Chen Xi: Chinas strategy in the competition between the geopolitical technology

At present, the United States has prescribed the suspension of the trade war, but this is only a temporary off -war war under the risk of economic and impeachment, and it will not solve the fundamental differences between China and the United States.

Let's examine the United States' allegations of Chinese commodity trade deficit and discrimination.In 2018, the US commodity trade deficit of China reached 420 billion US dollars (US perspective) or $ 240 billion (Chinese view), but this is based on the US dollar international settlement currency status, the differences between the China -US industry structure and labor division of labor, components and components to the United States.Exports and other factors; in addition, the United States still has a trade surplus of $ 40 billion to China.

China is not keen to maintain a high trade surplus, and exchange rate floating and low -funded utilization efficiency will cause losses.Instead, China is keen to promote fairness and free trade under the Fragments of the World Trade Organization (WTO).For example, Lami, the former director of the WTO, explained that China has done very well in its long commitment list: reducing the average tax rate to 9.8%(2010), and the opening of foreign capital, including communications, automobiles, and finance,Market (2019), increase the quota of rare earth exports and set up more free trade zones (2019), and government procurement in foreign companies (2019).Trade competition is not the core of Sino -US competition. Although no matter who serves as the US president, trade criticism will occupy news headlines.

The United States' non -trade barriers to China are very fierce.Regarding the allegations of commercial cooperation to steal US intellectual property rights, global companies have taken the initiative to invest in China and obtain super -expected benefits. Chinese companies must maximize the value of transfer technology. This is a fair business agreement.The strategy of independent innovation and transformation is consistent.Even under new laws, the Chinese government does not allow forced foreign investors to implement technical transfer.

The allegations of government support for the development of enterprises, similar to the national support obtained by security projects such as the United States and Europe, this is an international practice.The most direct case on security is the United States rather than Huawei or other Chinese companies monitoring Germany.

In addition, no equipment (including Huawei and Cisco) is perfect, and all stakeholders can cooperate to repair potential unknown loopholes.Regarding the military and civilian dual -use technology, China is indeed the same, but how do you think of a similar role of Boeing and General Electric?

The core battlefield of geopolitical competition

The curtain of the Geography Contest of China and the United States has been opened.Before the US President Trump ruling, American companies were mainly in the upper reaches of the industrial chain, and cooperated with Chinese partners in the lower reaches of the industrial chain.However, even if the decision -making made by investment managers is in line with the usual business principles, decision -making is still political, especially affected by the government applied by the United States in the name of national security or economic patrioticism.

The basic layer of information and communication technology provides products including fiber fiber, 5G networks, and servers. They have longer supply chains and provide high -quality employment.China will show the authorized patented data of central processors (CPUs), dynamic random access to memory (DRAM) and flash memory (NAND Flash). These three types of core components support the calculation, memory and storage functions of the server.

From the Dwente World Patent Index Database Database Database, it can be seen that American companies have a dominant position in the number of authorized patents in the global CPU, DRAM and NAND Flash.Take CPU as an example, international commercial machines (10760), Intel (4785), Amazon (2139), ARM (319), Marvell (244), and AMD (261) ahead, Zhaoxin (62) and Feiteng (9), Huawei (6687) is an exception.(In parental numbers are the number of patents, the same below)

If you only consider patents awarded in the United States and Europe, the United States' leading advantage is even more obvious, and these patents are often considered higher quality.International Business Machinery (10758, 6), Intel (3218, 448), Amazon (2138, 45), ARM (280, 17), Marvell (244, 1), and AMD (257, 47) have greatly ahead(45, 15), Shuguang (0, 0), Zhaoxin (34, 7) and Fei Teng (0, 0), only Huawei (1432, 1092) maintains world competitiveness in high -end patents.Ziguang is a potential giant of China Information and Communication Technology. It has a longer value chain, including the SCU (CPU supplier), Guoxin (DRAM supplier), Yangtze Flash supplier (NAND Flash supplier) and Xinhua III (systemIntegrated supplier) and so on.

A more open market

China expands its defense depth with its attractive domestic market. When it encounters a strong opponent's sudden violent attack, this is an effective military principle.The Chinese market provides as high as 17%to 40%of the annual income, except Amazon.Abandoning the Chinese market will become expensive.Chinese information and communication technology companies also have strong competitiveness, especially in the fields of communication, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.

The United States has chosen to attack China's weak wing, that is, the core component supply chain and its commercial network, which can be held up to the bargaining chips that negotiate with China, so that China pays high political or economic costs.EssenceIn addition, more Chinese companies will be included in the sanctions list, even if the world information and communication technology industry chain will be fragmented, or it will bear the high migration costs brought by leaving China.

At first, China was a little panicked, but now it has recognized the situation.In response, the Chinese government has quickly implemented the domestic market open strategy, promotes the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP), and may even add higher -level global trade agreements, such as the Capital Comprehensive Progress Progress Agreement (CPTPP).Chinese companies have three possible strategies: seeking global mergers and acquisitions, global talents and third -party markets.

Global M & A

For China, a feasible way is to identify and invest in small and medium -sized enterprises or startups with core intellectual property rights, and partial guarantee for the security of the supply chain.

Leading CPU suppliers (including Intel, AMD, ARM, etc.) have 25%to 50%of the top five shareholders (including Pioneer, Berlaide, Daofu, etc.), leaders in DRAM and NAND Flash fields (including Micron, West, WestData, Toshiba Storage, etc.) The sum of the top five shareholders also exceeded 35%.In addition, the U.S. government and its allies will also unite to establish economic and technical defense lines for China, such as the modernization bill through foreign investment risk assessment.

In response, China can encourage venture capital or private capital to identify and invest global small and medium -sized enterprises or startups with hardcore technology, although they will face strict investment review regulations.

Global Talent

Through the development of human capital, China will eventually reverse the situation, but it takes time.

From the academic ranking of Shanghai World University, in the key disciplines of the future information and communication technology revolution in the United States, the number of top 10 universities in the top 10 universities leads China, such as mathematics, physics, chemistry, materials science, etc.leading position.This means that China will cultivate more outstanding communication technology engineers, while the United States may have more chip design and manufacturing, as well as developers in the software field.In the field of traditional disciplines (such as civil engineering, metallurgical engineering, transportation engineering, etc.), the number of leading research institutions between the two countries is flat.

In addition, the United States 'strict control of Chinese students and scholars' visas will also hinder the pace of China's catch -up.In order to attract global talents, Chinese companies and research institutions can try to establish cooperation with more non -American leading agencies, such as Britain, Singapore and Switzerland.

Third -party market

Co -opening third -party markets can broaden the political trust between China and economic partners.

Regional integration can be strengthened through traditional and digital infrastructure construction.No country can bear economic cost alone,And establishing an effective work team, especially in developing countries.

China and the United States are good at hardware and software. They can cooperate in the third -party market bidding projects, such as smart city projects in the Southeast Asia and the Balkans.If the United States refuses to cooperate with China, American allies will quickly find a way to supplement or replace their roles.

At present, it is difficult to predict who will be the winner of future information and communication technology competition.Although China Information and Communication Technology Company occupies an advantage in optical fiber communication and wireless communication, the 6G era (2025 to 2030) pattern is still difficult to predict, because the United States' leading satellite technology and its use of national power.

In response to the threat of US sanctions in China, China can learn Japan, South Korea and Singapore's experience.They have established their own biomedical industry by guiding the distribution of national venture capital, protecting intellectual property rights, and giving overseas students' return to country incentives.China, like them, believes that key technologies cannot be borrowed, but they must be created by itself.

China and the United States are not enemies, but their opponents.No one will obtain an absolute advantage in this long competition.The rise and fall of some countries such as Russia, Singapore, Europe, or Japan depends on whether it is adapted to geopolitical development and finds its own positioning and role in the next generation of information and communication technology revolution.

For many small and medium -sized countries in the decline, they are more concerned about the commitment of large powers for maintaining multilateral systems and cooperation in response to the real challenges of the world, such as digital governance, climate change, eliminating poverty and terrorism, not forced to be forced to be in China and the United StatesChoose between.

(The author is a member of the Academic Committee of the Humanities Exchange Research Center of Peking University. This article has been published in the English Electronics Magazine Thought China (ThinkChina) under the United Zard)