The Taiwan Economic Daily's article pointed out that since the two months of the outbreak of the coronary virus epidemic, not only has no sign of slowing down, but it has a tendency to expand global.As the number of diagnosis in mainland China has gradually decreased, many countries have continued to surge in infection. Among them, Japan, South Korea, and Italy are the most serious.According to the latest statistics of WHO, in the past two days, the number of people in the world has exceeded China in the international single -day plus, which indicates that the virus has spread around the world.panic.
Affected by the epidemic, everyone chose to stay at home and not go out for consumption. Various activities are reduced, and the economies of various countries will naturally be affected.At present, the IMF is estimated that the global economic growth rate will be repaired from 3.3%to 3.2%this year, of which the economic growth rate of the mainland will decrease at least 0.4 percentage points, and the remaining 5.6%.We believe that IMF's estimation may be slightly conservative, because the epidemic is now spreading globally and it is difficult to control in the short term, so the impact of the future economy will continue to expand.
The situation in Taiwan is no exception. The latest estimated economic growth rate of this year is 2.37%, which is 0.35 percentage points from the original estimate of 2.72%.This estimation was slightly smaller than the SARS in 2003. At that time, Taiwan's economic growth rate fell by about 0.57%.However, the assumption of the General Planning Office is that the epidemic is maintained for three months. If the time is lengthened, the negative impact will naturally be greater.
Mainland China is not only a global manufacturing plant, but also a major consumer market in the world. Therefore, when its economic activities are stagnant, the impact on the global economy cannot be underestimated.
From the perspective of consumption, the number of tourists from mainland China reached 150 million in 2018, with an expenditure of US $ 27.7 billion, accounting for 16%of global tourism expenditure.%.Now these expenditures are basically disappeared, and the impact of the global consumer market is self -evident.
In addition, last year, the mainland's total car consumption reached 25.7 million, which is also the world's largest car consumer market. Now these consumption has basically stopped.
As for production, it cannot be underestimated. Among them, electronics, electrical, machinery, and automobile industries have the largest impact. The output value of the first three mainland accounts for about 50 % of the world's output value and about 30 % of cars.In the case that the mainland factories cannot fully resume work, the above -mentioned products will have a shortage of global supply. Many of them are important components. In the case of fine division of labor in the international industrial chain, some of the main zero produced by the mainland are zero -produced zero -produced zero zero.In case of a shortage of components, the international supply chain will break the chain. This is a problem that many Taiwanese businessmen and international companies are very worried.
In addition, the global stock market has fallen sharply in recent days. Compared with the indexes earlier this year, most of the decline in important stock markets such as Europe and the United States and Japan have more than 5%.Because the epidemic is difficult to control in the short term, the consumption of nationals in various countries is greatly reduced, and at the same time, the production of manufacturers will be reduced, which will be worse for the impact of the international economy, so the international stock market may be difficult to optimistic in the short term.In other words, the epidemic effect on the black swan brought by the international economy may be greater and bigger, and governments of various countries cannot also take it lightly.
Back in Taiwan, the Executive Yuan has passed a special budget plan with a scale of 60 billion yuan, including 19.6 billion yuan (NT $, the same below) and budget budget of 40.4 billion yuan.Compared with the government's consumer coupon with about 85 billion in consumer coupons at the time of the financial tsunami, the current scale is slightly smaller, but because the current situation of Taiwan's economy is also smaller than at the time, the current amount should be reasonable.However, we must specifically point out that the current general plan is estimated to have only one season that Taiwan has been affected, but it seems that the epidemic is unlikely to end before the end of March.Therefore, we recommend that the government's bailout plan and scale should be elastic as much as possible to respond to the uncertainty.
Finally, this time the most impactful industry, including tourism, catering, retail and transportation, etc., most of them are small and medium -sized enterprises, and their employment workers.It is the focus of this time.
