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The weak consumer electronics market is the most important factor for the chip industry to enter the downward cycle.With the disappearance of special needs during the epidemic period, global smartphones, personal computers, and home appliance shipments in the first three quarters of 2022 have declined in the third quarter.However, in recent years, emerging industries such as 5G, autonomous driving, data centers, artificial intelligence, Yuan universe, and wearable devices will all form a strong future for the future of semiconductor demand.
For the next trend of global chips (also known as chips) that have been struggling for nearly a year in the market environment, the famous information technology research and consulting company Gartner predicts that the global chip industry revenue will decrease by about 2.5%in 2023;The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association (WSTS) is even more pessimistic, pointing out that the global chip market size in 2023 will shrink by 4.1%to $ 557 billion.The market downturn will inevitably be mapped to enterprise investment management. The International Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI) believes that the global chip industry capital expenditure in 2023 was only US $ 138.1 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 26%.
In the first two years of the spread of crown disease, home office stimulated the huge demand of consumer electronics such as mobile phones, computers, and televisions, thereby driving the increase in chip shipments soaring, and the driving and pushing it for multiple forces such as supply should be pushed.Below, the global chip industry has entered an abnormal high -speed growth track. In that year, the compound annual growth rate was as high as 26.2%, and the output value was 555.9 billion US dollars; and this kind of promotion has been maintained until the first quarter of 2022, and at the same time for eight consecutive quarters of positive returns.Created the longest growth record of the global chip industry in history.
The inflection point appeared in the second quarter of 2022.According to data released by the market research company OMDIA, the revenue of the global chip market for the season was $ 158.1 billion, a decrease of 1.9%month -on -month, and then the revenue converged in the third quarter to $ 147 billion, a decrease of 7%month -on -month.In this regard, the report from the US Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) emphasized that the decline in revenue for six months has become the longest slowdown in the growth rate of global chip sales since 2018.Although the data in the fourth quarter of 2022 has not been announced, in terms of comprehensive aspects, the situation is estimated to be optimistic.The latest prediction of WSTS is that the growth rate of the global chip market in 2022 slowed to 4.4%to $ 580 billion.
There is no egg under the nest.The rapid switching of the industry from prosperity to decline made all chip companies feel chills and pain.According to the latest financial report that has been released, in the third quarter of 2022, Samsung Electronics' profits fell by 31.39%, Intel's net profit decreased sharply, Nvidia's net profit decreased by 72%, AMD's net profit plummeted 93%.A decrease of 60%, and the net profit of Meiguang fell by 45%.Under the pressure of the sharp contraction of financial accounts, Samsung, LG, TSMC and other chip heads have stepped on the brakes. Many companies are either passively compressed the annual capital expenditure plan or helplessly "cutting orders", or salary reduction and reducing the amount of prizes.
Driven by the strong chip demand in the past three years, the expected value of equipment investment has been raised many times. In the past year, TSMC has twice reduced the expected value of the device investment from the initial 40 billion US dollars to 440 440The US dollar decreased to $ 36 billion, a total of 20%.Coincidentally, SK Hynix cut off half of the equipment investment in 2023. At the same time, Micron Technology, the largest chip manufacturer in the United States, reduced its capital expenditure in 2023 to 7 billion to 7.5 billion US dollars. Among them, chip manufacturing equipment expenditure was cut by half.
TheThe chip market has obvious periodicity, and the global chip market enters the adjustment period in 2022 is also reasonable.There are many reasons for this result. The first should be attributed to the sharp and sharp convergence of global monetary policy, as well as high inflation and global stock market decline.Both enterprises and individuals are directly damaged and suppressed by demand, and ultimately it will inevitably suppress the supply of chip products in the end.
In fact, based on the vigorous demand for two years, the chip manufacturing industry still opens sufficient horsepower to increase supply and expand its capacity; while on the demand side, based on short -term panic and pressure, customers have continued to repeat the past year in the past yearAnd the behavior of over -placing an order.The feedback on the supply side will inevitably stimulate manufacturers not only fully meet the requirements for order, but also actively carry out collective operations that fill the inventory.However, when the inflection point and contraction occurred, the consequences of the misunderstanding of the actual demand of the consumer market, the backlog of inventory has become a pain in the industry.
Supply and demand determines the price.Inventory accumulation will objectively impact the price of the chip, and in order to clear the inventory, chip manufacturers are forced to reduce the price.However, this not only caused the industry's vicious competition and the rapid decline in revenue, but more importantly, under the premise of weak demand, it was difficult to achieve the effect of promoting consumption and destocking even if the price reduction was reduced.At the same time, the universal price decline invisibly strengthen the purchase options of the downstream and terminal sellers on demand and shrinking, and the willingness to place orders in advance and stock stocks has obviously weakened.Essence
The weak consumer electronics market is the most important factor for the chip industry to enter the downward cycle.Statistics show that consumer electronics currently accounts for more than 60 % of the market demand market, but with the disappearance of special needs during the epidemic, global smartphones, personal computers and home appliances shipments in the first three quarters of 2022 have appeared in the third quarter.Flow.
The market pressure faced by the global chip industry in 2023 is still not easy.On the one hand, the global economy has entered a downward cycle, the probability of decline in major economies such as Europe and the United States has increased, and the demand for consumption in enterprises and individuals is still difficult to boost; on the other hand, it takes time for inventory digestion and clearing, and it is difficult to rewrite the situation where the chip supply is too required in the short term.Not only that, the loosening of excess capacity in the industry takes more time.Morgan Danley predicts that the global wafer capacity utilization rate will fall to 70%to 80%in the second quarter of 2023, and it will not be recovered to 90%until the second half of the year.
However, the market that changes and active will not annihilate all hope.
In recent years, emerging industries such as 5G, autonomous driving, data centers, artificial intelligence, Yuan universe, and wearable devices will all form a strong force for the future of semiconductor demand.Take a car, not only the autonomous driving system will have a lot of demand for advanced processor chips, memory chips, and sensors. Other functions of the car also need a large number of chips to manage, such as smart cockpit, airbags and power management, and the intelligence of the car at the same time.The higher the degree, the greater the amount of data generated during runtime, and the more demand for the chip.According to the Sohu Auto Research Office, by 2025, the average annual compound growth rate of the global automobile memory chip market will reach 14.94%.At the same time, Gartner pointed out that from 2022 to 2025, the value of semiconductor components contained in each car will increase from $ 712 to $ 931.Comprehensive judgment, IDC believes that the global chip market has been in 10 years, and the total market value will exceed $ 1 trillion.
