indispensable part of soothe people.
The author is a senior manuscript at Lianhe Zaobao
How to deal with bank failure in Europe and the United States is directly related to people's confidence in the banking system.Other countries where banks have closed down at this stage, especially in various regional financial centers, should also review their own domestic banksGold situation, make sure there is no problem.This is a responsible approach, and it is also an indispensable part of soothe people.
