Source: Reuters
The peak value of the predictive virus is usually destined to fail, but this is not meaningless to predict.
Now, as the coronary virus epidemic spreads from China, medical, policies and economic experts around the world are trying to predict the peak of the virus.They are drawing the epidemic curve together, but there are too many vulnerabilities in the warning data, which cannot be reliably predicted when the peak value will be reached, which is the time point for the number of new cases daily.
If someone tells you when to reach the peak, you don't need to take it seriously, Michael Osterholm, an expert in infectious diseases at the University of Minnesota.
Robin Thompson, an expert in mathematical epidemiography at Oxford University in the United Kingdom, agrees with this.He has published predictions on the outbreak of the epidemic and actively follow -up.
Under such circumstances, there are too many unknown, and it can be said that it is impossible to predict in any accurate way, he said.
In fact, China Daily reported this week that Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, has revised his estimated epidemic on January 28,10-14 days reaches the peak.However, the estimated changes were caused, and the report did not mention the details.
The Chinese authorities said on Thursday that as of 24:00 on February 6th, 73 new deaths were added to the new coronary virus infection.
Economists with Fitch in the evaluation institutions said on Wednesday that the epidemic of new crown pneumonia will affect China's economic growth.However, the scope involved in the possible situation is quite extensive.
If the epidemic quickly reaches its peak and began to be controlled within the next two weeks, the panic fades quickly, and the official control will be lifted rapidly.
Conversely, if the epidemic is not well controlled in the second season, economic growth may decline sharply.
However, even if these predictions seem to be ambiguous, or they are completely unattractive, this prediction process is still indispensable.
Modeling spell
From decision makers, hospital builders, to airline dispatchers, for everyone, the establishment of a model to calculate the epidemic and add possible interventional measures to practice predictive models is extremely important for strategic planning.
The basic elements of infectious disease models may include diagnosis numbers, the length of the time, the frequency of travel or interpersonal contact, the communication power, and the various possible epidemic control measures such as isolation or screening.
For example, Thompson's model is mainly studying that when a new crown virus infection enters a country outside China, the continuous communication potential risk is caused.
This model has several important prerequisite settings, including similar cases of overseas migration as domestic cases, and the spread of new crown viruses is similar to SARS.Then, the model predicts the possibility of continuous persons based on various monitoring levels-from low monitoring or low-efficiency monitoring to high monitoring.
This emphasizes the importance of monitoring efforts from all over the world to ensure that the sustainable epidemic will not become a major global infectious disease, THOMPSON explained.
As public health officials, these are the cases we are eager to understand. Joe Bresee, an epidemiologist at the United States Federal Disease Control and Prevention Center (CDC), and deputy head of the epidemic control.
Mike Tildesley, the University of Warwick University, has developed a mathematical model to simulate the spread of viruses.He said that one of his guidelines is that all models are wrong, but some are useful.
The potential effect of a model finally depends on what the institution that uses it wants to do.
If you want to alleviate the impact of a large -scale epidemic, it is important to not only depend on the average time that it may be required to reach the peak value, but also to see the worst situation, he said.
