Liu Jiaming
In the past two months, like most Chinese people, every night, I have been waiting for the epidemic data of the 2019 coronary virus in the Ministry of Health. The mood has also rolled up with the high and low data, which is worrying.
In the past week, the Ministry of Health was announced in the afternoon to announce the confirmation data, and then published other details at night. This can first reduce everyone's suspense and let the people who want to understand the data to analyze the information slowly at night.Since the whole situation has been grasped from the beginning of the epidemic, the data published by the Ministry of Health of my country is the most transparent and accurate.
According to the daily data, the Ministry of Health and various newspapers media use data visualization technology driven by big data developed in recent years. It is presented in the simplest and easy -to -understand way in the most simple and easy -to -understand way, allowing readers to understand the data.So we know that the virus will be passed on from the people. The elderly and male patients (even some blood type) are risk groups. They know that the virus incubation period, infection period and infection area, various symptoms at the time of onset, the number of cases, the number of healing and the mortality rate of the healing, and the mortality rate.etc.
From a statistical perspective, we have probably touched this virus, and the data that continue to appear may not change anything.However, we have not obtained a deeper analysis and understanding from the so -called big data of subverting technology, let alone the contribution of the predictive function of big data in this anti -epidemic operation.
According to the epidemic standards of the World Health Organization, it is necessary to understand that the spread of epidemic diseases is called the basic infection value (BASIC Reproduction Ratio (R0), which represents the average number of people infected by the virus.If R0 is greater than 1, it means that the epidemic is continuing to spread and can develop into an epidemic disease. Generally, it is necessary to consider the sealing of the city when it is close to 2.If R0 is lower than 1, it means that the epidemic will slowly slow down and be controlled.Of course, the algorithm of R0 is not the non -professionals of us.
At present, the data we know does not include R0, so it is difficult to understand the seriousness of the situation from the number of new cases.However, there are no sources of infection from about one -third of the current confirmed cases, which means that the R0 of these individual cases is at least 2, and the situation is worrying.
The tests of this coronary virus in all countries in the world have different practices. Many times, the situation has been lost before the situation has been out of control.With the increase and popularity of testing, the cases discovered will naturally increase, and sometimes they reach amazing numbers.However, there are not comprehensive tests in some places, so there are few cases of diagnosis, so the number of confirmed cases in a single day has become meaningless.
At the beginning of our country, it should be only detected by suspected cases, and there is also a public health defense clinic (PHPC) as the front -line filter, plus a special preferential disease leave system to encourage the PHPC mechanism of the Chinese people who have doubts about themselves, soThe number of test people is not large.
my country may have begun to increase testing of guest workers and related contacts, and it seems that the number of diagnosis will increase rapidly.Tens of thousands of people are isolated from various ways in various ways in the densely residential cities of more than 5 million people. Can these data tell us more?Can data analysis be played here?
Let's re -understand the darling of the big data.The database processed by big data should be large, involving a very wide level, very large and fast traffic. In this case, big data technology can analyze and predict the problems that humans or general computer systems cannot cope with.
The raid of this coronal virus has been incompletely collected from all over the world for several months. The collection standards are different and lack of mutual management.The requirements of big data.So far, it is basically the statistical data that is collected. Big data technology can not be blamed for no contribution except for showing the use of data charts.
I remember that during the Shace epidemic period 17 years ago, when we knew that we had to ensure that there were no new cases in 21 days, we could be removed from the list of international epidemic areas.
Even if the big data technology is immature or can not be used by the field, I believe that the data expertise and analysts may have comprehensively analyzed and understood the epidemic and movement from different aspects of data.
At the shadow and people's hearts of the crown disease 19 this time, the people can only follow the official measures and restrictions on life, and simultaneously curb the epidemic with the government.If you can also understand the ins and outs of the epidemic and resistance, you may have a clearer goal and hope, and you may see the dawn faster.
The author is an electronic engineer
