Author: Lee Wo Wall
The crown disease has a slowdown in mainland China, but the neighboring South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Europe in Italy and the Middle East Iran have out of control, and the global economic growth has once again covered a layer of haze.For the mainland, the city has been closed for a long time, and the difficulty of re -resumption of work is heavy, and the affected industries will become more and more; consumption, investment, and import and export economic activities are suppressed; mainland folk consumption accounts for nearly 40 % of GDP, and eventually the mainland's civilian consumption, in the end, eventually, in the endEconomic impact has also expanded.Some people believe that new crown pneumonia is a more severe challenge for imposing tariffs than the United States.
Wuhan is a town of mainland panels and memory. There are many PCB indicator factories in Taiwan set up factories in Hubei, and the supply chain will be affected.Wuhan is also a key area of the automotive industry, and the automobile industry will be severely tested.Furthermore, the withdrawal of overseas Chinese from all over the country has caused foreign companies and high -end scientific and technological talents; coupled with the broken flight, it will trigger another wave of out; hinders the development of 5G in the mainland.
On the other hand, once the company's comprehensive closure is closed, the investment output is unfavorable, causing debt defaults, and then transmitted to the banking system, the systemic financial risks will increase.Mainland Caixin announced on February 3 that the PMI of China Caixin's manufacturing industry was 51.1, which was lower than the early 51.5, and fell for two consecutive months, and hit a new low in 5 months.The January manufacturing PMI announced by the Mainland Statistics Bureau was 50, which was lower than the previous month.
Recently, Wall Street Investment Bank has also repaired the economic growth rate of the mainland, and even warned the impact of the epidemic to surpass SARS; the Deutsche Bank estimates that the growth rate of the first quarter of this year has been significantly reduced to 4.6%;The new coronary pneumonia's epidemic will shake the mainland economy. This year's growth rate may be difficult to protect, which will affect the United States and other countries.Even the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that the length of the first quarter of this year may be less than 5%, and it seems that it should not be very optimistic.
Theoretically, the economic downturn will inevitably force the renminbi to degrade; the RMB has intensified due to the trade war over the past year.The RMB, which had shown stable and slightly appreciated since the beginning of last year, disrupted due to Trump's tariffs on Trump in early May last year.First of all, the offshore RMB exchange rate fell below the 6.94 yuan mark in the early morning on May 7th. After the new low since November the previous year, narrow range shocks occurred.However, at the G20 Osaka Special Conference, the first trading day of the US -China trade war was determined that the first trading day of the US -China trade war once again drove offshore RMB to 6.8 yuan.However, the world was unpredictable. In early August, it was affected by the trade war and Hong Kong's counter -delivery. The offshore RMB fell below the 7 yuan level and reached 7.0221 yuan, a new low since the financial tsunami.
From September 1 last year, the United States and China have implemented a new round of tariffs again, and the renminbi has continued to depreciate. The shore and offshore prices have approached the 7.2 -dollar mark at 7.2 again, refreshing for 11 and a half years and 9 years, respectively.Later, after the high -level economic and trade negotiations in the United States and China, the market became optimistic, the market has turned optimistically, the stock exchange rebounds, the RMB has risen all the way, and it is maintained near the 7 yuan level before the end of the year.
However, since the spread of the new crown pneumonia on January 20 this year, the exchange rate of the RMB has depreciated by more than 2%.In particular, with the recent return of funds to the US dollar, and speculators' selling pressure on the stop loss of the renminbi, the offshore RMB closed on February 21, closed at 7.0462, and set up more than two months for more than two months.New low.In the future, people will develop with the epidemic. If the epidemic is not visible, the demand for risk aversion in the US dollar will increase, and the renminbi will increase the pressure. On the contrary, it will rise steadily.
(The author is a professor at the Department of Finance and Finance of Tamkang University and deputy director of the Cross -Strait Financial Research Center)
