Economic Daily News
The new crown pneumonia is aggressive. The Taiwan Executive Yuan recently made a launch of 60 billion yuan a year. The bailout is founded by the creation industry. After the epidemic is stable, it will also sacrifice 2 billion yuan to revitalize the voucher and encourage consumption.When there is no major epidemic prevention break in Taiwan, the government can prepare for the aggressive stones as early as possible, which can be said to have a lot of merits.However, many public health experts have expected that the new crown virus may be influenza. In the future, it will coexist with human society for a long time. In order to respond to more unknown black swans in the future, the government must immediately build a more macro and flexible vision to build a more macro and elastic field of vision.Symbiosis countermeasures.
Looking back at SARS 17 years ago, the starting case appeared in Guangdong in November 2002. Since then, viruses quickly causing 8,096 cases in 37 countries through the global dense sea, land and air network.At that time, Taiwan could not be spared. Since the first case appeared in March 2003, it has exceeded 600 cumulative cases in just four months. Taiwan was also included in the infected area by WHO.Essence
During SARS's raging, Taiwan's folk consumption shrinks, and even enterprise investment is quite conservative, which has accumulated economic negative growth in the second quarter of the year.When the most pessimistic and the epidemic is still invisible, the Economic Construction Association (predecessor of the National Development Council) also estimates that SARS will reach 10 billion yuan in Taiwan's economic impact.Fortunately, this unexpected guest retired at the high temperature of the year, and the Taiwan economy was also lucky to obtain a V -type rebound in the third and 4th quarters.
The situation of SARS is the case, and the end of the new crown pneumonia today is still difficult to know.The main reason is that although SARS and new coronary pneumonia are also crown viruses, the birthplace, popularity, animal hosts, and infectiousness and mortality rates are different.The rapid recovery of Taiwan's economy did not mean that this year was so lucky.Not to mention, many public health experts have expected that the limited coronary virus known to humans will also flu. It will coexist with human society for a long time.
In an era when the Black Swan frequency is still around, when the government thinks about countermeasures, it is necessary to have a broad and elastic field of vision to avoid only headache and foot pain.We must use the view of the black swan effect and anti -fragile author Nassim Nicholas Taleb: things that cannot be predictable, in everything that exists in the world, thus forms the vulnerability of the world.Since the black swan incident is unavoidable, we must strive to reduce losses through anti -fragility, and even gain benefits by reverse fragility.
What is anti -fragile?Anti -fragility does not mean pursuit of strong pursuit, but a mentality that is willing to coexist with uncertainty, showing flexibility and elasticity everywhere.Tarebe believes that this world is best like a cat, not a washing machine to survive better.What cats commended are a flexible and elastic organism. Although the washing machine is powerful, the composition of the mechanical body often uses the longer, the easier it is to evolve from a small loop to a serial error, and the system crashes.
To apply anti -fragile thinking on the economic decision to deal with the black swan incident, we must first raise the field of vision, not only the perspective of industrial relief, let alone, the epidemic is stable, and the delayed consumption will naturally explode.The government planned a lot of 2 billion yuan to revitalize the voucher?
What the government should work hard is to increase the elasticity and tolerance of the industry.For example, during the epidemic prevention period, many industry players took a wave of house business opportunities under the aid of the Internet.Intersection
Another of the lack of elasticity during the epidemic prevention period is also Taiwan's rigid labor thinking for many years.For example, in order to avoid clustering infection, the government allows primary and secondary school students to extend the winter vacation. Parents can ask for the longest 14 days of epidemic prevention and take care of vacation.The government has a good intention, but in practice, many double -paying families can only send their children to the An Qin class without helper, and they have to worry about whether the child will get sick in a more craving space.In fact, for the vast number of dual -paying families, they are not looking for a long -term care fake, but the elasticity of the decree to provide changes in working hours and the work place of work.If the government is willing to loosen the decree and create the atmosphere at this moment, it is the really helping workers.
Anti -disease may be a long -term battle, but we cannot do nothing. The government, enterprises, and owners can play creativity and create opportunities from long -term resistance.
