Yu Zeyuan: How long can the new crown virus be raised?

Most people did not expect a few days ago that the Spring Festival in the New Year of the Rat will be shrouded in the shadow of the new coronary virus (commonly known as the new coronary virus).

In order to prevent the epidemic from spreading further, from January 23, Wuhan City, Hubei Province and surrounding Ezhou City, Xiantao City, Qianjiang City, Huanggang City, Jingmen City, etc. have announced the suspension of the operation of urban transportation.The roads waiting for the entrance and exit of the road are the sealing city.

In just a few days, Fengcheng measures expanded from Hubei to the surrounding Henan, Anhui, Hunan and other places.Even if it is far away from Hubei, although there is no city, it has closed public gathering places such as theater, temple fair, and attractions.All units and communities are advising people to reduce going out. The streets and alleys are scarce. Without the lively of relatives and friends in the Spring Festival in previous years, in 2003, the SARS epidemic scene was staged by the empty city of Beijing, as if re -staged.

The premium city and strict prevention and control measures not only make the festive atmosphere dignified, but also bring a lot of inconvenience to the people's lives.Although the Spring Festival Gala shows in CCTV and the provinces and cities are still singing, people in reality are praying and blessing peace. Historical celebrities such as Xin Qiji, Huo Qubing, and Kang Youwei have become hot words for New Year's Eve.

However, few people complained that these prevention and control measures were too harsh; on the contrary, the public had more accusations about Wuhan and Hubei Province's failure to strictly control the epidemic in the first time.

These accusations are not unreasonable.For example, at the Hubei Provincial People's Congress held from January 12th to 17th, nearly 700 representatives of the Hubei Provincial People's Congress attended the meeting with the person in charge of the party and government and attended the meeting rarely mentioned that the outsiders of the Wuhan epidemic spreadPowerful prevention and control measures.Moreover, after the Hubei Provincial People's Congress, the number of people in the Wuhan epidemic infected suddenly increased, and the public had reason to suspect that local officials might conceal the real data of the epidemic due to the overall consideration.

In 2003, Yin Jian was not far from the relevant authorities' concealment of the Shasse epidemic. This time in some aspects, the Wuhan epidemic repeatedly repeatedly repeated the prices of the spread of the Shats epidemic.The person in charge of the National Health and Health Commission is obviously difficult to blame, and China's health and epidemic prevention system also needs to be deeply reviewed.

Of course, measures such as Fengcheng seriously affecting the lives of the people are really difficult to decide easily, but now they must strictly prevent the epidemic from spreading with the determination of strong men to break their wrists.From this perspective, Hubei Province and China have adopted more stringent prevention and control measures than responding to the Shas of the Shas, which is not a big problem.

As for when the new crown virus will be raged, some experts have given some inferences.

Gui Xien, a professor and a well -known infectious disease expert in Wuhan University Zhongnan Hospital, believes that the situation is now very severe, and the prevention and control measures are also unprecedented. At present, the new diagnosis patients are more than a day, but it should not take too long from the peak to the decline.The turning rate of the incidence can be calculated in weekly. It is expected that the epidemic in Wuhan City, the 15th (February 8th) of the first month (February 8th), may fall.

Zhang Wenhong, the leader of the expert group of Shanghai Medical treatment, also believes that Wuhan has taken measures to restrict travel, stop buses, and popular science education to prepare the bed and medical forces from all over China.It is foreseeable that within two weeks, all patients who are already onset or are about to be onset will successfully enter the medical site treatment.After two to four weeks of treatment, most patients will be cured.In this case, it is not a dream to end the Wuhan battle within two months.

Experts' inference may not be completely correct, but after all, there is a scientific basis.In contrast, there are some sensational rumors on the Internet. For example, Academician Zhong Nanshan has also been infected with the new crown virus. The Shanghai epidemic has lost control and Beijing is martial law.

In the face of the epidemic, of course, it should be condemned due to the concealment or fluke of political considerations, and rumors that are not based on it are not believed.It is important that while the official takes severe prevention and control measures, it is necessary to quickly and truly release relevant epidemic information to ensure the transparency of the epidemic prevention and control and the public's right to know.At the same time, officials who are suspected of malfeasance in the epidemic prevention and control must also be held accountable.

When Saus was raging in spring 2003, people were panicked, but Saus was completely controlled a few months later.At present, the Chinese society has reappeared again, and its economic and scientific and technological strength has far exceeded that year. Controlling the source of infection of the new crown virus and cutting off its transmission path should not be longer than the time to control Shas.