Source: Bloomberg
Although the Chinese financial regulatory authorities have made various efforts for the spread of small and medium -sized banks and curbing regional risks, the uncertainty of the new crown pneumonia's epidemic has caused the uncertainty of the year of preventing and controlling financial risks.Extreme pressure test.
In the first half of 2019, the People's Bank of China conducted a pressure test of 30 large and medium -sized commercial banks. In a severe impact situation, it was assuming that GDP increased by 4.15%, and 17 of the 30 large and medium -sized banks did not pass the test.With the spread of the new coronary virus epidemic, the large -scale stagnation of production and operation activities in China, and the negative impact of economic growth to the bank's credit demand and asset quality, which may cause this extreme situation to approach reality.
The Chinese banking system with total assets exceeding 28 trillion yuan has felt pressure due to economic growth to the slowest level in 30 years, including non -performing loan balances to reach a historical high, narrow interest margin, and insufficient capital.Last year, the Bianlian Bank was taken over, and the introduction of strategic investors from Jinzhou Bank and Hengfeng Bank showed that some financial institutions had to rely on external assistance to maintain survival.In the report, S & P pointed out that this epidemic is unprecedented in history in China, and the toughness of the banking system is facing severe tests.
The pressure faced by the banking industry is definitely increasing. You Chun said in the interview that the researcher at the Bank of China Bank Research Center of the National Finance and Development Laboratory said that the most economical SMEs are affected by the epidemic.Risks will cause banks issued by banks to be under pressure that is not yet on, and banks' non -performing loans will rise.
According to S & P estimation, if the emergency situation of public health lasts for a long time, based on the relationship between GDP and non -performing loans, the non -performing loan ratio of the banking industry may rise to more than 6%, and the coverage rate will drop from 188%to 55%; ifThe bank's total amount of new bad accounts will be applied, and the total amount of non -performing loans may be as high as 5.6 trillion yuan.
Zhou Liang, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at a press conference last Friday that objectively speaking, the epidemic will have a certain impact on some small and micro enterprises.Large, adverse rates may rise.
According to data from the CBRC, the balance of non -performing loans of commercial banks at the end of the third quarter of last year was 2.37 trillion yuan, which was the highest since it was recorded.
Hubei influence
Moody's analyst Sonny HSU et al. In a report last week, the business concentrated in banks in Hubei Province and its provincial capital Wuhan. It is expected that the outbreak has the largest increase in loans.
The 2019 Hubei Financial Operation Report released by the Central Bank of China Wuhan Branch showed that as of the end of 2018, the balance of local and foreign currency loans in the province was 4.6 trillion yuan, of which the balance of five major bank loans was 2.6 trillion yuan, followed by local small rural financial institutions.At the end of 2018, the non -performing loan rate of banking industry was 1.5%, which was slightly lower than the national average.
Zhang Shuai Shuai, a banking analyst of CICC, said that the epidemic does have an impact on the entity. At present, it is unclear how many companies will have liquidity problems, especially the epidemic area.He also pointed out that small and micro enterprises may encounter cash flow problems due to postponed construction and bank risk appetite, and the continuous length of the epidemic and liquidity support will also affect the level of non -performing assets.
Growth expectation is low
With the spread of the epidemic, economists successively lowered their growth forecast.Macquarie is expected to fall sharply to 4%in the first quarter of this year.UBS estimates that if the epidemic will be controlled before March, the GDP will increase by about 3.8%in the first quarter, 5.4%throughout the year; if the epidemic spreads until the second quarter, it is expected that GDP will fall to 5%.
In a survey of nearly a thousand companies, 30%of SMEs stated that due to the impact of the epidemic, they expect their income this year to decrease by more than 50%.A survey conducted by a professor including Zhu Wuxiang, including Tsinghua University, showed that 85%of companies said that the current cash of the company cannot maintain the operation of the enterprise for more than three months.
In order to support the financing needs of enterprises under the prevention and control of the epidemic, many commercial banks in China have announced that the loan interest rate of relevant enterprises has been reduced by 0.5 percentage points under the current interest rate.Pan Gongsheng, deputy governor of the central bank, said that the central bank provided 300 billion yuan of special re -loan funds, and required commercial banks to issue preferential interest rate loans to key enterprises such as key medical supplies and living materials for the prevention and control of production epidemic, and the interest rate should not be higher than 3.15%.But for the banking industry, it is also an objective fact that less than 3.15%of the loan interest rate is difficult to cover liabilities.
Grace Wu, director of the banking industry in Greater China, said that the biggest difference from the 2008 global financial crisis or the outbreak of SARS in 2003 is that the current banking industry lacks sufficient capital to support large credit expansion. In view of the profitability in recent years, it has made profitability in recent years.Continuous decline, Chinese banks do not currently have similar capital supplements.
