The primary election of the US Democratic Party is in full swing. What people are concerned about is which candidate for the Democratic Party has the ability to defeat the current President Trump.Although there are too many factors affecting the US elections, in terms of ideology, the core issue raised by the Democratic Election this time is that the United States is ready to go to European -style democratic socialism or social democracy?
Everything began in the 1980s, the new liberal economics that rose from the American Reagan Revolution and the British Sache Revolution as the starting point.New Liberal Economics has promoted decades of economic globalization, or the super globalization as Harvard professor Dani Rodrik.On the one hand, globalization, along with the accelerated development technology (especially artificial intelligence), created unprecedented huge wealth on the one hand, on the other hand, leading to the huge wealth and income differences between the social classes inside and from all over the country, and also caused a high degree of division of society.
After the global economic crisis in 2008, it was marked by the Wall Street Movement of the United States, and countries around the world set off a wave of anti -globalization.How to respond to the challenges brought by globalization and technological progress?This is the core issue faced by political forces in the world in the past 10 years.
In the United States, the government of former President Obama hopes to cope with the problem through traditional European -style methods, including strengthening the government's income distribution function, social security and welfare to the bottom of the society.However, Obama's approach was immediately regarded by the Republican Party as guiding the United States to the road of socialism, and Trump rose there.Historically, the Republican Republican Party represents the interests of large enterprises, and large companies are effective tools for the United States to promote globalization.It should be said that large American companies are also the biggest beneficiaries of this wave of globalization.
Trump looks accurate and timely.As a businessman, he knows that large US companies oppose the government's high tax policies and European -style welfare socialism.So how to deal with the challenges facing the United States and solve internal problems?Trump aimed at globalization and thought it was the origin of all issues.Internally, he moved out Reaganism again, mainly to reduce taxes on enterprises.These internal and external policies are viewed by Trump as a great solution for the United States.
The political operation of Trump's right populism is also very successful. After becoming the president, he did not say a word, and vigorously promoted the promise he made during the campaign.Therefore, Reaganism, which is disguised internally, implements trade protectionism, economic nationalism, and anti -immigrant policies.
However, Trump's policy has not achieved the expected results.Internally, the effectiveness of re -industrialization is not significant, and it has not effectively absorbed US capital backflow; the difference in income differences continues to deteriorate, neither the white middle class or ethnic minority groups have not improved.External, its anti -globalization policy has led to the retreat of the United States from many important international platforms, and its international influence has been reduced.This further led to unprecedented differentiation and opposition from the political between the United States.
Changes in social ideology
At the social level, Americans' preference for political ideology has been changing.In November 2017, a poll from the public opinion agency (YOUGOV) showed that most Americans from 21 to 29 years old like socialism than capitalism and believe that the existing capitalist economic system in the United States is not good for them.In the November 2017 elections, there were also 15 politicians from the Democratic Socialist of America.
According to a survey by Gallup's polls, socialism is increasingly recognized in the US Democratic Party.By 2018, 57%of the Democratic Party held a positive evaluation of socialism. This number was 53%in 2016.Similarly, among the voters of the Democratic Party, people who hold a positive attitude towards capitalism have also dropped from 56%in 2016 to 47%in 2018.This situation appears to the pro -Republican group to a certain extent.
In 2018, 16%of the Republican voters and 37%of the US adults held a positive view of socialism, and the ratio of these two groups on capitalism was 71%and 56%, respectively.In addition, a survey by Harris Poll in 2019 shows that women are more inclined to socialism than men, and women who are between 18 and 54 are tended to choose to live in a socialist society, andThe same survey shows that most men choose a capitalist society.According to the results of a poll in 2019, as many as 70%of people born in the millennials tend to choose socialist presidential candidates, and more than 30%of them even choose communist candidates.
Can changes in social ideology affect the actual politics of the United States?This Democratic Party's election can be said to be a test.
Democratic candidate Sanders also became the focus.Sanders claims to be a social democrat, and has a lot of love for the Nordic Narcane's Navia's democratic socialist model. Over the years, it is stated that the United States has to learn European democratic socialist models for many years.He even affirmed some of Cuba's achievements, such as medical and popular education.He is supported by the United States with a social group (especially young people) with democratic socialist tendencies and is considered a representative.
Sanders participated in the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2016. Although it failed in the end, it won a great political influence.In the past four years, Sanders has promoted a grass -roots movement of democratic socialism in the United States, which has formed a considerable momentum so far.This is similar to that of Bannon, who later became a Trump consultant, was similar to the right -style nationalist grass -roots movement earlier.Bannon's right -level populist grassroots movement with nationalism as the core has become the social foundation of Trump's election.
In the primary election of the Democratic Party, many policies advocated by Sanders resonated with many Americans.Sanders believes that capitalism in the United States has evolved to the level of force, so it must be weakened in an extreme way.He advocated that 20%of the company's shares were left for employees; policies such as advocating health insurance for the whole people, increasing the taxes of the rich, and raising the minimum wage were also advocated that the university was free of tuition fees.In terms of environmental protection, he has to ban nuclear power generation, but to build a zero -carbon emissions economy.In terms of foreign trade, Sanders and Trump also criticized open markets and free trade.
However, the restlessness of democratic systems (or all other anti -Sanders), in addition to these policies that he proposed as left, there are also Sanders's personality, or a similar to Trump -likePersonality.Sanders is regarded as the characteristics of the eyes that have a grain of sand that have a firm belief.As the economists have pointed out, Sanders has a tendency to danger, that is, he will do nothing for the purpose.For the American politics that has been disrupted by Trump with hatred, Sanders's election campaign is considered to be further nourishing hatred.
This has led to the current dilemma of Sanders being surrounded by all parties.He must first face the Democratic parties.The gentle Democrats are worried that Sanders's left policies will make him be labeled with radical left and lose the election while duel.Biden.
However, to a large extent, this is just appearance.The core issue is that once Sanders's claim is implemented, it will not only have an impact on the vested interest groups (both the Republican or Democratic Party), but also affect the overall capitalist system of the United States.Obama's extremely high -ful European socialist measures have encountered a huge rebound, let alone Sanders such a radical democratic socialist route?
In other words, the process of the rise of leftist democratic socialism represented by Sanders is much more difficult to rise than the rise of rightist populism.The reason is simple. The target of Trump's civilian is mainly external forces (such as foreign governments, foreign capital, and foreign immigrants). The advocated trade protectionism, economic nationalism, and immigration policies have no impact on the distribution of internal interests to the distribution of internal interests., Or have a small impact; and the target of the Sanders route is the internal vested interest, which will cause huge internal interests to re -assign.
What challenges do American liberalism face
From a historical point of view, this phenomenon is not unusual and is the normal state of the United States.In terms of experience, socialism is the product of Europe, and the United States has never had the soil of socialism. Some of the factors of American socialism are also imported foreign forces.This determines that the word socialism in the United States is a deep -rooted political ideology, and it is an ideological form that can lead to solidarity in all aspects.
Some immigrants from Europe to the United States in the early days have also done the test of socialism in the United States, but the United States itself has never produced socialist ideas.Each socialist movement in the United States has endlessly achieved active results, which makes the United States avoid European -style socialism.
What's more, because of the correlation or consistency of socialism and communism in Americans, some socialist thoughts or trends of progress are often regarded as communist movements, and the government represented by the vested interests of capitalism.There have been two so -called red panic in the history of the United States, referring to the trend of anti -communism in the United States.The first occurred between 1917 and 1920. After the outbreak of the Russian Revolution in October, the U.S. government saw the threat behind an anarchist revolution and political radicalism. Therefore, a series of restrictions on the freedom of people's speech, exported suspected radicals and ex -expelction.Anarchist movement.
The second red panic began in 1947 after the Second World War, and reached its peak under the catalytic catalytic of McCarthyism in the early 1950s.In the early 1950s, Republican Senator McCarthy rendered the penetration of communism to the United States, inciting people in politics and the literary and art circles to expose each other. Many well -known people such as actors Chaplin and scientist Einstein were implicated.
Even though McCarthy's decline in the mid -1950s, the anti -communist thinking in this wave of red panic still deeply affected many policies in the United States.In recent years, the fear of the United States for China has led to the rise of the new version of McCarthonism that some American scholars think of, that is, every year.
In fact, Sanders's progressive view has been regarded as an enemy of Western liberalism by American liberalist.Before the Democratic Party ’s primaries (March 3), the Economist, who has always represents a liberal economic policy, described Sanders to make the United States see a nightmare that cannot be woke up, AmericansHurry up and sober.This magazine said: Sometimes you wake up from a nightmare, but find that you are still dreaming, and the nightmare is still continuing.The United States is more and more likely to face this situation.Democratic candidate Sanders is about to wake the United States from the nightmare of Trump's first term, but falls into another nightmare called Sanders.
In this case, socialism can hardly become an independent American political force.Of course, this is not to say that the United States does not need European -style democratic socialism.In fact, American socialist forces can only become a dependent power.As the former US President Reagan said, the socialist power of the United States is attached to liberalism.The implication is that American liberalism is capable of absorbing and digesting European -style socialist forces.
The fact is true.The Great Depression in the 1930s led to the rise of the European socialist movement, and in the United States, Keynesism was resolved by the state's intervention of the economy.Later, some political forces that were constantly appearing on socialist ideology were achieved by supporting mainstream political forces (mainly Democratic Party) or its president to achieve their goals.This situation did not change until the Obama era. For example, the US democratic socialist organization was Obama's strong supporters.
Liberalism in the United States is facing challenges.On the one hand, such as the gentle school pointed out that if the United States has to choose one between Trump and Sanders in the end, these two options are terrible, and there will be no good results; on the other hand, if the current situationContinue, the challenges faced by the US capitalist system will become larger and larger, causing the final overall crisis.Therefore, for them, the choice of rationality is a gentle school (such as Bayeng), which promotes the proposition and strength of gentle absorption and digestion of Sanders.
However, this is not the end of the problem, but the beginning of the problem, because no one can ensure that mild liberalists can eventually defeat the radical rights represented by Trump.
For American people, democratic socialism may be a good choice, just like European countries have proven.The question is how to transform this cognition into practice and convert this ideology into a practical policy?It seems that although democratic socialism will not disappear in the United States, the road is still rugged away from the president's throne.
(The author is a professor at the National University of Singapore and East Asia)
The article only represents personal point of view
