U.S. President Trump is a political adventurer who does not play cards according to common sense, but has to say that Trump has played two dangerous cards. From the results, it is also a good card.
The first is the Iranian card.He not only exited the Obama's main diplomatic achievements MDASH; MDASH; Iran's nuclear multilateral agreement, but also threatened to China and Russia and the European Union.This exacerbates the contradiction between the United States and China and Russia, and also allows the European Union to fire. On the one hand, it appeases Iran to continue to abide by the Iran nuclear agreement, and on the other hand, it is helpless to Trump's retirement behavior.
Trump intensified.On January 3rd, he ordered the killing officer of the Holy City Brigade of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Sulemanni, which caused the contradictions of the United States and Iraq to suddenly intensify. Iran's supreme leader Hamenei claimed to have a strong revenge against the United States.The two military bases launched a rocket.
Although Iran claims that the attack has killed more than 200 people in the United States, the United States said zero casualties.Subsequently, the retaliation and recurrence of the two countries temporarily stopped, and the observer believed that the United States and Ichida had reached a tacit understanding of danger.After all, both countries are unwilling to fall into a long -lasting war, and a war of war is temporarily suspended.
Ironically, when the Battle of the United States and Iraqi started, the windy Iranian military accidentally hit a Ukrainian Boeing passenger plane, and more than 170 people on board were killed.From the technical reasons of the initial defense to a recognition of the military injuries, Iran not only put Iran into embarrassment, but also aroused the anger of the Iranian people. Many people demanded that Iran's supreme leaders from the Passionate anti -US Gogo demanded.
Various storms have highlights the Iranian dilemma under the comparison of the strength of Meiyi, and also reflect the undercurrent of Iran.Many people miss the happiness before the Islamic Revolution. In addition to opposing the United States, the Iranians are full of dissatisfaction with their governments.
The direct consequence of the conflict between the United States and Iran is that Iran also withdrawn from the Iraqi nuclear agreement and does not accept the so -called Trump agreement.Iran's stating that the European Union was in dilemma, which means that the EU -led Iran nuclear agreement went bankrupt.Faced with the retreat of the United States and Iran, European countries still choose to stand on the side of the United States.Their different stances of Meiyi explain the cruelty of international politics and the party of the Western camp.
Trump's conflict provoked in the United States, which caused the U.S. Congress to be nervous. The Democratic House of Representatives led by the Democratic Party has restricted Trump's war resolution on war power on outbound soldiers.Nevertheless, Trump's adventure for Iran has received the expected results and has successfully transferred the American people's attention to the impeachment case.
The Washington Post believes that Trump's support has recovered all the loss, reaching the highest point in almost three years.According to data from the US political review website RealclearPolitics, Trump's average support rate on January 6 reached 45.2%, the highest point since February 2017.
It is very ironic that although the last election Trump and Hillary's showdown was the failure of public opinion, Trump won the election against the trend, but Trump faced a higher public opinion support rate at a critical moment when he faced the impeachment.EssenceTrump has done it. The Iranian card that he involved in the danger has won more support from the American people. It has also enhanced his self -confidence and enhanced his cohesion in the Republican Party.
The second card is the scientific and technological war of the Sino -US trade war.After 22 months of sawing, the US trade war from the United States ended temporarily, and China and the United States signed the first phase of trade agreement on January 15.This agreement is a great result for Trump. After all, he provoked a global trade war, and China is the biggest and strongest opponent.
China and the United States signed the first phase of trade agreement. Although the analysts have a lot of interpretation, the New York Times even believed that the United States has obtained a paper agreement and China has won the final victory.Both countries and global markets are good.After all, China avoids pressure from tariffs from the United States and also helps relieve downward pressure on the economy.Trump can exaggerate China's US $ 200 billion of goods to the United States and declare victory to voters, especially US farmers.
For global, the Sino -US truce war, even temporary truce, has brought optimistic expectations to the global market. Especially the economy of China and the United States as an important trading partner, do not have to undergo heavy pressure to choose a border station between China and the United States.Essence
The signing of the first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States also helps maintain Trump's proud Trump market.As long as the bull market continues for 10 years, Trump can show off his political enemies.
Two good cards are good, but Trump must face impeachment.Trump became the third president in the history of the United States. In the face of two crimes, Trump insisted that he was innocent.
Whether Trump can escape the impeachment depends on the final trial of the Senate.If the Republican Senate does not reflect the water, Trump will be difficult for impeachment.The good news is that Trump's recent public opinion support rate has increased, and the Republican Party is united.In addition, Trump's personal lawyer Juliani emphasized that he would testify in the trial of the Senate, not to testify that Trump had guilty, but to prove that former Vice President and Democratic candidate Biden Corruption.
It is reported that during the trial of the impeachment case this week, the Democratic Party proposed 111 impeachment evidence, but Trump also expanded the lawyer, including 73 -year -old Star, successfully causing Simpson to get rid of his wife's guilty of killing his wife and released innocent release.De Shawitz.In this regard, analysts believe that Trump has been in an impeachment against him in the organizational dream team.It can be seen that Trump did his homework about the impeachment case initiated by the Democratic Party.
However, whether Trump's trouble can be resolved depends on the final result.In any case, Trump shows the political personality that does not play cards in the United States and the world in accordance with common sense.Personality determines destiny?Trump may give a surprising answer.
(The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society, a guest researcher at the Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China)
