● Crown disease 19 epidemic
Experts believe that with cases of more and more countries, the strategy of trying to prevent virus transmission will become increasingly inevitable.At a certain stage, health authorities in various countries may have to shift their focus from preventing blockage to the impact of the epidemic.
(Paris Composite Electric) 2019 Coronatte Virus Disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly outside China, exposing that there are defects for discovering and tracking this fatal virus.Studies have shown that even the best quarantine methods may be more than half of the infected people who become fish leakage, which means that the practice of global quarantine air passengers is difficult to achieve the effect of curb virus transmission.
The United States and British researchers use computer models, and predict whether airport quarantine passengers are valid based on the characteristics of coronary virus and how long the patients will have symptoms.They found that many cases often pass the level.
Gostech, a scholar at the University of Chicago, said: If anyone does not know that they are infected and have no symptoms, (instruments) are basically impossible to detect their hellip; hellip;Infected passengers will become a fish that is missing.
A study by the Empire College of London and the World Health Organization also found that two -thirds of cases from China were not detected by countries, which caused many interpersonal communication chains outside China.
Little or mild symptoms in some cases may not be detected
Research on French public health institution Liva MDASH; Bruch said that a problem of coronary virus is a series of clinical symptoms, including the disease will not be more serious than ordinary colds.This means that people with little or mild symptoms may not be discovered.
Another type is even more difficult to find in the infected person without any signs of infection.Scientists say that these asymptomatic cases may be only a few, and the research so far confirmed that in most cases, people with symptoms have spread diseases.
In most studies, the average incubation period between patients infected to the onset is 10 days, so the proposed quarantine period for suspicious or suspected cases is 14 days.However, Chinese experts have recently concluded that the incubation period may be extended to 24 or even 27 days.
Other scientists doubt it.Levy MDash; Bruch said: Recent data shows that the situation is the opposite. The incubation period is actually shorter, and the possibility of more than 14 days is very low.
The WHO expert Azdam Pana pointed out that even if the latent period of patients is more than 14 days, the situation is rare.He said: Popularity is not spread through extreme cases, but based on the overall situation.We must focus on the most common situation.
Lack of resources to continue identification and isolation
Experts believe that with cases of more and more countries, the strategy of trying to prevent virus transmission will become increasingly inevitable.At a certain stage, health authorities in various countries may have to shift their focus from preventing blockage to the impact of the epidemic.
Kochmez, an expert in the Bastel Research Institute in France, said: In that case, we will not be able to continue to identify and isolate all cases because there are not enough resources.
In developed countries, this may seriously affect the health system.Azdama pointed out: 85%of the infected people are not seriously ill.However, severe cases are more serious than seasonal influenza, and they must be hospitalized.
In less developed countries, it is more difficult to solve the outbreak.Compared with West Africa's Ebola epidemic, the mortality rate of crown disease is lower, but it is also more difficult to discover and stop.
Kohmez said: Even if the mortality rate is only 3%, if the population is infected with 30%to 60%, the total number of deaths may be large.
