The latest data released by the German Federal Bureau of Statistics shows that in December last year, the German manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) fell to 43.7, and the manufacturing order in the same month fell 2.1%, the largest decline in the year.
Theoretically, the decline in PMI represents the convergence and pause of the company's production expansion activities, and the reduction of commercial orders shows the loss of customers and the weakening of product market competitiveness.The continuity of decline, but does it mean that Made in Germany has begun to go downhill?
Observed from time to time, the weakness of German manufacturing is not a short -term phenomenon.After 11 consecutive months in 2018, after the end of the year to 51.5, which was very close to the 50th glory line, the German manufacturing PMI was torn out for the first time in four years in four years.The 12 consecutive months could not be able to stand to more than 50 in a row. Last year, the final value of the manufacturing PMI of the manufacturing industry was 44.43. Germany became the country with the worst manufacturing PMI performance in the euro zone in the past year.Correspondingly, on the basis of shrinking the previous year, German manufacturers' orders in 2019 continued to decrease by 8.7%.
However, in the huge lineup of global manufacturing, the continuous weakness of German manufacturing does not seem to be alone.Dynamic data shows that the global Markit manufacturing PMI has been in the fall channel since seeing the top 55.1 in October 2017. Among them, it fell to 52.3 at the end of 2018 and continued to fall to 48.6 in December 2019., But still run in the contraction range.
From the perspective of the divided area, the European manufacturing PMI in 2019 was 48.7, a year -on -year decrease of 5.6.Essence
In the state where the global manufacturing PMI, especially the European manufacturing PMI, is generally contracted, the German manufacturing PMI is naturally difficult to be alone.Of course, PMIs of manufacturing PMIs in major economies such as the United States, Japan, China, and many European countries are still above the glory line, but the German manufacturing PMI struggles under the glory line.
The root cause of the prosperity of German manufacturing is obviously weaker than other economies, because Germany is a typical export -oriented economy. It can even be said that in major global camps, the German economy has the strongest dependence on export trade, of whichExports have contributed more than 40%to GDP in Germany (GDP); in the composition of export products, the export of manufacturing has played the role of the leading array.
German manufacturers face toxic groups
Not to mention, the three major industries including machinery manufacturing, automobiles and chemical industry are the pillars of exports of German manufacturing. Among them, the German machinery and equipment manufacturing industry represented by Titons Krupp and Heidelberg is the world's largest exporter of machinery and equipment;The German chemical manufacturing industry, which is mainly based on BASF and Demosa, is the world's largest exporter of chemical products; German automobile manufacturing represented by BMW and Mercedes -Benz is the world's largest car exporter.
But it is also these German export brigades that have encountered an unprecedented external environment challenge.According to German domestic economic experts, the international trade situation, Brexit, and in -depth transformation of the automotive industry are a toxic combination for German manufacturers.
In terms of export trade, the United States is the largest export market in Germany and China is the world's largest world -larger trading partner in Germany.The negative effects of Sino -US trade friction also contagious German product exports from the industrial chain.At the same time, 57%of Germany exports to EU countries, especially Britain is Germany's largest export market in Europe.While the Brexit chaos directly weakened German manufacturer's confidence, it also greatly reversed the expectations and kinetic energy of manufacturing companies to expand production.
In addition, German automobile exports account for one -fifth of the total German export volume, but the spread of autonomous driving and new energy vehicle revolution constitutes a lot of impact on German automobile industry, mainly based on traditional fuel kinetic energy.German automobile production fell 12%last year, exports fell 14%, and one -fifth of the German chemical industry and one -third of the revenue of the mechanical manufacturing industry were directly derived from the automotive industry.Essence
From the above analysis, it can be clearly seen that the decline of German manufacturing is mainly caused by external factors, and the German manufacturing PMI and German manufacturing are two different concepts.It is a product concept carrying many contents, including the texture, durability, and safety of the product, which also extends to the product's lean management process.
Therefore, the weakness of the German manufacturing industry is not the same as the weakening of German manufacturing competitiveness, and once the external business environment is improved and demand increases, the German manufacturing will take the lead in the world, as in the global circle as the past.Wind.
Artisan spirit and brand miracle
First of all, Germany's trust and persistence of manufacturing will not change.Watching the world throughout the world, few countries can maintain their awe and loyalty to industrial manufacturing like Germany.Whether it is preparing for war, post -war rebuilding, or responding to the global economic crisis, Germany has always regarded manufacturing as a cockpit stone for national revitalization.Even though many countries release water through currency, let their financial real estate Yingge Yanyan dance continue to create a myth of capital flying. Germany still adheres to the foundation of the manufacturing industry.The worship of the industrial manufacturing industry can be said to be integrated into the blood of the Germans.
It is such love and persistence that the German craftsmanship of German craftsmanship marked uniquely marked with unique symbols and created a miracle of more than 2,300 well -known brands around the world, and then more than 30%of export products in Germany have been hit all over again.The invincibility of the world is spectacular.Today's manufacturing industry accounted for one -fifth of the German economy, and its subsequent towards the National Games and People's livelihood. It is believed that Germans' preference and enthusiasm for manufacturing will continue to increase.
Secondly, the basic cells of the German manufacturing industry have not shaken.Data show that 90%of the 3.5 million companies in Germany are operated by the family.These family companies are the hidden champion of the small and American industry, most of which are small companies and slow companies that continue to focus on a certain field and a certain product. Many life cycles have gone through decades.Intergenerational inheritance, and employee's loyalty, low flow rate, and enterprise's innovation ability is also very outstanding.
On average, the patent owned by German invisible champion companies is five times that of large enterprises.According to public data, the most hidden champions worldwide are Japan, the United States and Germany, including 220, 366 in the United States, and 1307 in Germany, ranking first in the world.cornerstone.
Industrial standards lead the world
Third, the precise management of Germany's production process and equipment system is constantly being upgraded.Murphy's Law believes that people will make mistakes, and they will make mistakes, and this concept has long been deeply ingrained in the hearts of the Germans; and the Germans are paranoid that when the workers in the production link are wrong, every link passing through the assembly line will be possible.Extraction step by step will inevitably affect product quality.Therefore, the Germans' ideas of improving quality are very direct, that is, using all possible means in the production process, reducing the natural influence of people to the minimum, and cutting everything into machines (or actions like a human -like action) can be simply executed.
In this way, Germany releases thousands of industry standards each year, most of which are adopted by European and around the world, and Germany has also become the birthplace of the world's industrial standardization.In the field of manufacturing, standards determine the market competitiveness, and the right to speak for business, Germany's prosperity is endless and always leading the world. The important reliance behind it is the standardized barrier.
Today, Germany is the first to launch the concept of Industry 4.0 in the world, which has detonated the U.S. Industrial Internet and Japan’s Japan.This value chain plan, France's new industry France, and China ’s competitive strategy for competitive strategies such as 2025 in China, and the standardization leadership of German manufacturing is evident.
Finally, Germany's manufacturing ability has increased day by day.When the industrial revolution of Britain and France in history, the industrialization of Germany started.Germany had to learn the technologies of Britain and France, from imitation to introduction to innovation, Germany's manufacturing was to eventually remove the labels of cottage products, and then used the unique skills created by difficult dormancy forging to shine globally.
Today, the intelligent, network, and digital transformation of global industry are surging, and German manufacturing has begun to feel unable to keep up.For example, in terms of digital management and industrialization of manufacturing, Germany significantly lags behind the United States; in the fifth -generation mobile network (5G), artificial intelligence and IoT construction, Germany has obviously fell behind China.However, Germany has a natural concern and alert consciousness, so recently formulated a national industrial strategy 2030. Among them, the finishing touch is to vigorously promote the docking of manufacturing and virtual figures, and at the same time establish cross -market consortium and build flagship enterprises.Germany's learning traces of the heads of the United States and Chinese manufacturing jumped on paper.
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