The World Health Organization recently said that the 2019 coronary virus disease has not yet become global epidemic, but the consequences of crown diseases have shown signs of the world that the risk of virus proliferation in the world still exists.As a world factory, China has been in a half -stop state because of the needs of epidemic prevention, which has gradually emerged for the crackdown on the global industrial chain.China's difficult balance between epidemic prevention and economic protection, maybe it is also a challenge that countries must face in the short term.In addition to improving epidemic prevention measures, countries must also pay attention to the mid -to -long economic impact of epidemic.
According to reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked local officials to avoid excessive epidemic prevention measures and threaten economic development.Many large Chinese cities including Wuhan have adopted a city or semi -military control to strictly control the flow of people, which seriously affects daily life and economic production activities.China resumed work on February 10 after the Spring Festival holiday, but the operating rate of the enterprise and the rework rate of personnel fell sharply.Beijing and Shanghai have stopped long -distance bus services, making it difficult for migrant workers to enter the city.In addition, some places have forced foreigners to be isolated for 14 days.
Compared with companies that can arrange employees at home, factories that need workers to work in work face greater challenges.According to Chongqing, after a factory resume work, it was forced to close the factory for finding a case of crown disease.The impact of the epidemic on the economy has been manifested in data. Due to the suspension of the factory, China's energy consumption has declined significantly.Some analysts said that if the epidemic continues to affect factory production until March, China's industrial energy consumption this year will decrease by 1.5%, which is equivalent to the annual usage of Chile.Based on this, China's economic growth this year may fall from 5.8%of the original estimate to 4.2%.
The impact on the global economy is obviously not underestimated.China is now the second largest economy in the world. Based on the price of purchasing power, it accounts for about 19.7%of the world's GDP.Chinese tourists spend $ 250 billion in global consumption every year, and now they are banned from China.This is bound to be a heavy blow to the world's tourism industry and related industries such as aviation, hotels, diet, transportation, tourism.In addition, China is a world factory, which is deeply integrated into the global industrial chain. Therefore, not only the Chinese economy, but also the Chinese economy, but also seriously affects the economy of various countries.
The world -renowned brands such as Apple mobile phones in the United States, Nissan Motors in Japan, and Hyundai in South Korea have felt the problems in the supply chain.Because Taiwan Hon Hai Group, which has a large number of production lines on the mainland, cannot start construction on time, the supply of Apple mobile phones has begun to have uncertainty.Nissan and Hyundai have also stopped some domestic plant production activities, because parts and components from China are out of stock.These are just examples of well -known brands. There are also many large and small, all kinds of supply chain of living and production supplies, I am afraid that they must also face similar problems.
China currently produces one -third of the global chemical raw materials, half of mobile phones and televisions such as LCD displays, and two -thirds of the artificial fibers of various types of textile raw materials.It is not difficult to imagine that the production activities of these industries around the world will be difficult to continue because China's production capacity is in a half -stop state.Some American experts warned that more than half of the daily drugs of the United States were imported from China.If China's production and exports cannot be responded to normal in the short term, the US medical system may be in a crisis without medicine.
The global industrial chain exposed by the crown disease epidemic may force countries around the world to review the status quo of excessive dependence on Chinese manufacturing.Previously, due to the Sino -US trade war, some manufacturers have evacuated some production lines in order to avoid US tariffs.The impact of the crown disease epidemic on the global industrial chain may accelerate this trend. At least from the perspective of avoiding risks, the supply of diversification in the long run is a more rational choice.How this potential change will affect the global layout of the Chinese economy and even large enterprises, and it is difficult to evaluate in the short term, but the possibility of the long term cannot be ruled out.
The Singapore government has predicted the annual economic growth rate from 0.5%to 2.5%due to the crown disease epidemic situation to -0.5%to 1.5%.This is probably the epitome of this year's global economy.Therefore, the fiscal budget announced today, while ensuring that the Singapore economy has passed the short -term difficulty, must also focus on the mid -to -long -term significance of the epidemic to the global economy and industrial chain.
