Industrial and Commercial Times Society
In the evening of Sunday (March 8) London time, the international crude oil futures market plummeted after the opening.The biggest decline in a single day in history.Obviously, the fuse that ignites this wave of international oil prices is that the National Organization of Petroleum Organization and Russia (OPEC+) Ministerial Conferences last Friday was a breakthrough in the meeting.The raging, which led to the reduction of demand to be held, actually threatened to increase production by the Sausa country.In the case of negative supply and demand, the collapse of this oil price was triggered.
However, in the past, OPEC and Russia had disagreement of output control, and the examples of increasing production were not uncommon. However, international oil prices did not have a huge collapse like this time. There were three reasons: First of all, when the previous production reduction negotiation broke the situation, even if Russia increased production, even if the production was increased, it was increased.The Sands can always offset the impact through moderate reduction of production.Unexpectedly, the Saudi Kingdom not only did not want to play a buffer role, but also planned to greatly increase the output of crude oil until more than 10 million barrels per day.Under the high residual capacity of the Saudi Crude Oil, the market's concerns about the low oil price of supply factor for low oil prices have been greatly increased.
Secondly, the current new crown pneumonia's epidemic has gradually spread around the world, especially after China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy also have large -scale infections, and closed management measures have been initiated.EssenceIf the global epidemic continues to deteriorate, the demand for transportation oil will be reduced in the short term, and the consumption of crude oil will be dragged down due to the decline in economic prosperity, which will directly or indirectly lead to a sharp decrease in demand for crude oil.
Third, the price war of the Saudi State is reminiscent of OPEC's failure experience in the war on the US shale oil.Looking back at the end of 2014, OPEC launched a price war without cutting production, trying to expel the market with relatively high production costs.Under OPEC's abandonment of production reduction, Brant crude oil in recent months from the 2014 highs of $ 115 / barrel, all the way to the lowest 27.88 US $ 27.88 / barrel in early 2016, but still failed to pay as expected.In the end, OPEC was defeated and returned to the production reduction strategy, and international oil prices stabilized again.Even after many years, the Saudi State launched a price war, causing the unbearable results of oil prices to fall.
As a result, as oil prices plummeted, the global stocks, foreign exchange, and bond markets that had already affected the epidemic of new crown pneumonia had a significant fluctuation of bone -cards.On Monday, the American SP 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 7.6%and 7.79%, respectively, and the largest daily decline since the financial tsunami became the financial tsunami.The European FTSE 100 Index and the Nikkei 225 index also fell.Under this circumstance, market funds have poured into insurance assets, causing the yield rate of 10 -year public debt in the United States to a record low of 0.31%.Retoning 3%to 102.17, a three -year high.In contrast, the currency of the oil -producing country has been severely damaged.
However, the future will develop towards the two situations.Situation first is that OPEC has the possibility of re -negotiation with Russia.After all, the main purpose of the Saudi production to increase production is to force Russia to join the ranks of production reduction. The ultimate goal is to use the reduction of production to maintain oil prices. It is not the price war between the shale oil industry as in 2014.Therefore, even if the Saudi country increases production, it should not be maintained for too long, and all circles do not have to be overly pessimistic about the future crude oil market outlook.
Furthermore, after this wave of international oil prices, high -cost oil products such as shale oil and deep -sea crude oil manufacturers may reduce production or even withdraw from the market.In particular, the possibility of a significant breakthrough in non -traditional crude oil mining technology is far lower than in 2014. It has made US shale oil investors continue to inject funds as much as factors and other factors.The output of the country's increase will be smaller than expected.
What's more, the breakthrough of this negotiations caused a large decline in oil prices, and I am afraid that far beyond the expectations of sand and Russia, and there are many economic failure among OPEC member states, and even the countries with constant civil war are urgently needed to support the domestic economy.It is also impossible to bear the long -term downturn.From the latest financial revenue and expenditure balancing oil price (Fiscal Break-Even Price) information released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it can be seen that the current $ 30 / barrel oil price is lower than the financial revenue and expenditure balance of all OPEC member states.Promote OPEC member states to put pressure on Saudi countries and Russia to promote a new round of negotiations.In addition, for Russia, the loss caused by international oil prices by nearly 30 % was far greater than the loss of Russia's production of 500,000 barrels per day than the original OPEC hoped that Russia would reduce production by 500,000 barrels per day.
It can be seen that from the current situation, the negotiation of production reduction of production in the Sands and Russia has been fully broken, resulting in the possibility of both long -term production increase, and the Russian President Putin has released signals that may be re -negotiated with OPEC after weighing the advantages and disadvantages of OPEC.Essence
The second situation is those who are more likely to cause the deadlock at present, but the young and vigorous sand king's Mohammed Bin Salman.From its frequent diplomatic crisis in recent years, and various behaviors that make international experts difficult to understand, it is difficult to guarantee that the two sides will eventually be unable to work together to reduce production.
However, for the crude oil market, it is far more important to discuss OPEC and Russia's reduction in production.Because the impact of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic on the global economy will undoubtedly cause global crude oil demand this year to shrink.If the epidemic has spread, the new crown pneumonia has shifted from epidemic to global epidemic (Pandemic), and the ultimate impact of global crude oil demand will far exceed the expected production reduction.At that time, the official oil price crisis is officially coming.
