The decourse is the annual vocabulary of the 2019 Financial Times.The newspaper columnist Rana Foroohar pointed out in an article published at the end of the year that if the characteristics of the past 40 years are globalization, that is, the economic interoperability of various countries, the focus of the next 40 years is likely to be decoupled.
On January 2, 2020, the economist published an article that was fooled by the US -China Trade Agreement, explaining that the decoupling between China and the United States was underway.Nialel Ferguson, the word Chimerica, has believed that China and the United States have entered the Cold War.
China and the United States are giving globalization, and the global influence of China and the United States has one of the global influence due to decoustration, which leads to one division of globalization, that is, towards China's globalization and the evolution of the United States.
First, globalization is the beginning of two from the confrontation between China and the United States. It should be said that China has already prepared for some fields for China and the United States.The desire to develop economic and trade relations with the United States is no doubt, but China has not stopped from beginning to end in ideology and cultural fields with Western countries such as the United States;Resisting.Western studies are used in the process of modernization in China, and the consciousness of middle schools is deeply rooted.
Although the United States knows that China needs markets and technology in the United States, it has always been a fantasy of peaceful evolution.The logic of the West is that the market economy is inevitable to move towards political democracy. As long as China integrates the economic globalization dominated by the West, it will inevitably promote the transformation of China's economic system towards the West market economy system.Compatible.Today's facts have proved that China's political system has determined the economic system. There is no possibility of China's economic system reform to Western democratic politics. China's market economy is not a replica of the Western market economy.
From this decision, China and the United States cannot be deeply integrated in the economic system. The integration of China and the United States at the level of economic globalization is shallow.In other words, China can build economic globalization with Western countries in terms of tariff barriers and non -tariff barriers, but China cannot promote marketization to the extent that it changes the basic economic system.The fusion of shallow levels is acceptable, and the deep rules fusion is unacceptable.
China will not accept economic globalization similar to the political system similar to competitive neutral or labor standards.What explains this problem is that the China -US bilateral investment agreement and the China -Europe bilateral investment agreement have not been reached. One of the two agreements can stop the negotiations of these two agreements. It is inevitable that China and the United States participated in the globalization separation of China and the United States.
China wants to participate in the formulation of international rules
Second, globalization is the two starting from China and the United States to lead the international economic rules.In the past, international economic rules were formulated by the United States or Europe, and the United States is not willing to let China formulate international rules.Former US President Barack Obama could not let China write global economic rules, making many Chinese indignation.Lee Kuan Yew's view of Li Guangyao in the book of the world said: Balanced global forces are changing. In the next 20 to 30 years, China will hopes to sit up with a strong country.
Li Guangyao explained why China's view of international rules is changing.Graham Allison is destined to fight: Can China and the United States avoid the trap of Xunxida?(Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap) The book disclosed: Martin Dempse, former chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, said: What confuses me when I talk to the Chinese people.When international standards or behavioral standards, they will inevitably point out that these rules are made when they are absent from the world stage.Does this mean that China should not accept the international rules that China is absent?
China not only questioned the current international rules, but also to participate in the formulation of international rules.The famous Chinese diplomat Sha Zukang said that China must be able to actively participate in the formulation of international rules.The People's Daily also called on strengthening China's right to speak in the formulation of international rules.Chinese President Xi Jinping is more clear: to improve my country's institutional discourse rights in global economic governance.The institutional saying right in global economic governance is concentrated in the influence of a country on international economic rules and international economic organizations.
In the context of the world ’s significance of governance in China, the Chinese government will no longer accept the rules designed by the United States in the past, as the Chinese government will not accept structural changes required by the US government.Views, Beijing's Duke News Network said on September 25, 2019, saying that any international agreement can be violated.This is because the agreement within a country is notarized by the state government, while the international contract does not have notarized supervisors. The United Nations and international courts have no enforcement organizations. Today, this world can only be a tool for power.Is this said, why should China accept the international rules designed by the United States after being strong?
Third, the globalization starts from the decoupling of the two parts of China and the United States.From the perspective of the United States, Chinese technology companies such as Facebook and Google have entered China, which is decoupling with the United States.David Shambaugh, a well -known American expert in the United States, believes that the true intention of Made in China 2025 is to eventually replace Western technology with Chinese technology.From the perspective of the West, there are two Internet in the world, China's Internet and non -China Internet.The firewall and strict review system are decoupled from the world of China and the information world.
The US cutting Huawei supply chain is to decompose with China.The Financial Times reported that the Chinese government has issued instructions that government agencies must replace 20 million to 30 million pieces of foreign hardware. Large -scale replacement starts in 2020. The target is to replace 30%in 2020, replace 50%in 2021, replace the remaining in 2022 to replace the remaining remaining20%, so the policy is nicknamed 3-5-2.The Chinese government's move is decoupled from the United States.
On December 1, 2019, China ’s China Evaluation Agency published an article entitled that China’ s foreign trade must be opened for another way. It is suggested that China must consider taking a different approach and take decisive measures to change China's trade direction as a world trade country.rely.
In fact, China ’s implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative and the creation of the AII investment banks are exploring China -dominated economic globalization. China provides a global governance model for the construction of a community of human destiny.Falling into the dilemma of the selection.
(The author is a professor of economics at Shanghai Normal University in China)
