Li Jiangsheng
Consumption, exports, and investment are the three driving carriages that drive the economy and make varying degrees of contribution to China's economic growth.In 2021, the contribution of consumption, investment and exports was 65.4%, 20.9%, and 13.7%, respectively.
In terms of exports, as the global economic recession trend becomes more and more obvious, the export trend will further weaken.According to the latest import and export trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and the General Administration of Customs, the retail sales of social goods in October 2022 decreased by 0.5%year -on -year, and the export of goods for US dollar pricing decreased by 0.3%.The total value of China's import and export in November was 3.7 trillion yuan (RMB, about 720 billion yuan, the same below), a slightly increased by 0.1%year -on -year, and the growth rate slowed significantly compared with 6.9%in October, a new low since May 2022.
In terms of investment, in the post -epidemic era, the growth rate of real estate investment falls under the dual restrictions of policy regulation and weakened demand.Infrastructure investment is also limited by local governments' high debt.Relying on strong manufacturing investment alone, it cannot support general fixed asset investment, and the driving force for economic growth in the short term is insufficient.In addition, government -led investment has not led to the recovery of private social investment, the trend of weakening domestic demand and the low desire of consumption have not been reversed.To some extent, private social investment can be said to be a vane, which has a great role in domestic demand.
Consumption, especially the final consumption, becomes a long -lasting driving force for economic growth. It can be said that promoting consumption will become the only driving force for China's healthy growth cycle.Recently, the Central Committee of the Mainland Government and the State Council issued the outline of the strategic planning of domestic demand (2022-2035), which requires all regions and departments to carefully implement them according to the actual situation.Combining the Outline of the Central Committee of the Mainland Government and the State Council, expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption will become a medium- and long -term strategy for China's economic development in the next 10 years.The implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand and the cultivation of the overall domestic demand system. It is essential for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic market as its main body and the mutual promotion of domestic and international markets, and it is conducive to promoting the long -term development and lasting stability of the country.
The first is to gradually guide and promote consumption.At the end of 2022, after the prevention and control of the epidemic in various provinces in China, the number of infected people rose sharply, which brought impact on production and circulation. The rise in structural prices had a great impact on some people. In additionIn the state of downside, people are cautious about "dare to consume".Therefore, when encouraging and guiding consumption, you cannot do large and complete, but should be guided from daily consumption. In particular, pay attention to the daily consumption of people in remote areas, especially people in poverty alleviation.It's too fast. In other words, it is not realistic to let people consume cars just solve the problem of food and clothing.For example, government, enterprise and institutions, etc. can issue daily necessities, shopping vouchers, dining coupons, etc., from commonly used consumption, consumption must be guided, and slowly introduce high -quality and diversified consumption such as tourism and cars.
The second is to find new economic growth points.The core issue of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption is to make people's pockets bulging and have the confidence of "dare to consume". Therefore, the main task of the government is to solve the problem of "dare to consume", find new economic growth points, and let people have it.More sources of income.
At present, the century's epidemic is overlapping with the global economy, and people's desire for consumption generally declines, causing insufficient confidence in corporate investment, especially private social investment with vane has significantly shown a trend of atrophy.The government should work hard to encourage private social investment to allow more private social investment to regain investment confidence, thereby expanding domestic demand and driving a new round of consumption.
Third, focus on the development of new consumption to open new domestic valves.Entering the new stage of development, the environmental conditions of China's economic growth have changed, and the establishment of a new development pattern to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern is to grasp China's future development initiative and first chess.
Expanding domestic demand is an effective way to balance external impact and stabilize economic operation. The key is to enhance consumption's leading role in domestic demand and the traction of investment.Mutual promotion.The new type of consumption is the most prominent feature of digital and greening. It meets the needs of China's balanced external impact and stable economy, which will become an important source of consumer growth and innovation development driving force for China.
New consumption is not a single consumption model or format, but a collective name of the new consumption form.Although the new consumption has not been developing a mature consumption form. With the accelerated development of digital technology and green technology, more new consumption formats and consumption models may occur in the future.A consumer revolution in the new era will reshape people's daily life.
The author is a researcher at Hong Kong International Issues
