The 2019 new coronary virus (2019-NCOV) pneumonia, which was outlined in Wuhan, China. From the end of last year to early February this year, it has quickly spread in mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, as well as some countries and regions in the world, causing tens of thousands of people to be infected and died.The number of people has continued to rise, becoming the most serious incident in the public health sector since 2020.
China launched the highest level of response on January 20, and once again carried out national mobilization measures since the SARS epidemic in 2003; on the other hand, as the most important public product in the field of health and health, the World Health Organization (World Health Organization (World Health Organization (WHO) quickly starts the emergency response mechanism.The Director -General of the WHO Tan Desai announced on January 30 at the Geneva headquarters that the new crown virus epidemic in China has constituted an internationally concerned public health incident (PHEIC), which is valid for three months.
On February 5th, the WHO launched a strategic preparation and response plan for responding to the new crown virus epidemic, and took out 9 million US dollars from its emergency financial reserves to help fight against the epidemic.Strengthen international coordination and response capabilities.
This new coronal virus is the new coronary virus strain that has never been found in the human body before.Although people in the medical community work to fight the virus day and night, as of February 5, WHO acknowledged that there have been no proven drugs that have been proven to treat the new crown virus.Therefore, in the context of such a high risk and still uncertainty, whether it is China, especially in the birthplace of the epidemic, especially in Wuhan, Hubei, or countries and regions of the world and other countries and regions of the world.Excessive response is understandable.
Under the strictest national prevention and control measures, I believe that China, which has the strongest mobilization capabilities in the world, will win the victory of this epidemic struggle in the first half of this year.
The black swan incident has its inevitability
This article needs to be discussed that the emergencies similar to the new crown virus, or the black swan incident in a sense, are not the first time in human history.In other words, although the Black Swan incident has its sudden or unexpectedness and has a significant impact, as there must be inevitable behind any accidents, there is no purely accidentality that is not separated from inevitable.
Therefore, what people need to reflect is that although we live in this uncertain world, including from the financial crisis to a major epidemic situation, we can truly achieve accurate warning and take a timely response measures through an effective response mechanism to maximize the maximum extentReducing losses is indeed a proposition of ultra -high difficulty in the real world.
However, whether it is recognized as the Nobel Prize winner of the Asian financial crisis, Crugman, which is recognized as a successful prediction of the Asian financial crisis, or the eight doctors who have disclosed the new crown virus earlier this time, all show the future or the future or the future or the future or the future or the future orSome major early warning capabilities that are occurring a major uncertain event.
It can be said that this is a very important type of national and global governance, especially when dealing with various crises.For the country and society, what needs to be done is: how to protect people keen perception and the enthusiasm of risk warning on the basis of effective identification of risk warning, and through an effective decision -making mechanismEarly early warning response ability.
First of all, the country must always maintain the keen intuition of risks, and establish a sound and forward -looking expected management mechanism.Human beings are the unity of powerful and weak.On the whole, human beings have the ability to continuously improve their natural ability; but as far as the single line is the main body, even individuals who have the ability to configure no matter how strong configuration are as weak or helpless when facing risks and crises alone.
The country with a sound governance system and corresponding governance capabilities, especially, is that its strength is that it can integrate domestic and foreign resources for daily production and services, but also to effectively connect the needs of micro -individuals when encountering emergencies.And provide corresponding assistance.For decision makers in the real world, insufficient or over -confidence is often normalized.The former appears from time to time in developing countries, and the latter will happen to even a superpower like the United States.
In terms of excessive self -confidence, as early as 2006 before the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) accurately identified many risk factors that caused the outbreak of the financial crisis in an internal supervision report, but too confidentlySEC did not use regulatory power to guide financial institutions to reduce risks.Even the then US President Bush asked about economists, investment bankers and market analysts after the closure of Bear Stearns in 2008, and let them publish their judgment on the stability of the US economy and financial system.Among the self -confident American elites, most of them are still guaranteed to the president that the US economic and financial system is strong and flexible enough to be too worried.
In January 2011, the US Financial Crisis Investigation Commission issued a 576 -page survey report, arguing that the financial crisis of the century was signs and could have been avoided.The reason why tragedy happened was because these signs were ignored, or at least it did not attract attention.The federal government's supervision and the dangerous operation of Wall Street financial institutions are the main cause of the financial crisis.It can be seen that even if the United States, the United States, must always maintain a sense of risk and have a forward -looking expected management mechanism, not to mention other countries.
Secondly, the widespread activation of micro -subject risks and awareness of prevention is an important reliance of hedging systemic risks.Taking the financial crisis as an example, its important feature is the uncertainty of the outbreak time, the high sensitivity of the conduction mechanism, and the huge destructiveness of the economic system, which causes great panic to the whole society.Therefore, in terms of national work, whether it is close attention to the security margin of systemic financial institutions, the effective management and timely disclosure of financial information, the coordination of the monitoring system, and even the rapid response to the rapid response of financial eventsWait, obviously need long -term experience to accumulate continuous enhanced technical guarantees.
To achieve effective response after early warning and crisis, it is urgent to pay attention to the extensive activation and cultivation of the awareness of the micro -subject risk and awareness of prevention.In a sense, this is also an important foothold for expected management.The so -called master is in the folk, refers to anyone who has the best information and the most powerful government, and do not try to prove that it is smarter and powerful than all micro individuals.
Finally, it is very important to strengthen the early warning emergency response mechanism for the crisis, but the truly effective stability mechanism is to reduce the probability of the outbreak of the black swan incident with rational and endogenous development methods and awe of natural ecology.
In a sense, many complex issues faced in the global economy, society, environment, and hygiene areas today are the corresponding expressions that humans have existing survival and development models, but also the way human society fails to achieve survival and development.The marginal costs paid to the higher civilization state transformation.In the middle and long term, human beings must get out of the fog of growth, bid farewell to the endless plundering of nature and the biological world, eliminate the narrowing psychology of neighbors, and even enhance doomsday thinking education when necessary.The world of illness is involved.
(The author is Shanghai University of Foreign Languages, China, Dean of the School of International Finance and Trade, professor of economics)
