Author: He Yafei
If the 2008 financial crisis represents the first year of the world economic order entered, then 2020 will be the first year of the world's power balance.The game of various forces is more intense, the situation is even more turbulent, the challenges are more severe, and the global governance system will bear a more severe test.There are four challenges that are more prominent:
First, the world economy is not optimistic, and downward pressure continues to increase.Compared with 2019, the situation of international trade tensions in 2020 has continued to increase.Many experts expect that the assets and stock market bubbles will be broken in 2020, and the probability of global economic recession is greater.China has suffered a new crown pneumonia epidemic, and is conducting an unprecedented epidemic prevention and control war. In the short term, it has added new variables to the Chinese economy and the world economy.
Since 2008, the United States, Europe, Japan and other developed economies have adopted currency loose, low interest rates, and even negative interest rate currency policies. The marginal effects have decreased or even disappeared. They have suffered from lack of alternative measures and have to continue to drink doves to quench their thirst.In this case, the capital market is like a bowl of birds, especially some developing countries that have suffered from external funds to the out of control. Financial risks are no less than before 2008.
In 2020, China ’s financial opening is open. With the deepening of the Chinese economy and the world economy, foreign capital enters the Chinese bond market, stock market, banking, insurance, and asset management business, plus new international cooperation such as the Belt and Road Initiative, overseasThe RMB fund pool continues to expand, the impact of international funds and changes in exchange rates on Chinese finance will increase, testing the toughness of China's financial industry and the pace of RMB internationalization.
Second, the gap between the rich and the poor in the United States and the poor and the inequality continued to expand. The government and mainstream ideology were beyond -handed. It could not objectively analyze and explain it, nor resolved.Regardless of whether it is rising in Treasury bonds or extremely loose currencies, the western macroeconomic policy is crowded.The people are dissatisfied and grievances have accumulated for a long time, and the capitalist systems and systemic crises are worsened.
In 2020, major challenges such as the United States election, Britain, and internal division of the European Union came.These major variables deepen the institutional crisis of western powers, further tear up the social structure, and domestic politics has become more extreme.At the same time, the spillover effect of the crisis is prominent, and strives to pass on the crisis. The foreign policy is extremely tough and the military adventure has increased. The current international order and global governance system respond to climate change, energy security, cybersecurity, geopolitical conflict risks and other challenges.
Globalization will not be reversed, but the globalization and anti -globalization game will continue to heat up. The expansion of the governance of deficit has made the rules -based governance system. The reorganization of international rules will become one of the focus of competition in large powers.
Third, the stability of international strategy has been severely weakened, making the security situation of Europe, Asia -Pacific, and the Middle East more severe, and the relationship between great powers is becoming more complex and sensitive.
Sino -US relations have entered a strategic competition period. In 2020, the year of the United States election, election politics will significantly increase the uncertainty of the relationship between the two countries that are already very complicated.
The United States and Russia's squeezing and reflection around the strategic space have deepened the contradictions on issues such as Ukraine, Syria, and Iran, and implemented external sanctions on the implementation of the Beixi-2 natural gas pipeline project and the Russian Turkish stream project.The US -Russian game is increasingly acute and cannot rule out the possibility of local conflicts.
The United States withdrew from the Treaty Treaty in 2019 and resumed the R & D test of land -based medium -range missiles, and announced that such missiles were re -deployed in Europe and Asia -Pacific; at the same time, the United States claimed that it would withdraw from weapons trade treaties, the US and Russia open sky treaties, and may never be approved to be completely banned.Test treaties, the pace of modernization and miniaturization of nuclear weapons, accelerated the pace of miniaturization, and the nuclear military competition or soil is rearranged.
In the Middle East, the United States and Ichicva almost triggered military conflicts, and contradictions were difficult to avoid, and the next step towards the decisive impact on the regional situation.Palestine's conflict revolves around Jerusalem and the United Nations has been impacted by the principle of land change in land, and it becomes fierce.
Fourth, the global new scientific and technological revolution has continued to accelerate, and large powers have increased investment in high -tech fields, affecting human economic activities, lifestyle, and even national competition models.
The new industrial revolution has been in the ascendant, a variety of major disruptive technologies have emerged, the transformation of scientific and technological achievements has accelerated significantly, and the forms of industrial organizations and industrial chains are more monopoly.Major countries have increased new technological investment research and development, and scientific and technological capabilities have become important indicators to measure the comprehensive strength of one country.Science and technology blockade and restraint are an important means for the competition between the United States as a big country, which directly affects the relationship between the great power and the development of the world economy.
The importance of the technological revolution in the new globalization era is prominent, and scientific and technological capabilities have become one of the important indicators to measure national comprehensive strength.In 2020, the United States may continue to be decoupled with China technology, but China has the accumulation of technical accumulation of the global production chain component and has a post -development advantage. Therefore, the development momentum of science and technology is unstoppable, and it may also make breakthroughs in some areas.
The promotion or destruction of the world economy will be doubled with many advanced technology breakthroughs and mutual combination, and it is urgent to formulate new rules and new systems that can be generally accepted by all parties.Strengthen network management and coordination to prevent the network from becoming a new war space; strengthen the international community cooperation in response to non -traditional security threats such as infectious diseases; establish international cooperation consensus to prevent outer space from militaryization and weapons;Corresponding to the international cooperation of climate change based on the agreement is a major challenge facing the international community.
In short, in the early stage of the international political and economic situation in 2020, the change of a hundred years of changes is normal.We must have sufficient preparations for the dangers and opportunities contained in the Great Change. We must have a sober understanding of the changing world and the increasingly developed China, adhere to the development strategy and foreign strategy that meets the actual situation of China and meet the world trend, and persistThe general direction of reform and opening up and economic development, actively promote innovation, open development, and tolerant development, and make efforts to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.(The author is the former deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, senior researcher of the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, and director of the Global Governance Research Center)
