The outbreak of the 2019 COVID-19) has brought huge disasters to the entire human beings, which not only causes serious harm to the lives and health of the people, but also greatly interferes with normal economic activities and personnel in China, East Asia, and even the world.The largest black swan in recent years.
The sudden outbreak of this epidemic not only tested the crisis management of China and the world around the world, but also caused the problem of decouplery problems in China and other countries (mainly with the United States and other Western countries such as the United States) in recent years, and immediately placed on the real level.
Trade war, new crown epidemic and decoupling problem
After the US President Trump came to power, the two largest economies in the United States and China gradually entered a state of trade, and in 2018 and 2019, it was hot.In addition, the United States and China are still in the intensified scientific and technological warfare.The United States has accused Chinese high -tech enterprises using unfair competition methods and threatening national security, to pressure multinational companies such as sanctions on Chinese technology companies, forcing Chinese companies to rely on independent research and development and innovation.
In the situation of trade war and scientific and technological warfare, many people worry that the close connection between China and the United States will be greatly affected by the close connection between China and the United States, and may even enter the state of quasi -war between the two countries.However, some people believe that the mutual dependence between China and the United States has reached an inseparable state, and even if it is partially decoupled, it is unimaginable.
From the current perspective, whether it is a trade war or a scientific and technological war, it has not yet caused decoupling between China and the United States.The trade war itself was alleviated because of the first -stage trade agreement between China and the United States, but the shadow of the decoupling problem did not completely disappear.On the one hand, the conflict and competition between China and the United States in the field of science and technology are intensifying. On the other hand, the contradiction between the two countries in the field of geographical strategies and the dominance of international affairs is also deepening.These factors make the preliminary trading agreement very fragile.
More seriously, the outbreak of the current epidemic has further hindered the economic and social connections of China and the United States and other parts of the world.Regardless of the subjective willingness of some countries, because of the impact of the epidemic, they will temporarily reduce their exchanges and connections with China.China's domestic economic activities and foreign economic and trade exchanges have slowed significantly, and international exchange activities have also been greatly affected.In other words, the epidemic suddenly entered the state of decourse with the outside world.
Stress test in extreme circumstances
The large -scale outbreak of the epidemic has caused the Chinese government to declare the state of war, that is, a political, economic and social management system in an extreme crisis.In this war state, the domestic market economy system and frequent foreign economic activities that the Chinese are accustomed to are likely to occur temporarily in this extreme situation.The spread of the epidemic and China's crisis management model may lead to some economic decoupling of China and the outside world, as well as strict economic and social control within China.
In the extreme situation of this epidemic, China is facing a stress test in a harsh state of decoupling.Since China has rarely postponed the release of trade data in January 2020, it is generally expected that China's foreign import and exports have been greatly affected by the crown disease.The number of people will decline after the Spring Festival.From this perspective, decoupling with the outside world is really active, although this is not China's subjective willingness.
The rare decoupling phenomenon in this crisis response constitutes a pressure test of the Chinese economy. According to Chinese leaders, it is a big test for governance capabilities.The 40 years of reform and opening up has gradually opened the door and the economy integrates into the world market.However, this dependence also brings vulnerability and sensitivity, which is particularly prominent in the Sino -US trade war and scientific and technological warfare.
As a major manufacturing country, China has caused the assembly production line of key components and software for key components and software for the United States to fall into trouble.The lesson of the trade war and the scientific and technological war is that although the global industrial chain only requires that each country is required to focus on the industrial chain with a relatively advantageous advantage, because Western countries such as China and the United States are in ideology, geopolitics, and strategic differences in the strategy of great powers, soChina must consider the way of survival in the state of extreme economic decoupling.
In other words, while being continuously incorporated into the world economic system, a country like China must also maintain its ability to rectify, independent innovation, and research and development to cope with the decoustal state.
Although China has implemented reform and opening up and a market economy, the policy orientation of self -reliance has always been one of the basic credo of the Communist Party of China, which is reflected in all aspects of China's energy, agriculture, technology and other aspects.On the international stage, economic mutual dependence relationships are often regarded as political leverage for impressing pressure on other countries.
This became increasingly obvious after the continuous acceleration of economic globalization in the 20th century. In the 1970s, US international relations scholar Robert Keohane and Joseph Middot;Power and InterDependence: World Politics in Transition) has a key exposition.In order to avoid being passive in the contest of large powers, some countries choose to self -sufficient and independent research and development in the semi -closed state. Although they have sacrificed efficiency, they have improved national security and sovereignty.
From the perspective of China, it is important to have a national ability that has a national capabilities that pass stress testing.This is not only the capital and strength of negotiations and contests among great powers, but also the prerequisite for China's sustainable development and rise.If China can eventually pass the decourse test brought by the crown disease epidemic in 2020, it not only means that the national governance capabilities have a new level, but also in the future stage of Sino -US trade negotiations and games in the future.
Conversely, if China cannot successfully pass this big test, it means that China is still in a very fragile and highly dependent position in the global economy, and it is still in the unfavorable position of other countries in the economic field.
(The author is the National University of Singapore, Assistant Director and Senior Researcher of the East Asia Research Institute)
