The coronary virus epidemic has a significant impact on the political economy and world structure of various countries, which can be discussed from four aspects.
First, the epidemic develops from east to west.Although there are still repeated possibilities, the Chinese epidemic is generally controlled.
Trump recently said that the United States conducted 1.4 million and 5 million tests within a month or two. Because some people had to test multiple times to confirm the diagnosis, the current population ratio was low. It is estimated that the actual numberThere are more people; and the peak of the epidemic is far from the arrival, and the impact of the crown disease will be greater than other countries.
The second is the impact of the epidemic.The global anti -epidemic meeting lasted for a period of time, and it was difficult for countries to recover quickly.At present, China is difficult to resume work on the one hand, and on the other hand, the unemployment rate of urban economy has risen, and the resumption of work and re -production cannot solve the problem of unemployment in the country.E -commerce express and other resumptions are like writing the first left of the left side of the eight characters. After the service industry in the city is opened as usual, it is considered to start writing the second skimming on the right.
In the United States, Trump claims to be the president of war, and he sees the media almost every day.The Federal Reserve's Unlimited and Loose (QE) is used to use the U.S. World War II practices; helicopters can also win the hearts of the people, and they all benefit Trump for re -election.
The federal government's fiscal deficit in 2019 was US $ 102 trillion, the highest value since 2012, with a deficit rate of about 4.6%.
At present, the impact of the real economy's epidemic is just the beginning, and the US fiscal deficit rate rate will rise in the future. This year, the two -digit deficit rate rate is a probability event.In 2000, US Treasury bonds were about 55%of GDP (GDP), and 107%in 2019, and further increase in the future.
The third is the process of globalization.China has economic scale production capacity, as well as production factors that are sufficient and rapidly transforming into production capacity.In the early stage of resistance, shortage of medical supplies in China.After that, Chinese automobile companies quickly established a mask production line, and they could produce more than 110 million masks every day. Now they are more foreign and exported with medical supplies.
The lack of medical supplies such as masks in the United States, the government coordinates the production or purchase efficiency of the purchase or purchase, but it is called residents to not wear masks, which is very unfavorable to suppressing the epidemic, and also shows that the United States lacks production capacity and economic vitality.
However, there is still no currency to replace the US dollar, becoming the main international reserve and settlement currency, and the US dollar hegemony can still be maintained.The United States has printed money, and the domestic production during the epidemic has decreased, and inflation and even stagflation are inevitable.At the same time, the purchase of US dollars in multiple countries has also indirectly contributed to the United States' resistance.
The first phase of the Sino -US trade agreement is a temporary agreement reached between the two countries. The ending will be a bit like the Bleasthe Treaty (compiled: refers to the suspension agreement signed by Germany and Germany in 1918). It is difficult to implement it.
International trade will be impacted in the short term.There are currently gates of various countries; some countries will also reduce export of grain and resource products.
But in the long run, the globalization process will continue, which is determined by the law of market laws and enterprises.
The fourth is the right to speak.During the resistance, China and the United States were fierce.The contradictions between the two countries will not change with the group of the 20th Group's response to the special video of the crown disease, as well as Xi Jinping and the general call of Trump.
At present, the U.S. elite must face two political challenges: in China, the effectiveness of resistance is the most important; the loose currency environment will inevitably make the rich and the poor in the United States, and further expand after the epidemic.
China does not expect the United States to copy China, but the epidemic tests the US government's ability to govern, and the American people will have their own views.
Internationally, countries that effectively control the epidemic will win a greater right to speak.It is a wishful wish to compare the outbreak of the Wuhan outbreak to the Chel Nobel nuclear accident.The United States engaged in hegemony, but it was self -closed during resistance; China has relatively expanded its international influence through foreign aid.
Yiyezhiqiu, global anti -epidemic reflects the change of the current world.
(The author is a senior Hong Kong commentator)
