Author: Ji Lan
Source: Hong Kong 01
It was less than three months before the US election. According to the latest survey results from the Columbia Broadcasting Corporation (CBS) from August 4th to 7th, former US Vice President and Democratic Presidential candidate Joe BidenThe support rates of Pennsylvania's two key swing states are 6 percentage points higher than US President Trump.
A poll made by Congress Mountain from August 2nd to 5th shows that in the scope of voters in the United States, Trump's support rate is 40%, which is lower than Biden's 43%support.You know, this is the smallest gap between the two people's transfer in recent months. The multiple polls made by many institutions have shown that Biden has led with nearly 10 percentage points (such as economists and yougovs in AugustThe poll from the 2nd to 4th is the result of 49%of Biden on Trump).
In fact, since May, Biden's support led first Trump as a state of mainstream polls, and even the polls of Trump's Huos News Network. For example, on July 23, the News NetworkThe polls released show that Trump's support in Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania has lost its support.
Although polls cannot be used as the final criteria for measuring the election, it does reflect that Trump's election is worrying.
The new coronary pneumonia has become the largest black swan in the United States election.If it wasn't for this epidemic, Trump's re -election is larger than now: at that time, the US stock market was high; the unemployment rate was low, and the unemployment rate in December 2019 was only 3.5%, which was the lowest level in 50 years;The first -stage trade agreement was reached in China, and Trump's expectation of China to buy and buy will meet the demands of agricultural state voters hell; HelloP;
The outbreak of the epidemic has made the unemployment rate at a high level. The unemployment rate in July was 10.2%(below 14.7%below the highest peak in April. Such numbers are not too much for countries such as Canada.For the United States who have no savings or social security, it is a serious problem, which is the political issue of the US government). It is still higher than the financial crisis in 2008 that the financial crisis has reached 10%of the peak reached in October 2009.According to the data released by the Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor on August 7, as of July 12, the number of people who had continued to apply for unemployment relief was 16.1 million, which was still at a high level of ten times the same period last year (2019).Affected by the epidemic, by the end of June, China has not yet reached the target level of the US agriculture.Trump can be used to attract voters' chips.
Unlike many East Asia and European countries, the United States is still struggling with the epidemic. The number of diagnosis has exceeded 5 million and the number of deaths exceeds 160,000.From the beginning of the outbreak of the epidemic, Trump has always affirmed himself and preached that the number of people diagnosed in the United States was due to the large number of tests. In an interview with Australian reporters, the death rate of the United States (the number of deaths was low infected)The U.S. epidemic is responsible for it today.
Various disputes caused by the epidemic, economy, and Trump are suffering from the confidence of the American people about Trump. Its support rate has always been lower than Biden's dissatisfaction with the people, and it has also allowed the outside world to see his reelection.
Compared to Trump, who has always occupied the headlines of public opinion, Biden is relatively quiet.This method of basically no sense of existence is precisely a strategy.
Trump ignited everywhere. For Biden, as long as Trump did, Biden did not do it or as long as Trump did not do it, Biden did it.It can be seen that when Trump does not support social distances, Biden closed his door at home.When Trump refused to wear a mask in public, Biden showed a mask with a face.When Trump threatened to use military forces to deal with the life of black people, Biden kneeling on his knees to talk to the black man.
At the same time, Biden sat down to see Trump's mistake.As mentioned above, the economic and social issues of the United States and the controversial speech of Trump are affecting his re -election.The more you say, the more mistakes. Trump is digging for himself, and Biden only wait for him to jump down.
Biden does not have to show a strong desire to express, which helps his elections.Of course, there are personal considerations of Biden.He is a controversial person like Trump. For example, on many occasions, he missed that 120 million people in the United States died of new crown pneumonia.The actual total population is 330 million).After winning Super Tuesday, he also confused his wife and sister.The unparalleled expression on the public occasion is the disadvantage of Biden, and he needs to speak as little as possible.
For voters, it is not easy to choose one among Trump and Biden.Trump's exaggeration and extreme remarks will only tear in American society further. The letter -and -yellow, and the responsibility of pushing the lords during the epidemic prevention process has lowered the level of US leaders.This made the outside world suspect the possibility of Trump's re -election.
Trump is unreliable, but Biden?It is not necessarily welcomed by the public.Biden has been in politics for many years, and is the old face of politics. Voters have been aesthetically fatigue such as the Democratic Party campaign program headed by him.
The reality is that the people have to make a choice from these two people.This scene is similar to the 2016 election.At that time, many voters cast votes to Trump because they did not like former US Secretary of State Hillary Hillary, but they did not really support Trump.This year's election is likely to turn their eyes to Biden because they hate Trump, and they may not necessarily support Biden.
