Because economic predictions have remained unchanged over the past 10 years, traditional January economic prediction games are almost worthy of participation.In 2020, any year since the financial crisis, the global economy is more likely to continue to grow, interest rates will continue to maintain the minimum level, and the stock market will continue to rise.
Therefore, instead of predicting the most likely situation (this situation is already very obvious), it is better to think about the unlikely situation that might change this benign status.I think there are 10 risk factors that may cause economic and financial trouble in 2020.This is not a prediction: continuous global expansion is more likely to be more likely to have any combinations of the above setbacks.And they are not accidental, because the accident is unpredictable according to the definition.On the contrary, they belong to the unknown known. According to my point of view, the risk sort below from the lowest to the highest.
The most insignificant thing is that many economists predict the risks every year: the global economic recession caused by the United States or China.The economic recession is inevitable, but the chance of recession in 2020 is lower than any year in the previous 10 years.Although the US -China trade war has combined global investment and manufacturing, the macroeconomic policies of the two countries have increased housing, services and public expenses.This year, the world economy will continue to benefit from the efforts of US interest rate cuts last year and China to support about 6%of economic growth.Without a new strong impact factor, the possibility of economic recession in 2020 is extremely low.
Similarly, the risk of rising interest rates can also be ignored.Many investors and entrepreneurs are worried that today's low interest rate environment will soon end, at least the situation in the United States will be the case.This year's inflation and long -term interest rates are likely to rise, but the central bank is almost impossible to tighten monetary policy.The Fed will lead this process, and it will not increase interest rates in the annual election.
In Europe, Brexit not only did not trigger the popularity of European doubt theory, but instead prevented many countries from making efforts in many countries like vaccination.Even the populist leaders of Italy, France, and Germany seem to be discouraged in the face of Brexit. The negotiations of the Brexit trade agreement this year will strengthen the negative emotions of Europeans' Brexit process.However, politics is always full of turmoil, especially in Italy, so the risk of the euro crisis caused by political factors is still low, but it cannot be ignored.
Although the biggest concern to the US -China trade war in 2019 is the weakest part of the world economy is actually Europe.Recently, European economic performance has stabilized, and the policy has also improved significantly, because while the European Central Bank restarted quantitative easing, political emotions have also shifted to oppose fiscal tightening efforts.However, the German economy is still facing a crisis of survival, and the stupid behavior of European politicians has never stopped, and has been cutting fiscal deficit when economic needs financial support.So like last year, the largest macroeconomic risk in 2020 was still European recession.
After that, it was the threat of major energy interruption.Since the United States assassinated the Iranian Holy City Brigade, Cassim Middot; Sulemanni, the financial market has been worried about soaring oil prices and war upgrades.Over the past 50 years, every global recession has been with oil prices, although not every oil price has been with economic recession.If you want to double the year -on -year, the price of oil must be soared to more than $ 110.Although this possibility is not great, it is not impossible to terminate the Persian Gulf shipping by the US -Ichina war. Therefore, oil has caused the risk of economic recession to be medium.
Another medium risk is to strengthen protectionism.The market for the US -China trade war has troubled the market for some time, and bad news has been digested by the market. The first stage of trade agreement shows that this year will not be further upgraded, but several trade risks will still be left, especially for Europe.It is possible to fall into collapse in Brexit negotiations in the UK, or is forced to face Trump's protectionist instincts from Chinese electronic products to German cars.
However, Trump may be busy confrontation with Iran and the November election this year.At the same time, the British and European trade relations will remain unchanged before December 31.Therefore, compared with 2018 and 2019, global protectionism is even less risky.
In addition, there are two moderate growth risks this year.First, the debt ratio of US companies has been far ahead of the era of financial crisis, soaring to unprecedented levels.But this is not unexpected, because the interest rate has never maintained such a low level in such a long period of time.Although lever bubbles may become a risk at some point in the future, before the interest rate rises, there is no reason for the bubble to be shattered, and there is no reason to shrink.This also explains why corporate leverage in 2020 seems to be a medium threat.
The last medium danger is the collapse of the automotive industry.Last year, global automobile sales plummeted, which caused a devastating blow to the German economy. Germany is by far the largest exporter of automobiles and car manufacturing machinery.Germany production is currently lower than the trough of economic recession in 2009, and the economic recession of the industry is not just a cycle issue.
A perfect storm brought by environmental concerns, social changes, and energy and technology transformation means that the automotive and engineering industry is not only in Germany, but also in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan.The far -reaching degree is comparable to the process of industrialization in the 1980s.However, the severe reduction of demand last year may bring a temporary recovery, and this explains why the automobile and engineering industry should not be so troublesome this year.
In contrast, the technology industry is facing political risks and high risks.Large technology companies can no longer determine the respect of decision makers.Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and Google were once regarded as an innovative force and progressive agent, but now they are regarded as ruthless monopolies who manipulate policies and exploit consumers.These companies have always been the main driving force for the US economy and stock markets, and appeared in the form of supervision, special taxes or spin -offs. The serious political challenges to their business models may lead to the repeat process of Internet bubbles from 2000 to 2002.The liquidation may start this year.
The biggest risk of all risks is derived from the US presidential election.The global market agreed that Trump will win, causing the market to face two potential impacts.The winning Trump may become more protective, good and unpredictable during the second term.And if its opponent is Bernie Middot; Sanders or Elizabeth Middot; Warren, then the four major industries in the US economy MDASH; MDash; medical, finance, technology and energy, will face unprecedented destructive threats.
Given that Trump is destined to make a remark of intimidating investors, some polls may be the Democratic Party at some moment at a moment of the election, and American politics will almost occasionally trigger a round of panic by November 3.
(Author Anatole Kaletsky is the chief economist and co -chairman of Longzhou Scripture, author of Capitalism 4.0: The birth of a new economy (CAPITALISM 4.0: The BIRTH of a New Economy))
A perfect storm brought by environmental concerns, social changes, and energy and technology transformation means that the automotive and engineering industry is not only in Germany, but also in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan.The far -reaching degree is comparable to the process of industrialization in the 1980s.
