In recent years, the competition between the two major powers of China and the United States has begun in many areas.Before this century, the focus of competition between large powers was concentrated in competing for raw materials and markets.Since entering this century, the key points of competition have changed to technology and innovation.The more innovative ability, the more who can occupy an advantage and dominant position in this competition.
However, there are two different perspectives to observe the prospects of Sino -US innovation competition.Some western scholars start from their own perspective. After the global financial crisis in 2008, it seems that the improvement of its own innovation ability seems to lack confidence.From the perspective of China itself, some Chinese scholars can easily come to conclusions that China's innovation ability is not as good as Western.
Western perspective
Economist at Northwestern University of the United States Middot; Robert Gordon (The Rise and Fall of American Growth) published in 2016 pointed out that the main reason for the slow growth of the US economy in recent years is innovation.The activity is dull.So far, the Industrial Revolution has gone through three stages of development.If you look closely, you can find that there are innovative dull periods between different development stages.Gordon believes that it is currently in such a period, and this time may last for decades.
The current office computers and surrounding equipment have not changed from 15 to 20 years ago. The business methods of retail industry, university education methods, civil aviation, hotels, car rental, medical and other industries have not changed much.Most of today's so -called new enterprises and new products were born before 2006. Only smartphones appeared after 2007.In the middle of foreseeable new inventions, the improvement of small robots is not revolutionary. 3D printing technology will not form a large number of production. Big data and artificial intelligence are currently mainly used in marketing.Unmanned cars may bring great changes to our lives, but the reliability of this technology is far from meeting the requirements of commercialization.Gordon believes that the impact of information technology on economic development cannot be compared with revolutionary innovation between 1870 and 1970.
Why does innovation fall into dull?Why can't innovative activities promote rapid economic growth as before?Did you find that revolutionary innovation is becoming more and more difficult?Also in 2016, Swedish economist Fredrik Erixon and entrepreneur Bjorn Weigel published the book of the Innovation Illusion, pointing out that Western innovation activities have been with Bear,The creative destruction described by Joseph Schumpeter is very different, the root cause is that Western capitalism is old.With the aging of innovation, Western society has evolved into a capitalist society without capitalists.
The trend of publicization of western companies
It is said that capitalism is old. In fact, the root cause lies in the expansion of the middle class and the extension of human life.The aging of the population and retirement and retirement and pension have continued to increase, making retirement, pension funds and national sovereign funds increasingly larger.According to the Economic Organization National Organization estimates, the assets managed by insurance companies, retirement funds, and investment funds reached $ 93 trillion in 2013, which was five times that of the GDP (GDP) of the United States that year.
The result of the asset investment of sovereignty funds and pension funds is to make institutional investors the main owner of the enterprise.In 1950, the shares owned by institutional investors accounted for only 6.1%of all issued equity, which accounted for more than 50%in 2009.Conversely, the shares owned by individual investors in the 1960s accounted for 84%of all issued equity.But in 2013, only 40%of the proportion was left.
The result of a large number of equity purchases in institutional investors is to make many large companies be public.Before being acquired by the Bank of America, 50%of the equity of Merrill Lynch is held by institutions such as sovereign funds, common funds, retirement funds, etc., and 50%of the other retailers are held, and the highest shares of these individual investors account for only 0.07%.General Electric held 82%of the shares in 2019 by 1859 institutional investors, the largest institutional holders were Vanguard Group.Pioneer Group is the world's largest common fund and the second largest trading development index fund (ETF) management company. It also has 7%of the S & P 500 and serves 20 million investors around the world.
The result of the company's publicization is the change of the incentive mechanism.Due to the scattered equity, 10%or even 5%of the shares can obtain control of operating rights. Major shareholders can take the stool of small shareholders and use other people's money to do their own business.Small shareholders only care about the company's stock price rising and dividend, and ignore the company's operating conditions.Institutional investors also believe that this is just an asset in the investment portfolio. It is an egg placed in different baskets. It is not necessary to send directors to intervene in the board of directors.The equity is too decentralized and the property rights are false, which makes the supervision of shareholders weaker and weak.
As a result, entrusted agent became the main issue of corporate governance.Prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, the company's executives enjoyed greater power than Chinese state -owned corporate bresses. They continued to increase their salaries, and the salary of executives became higher and higher.Scandals such as Enron and Lehman brothers broke out in the crisis.
When the company has huge losses, a large number of employees, and even the aid of taxpayers to escape the bankruptcy doom, some company's boss is keen to spend one million US dollars for their offices for super luxury decoration.The victory is collectively repaired and issued a huge year -end bonus for yourself.Once these behaviors were exposed, they immediately caused public anger.The U.S. Congress filed a bill to levy 90%of the income tax on the bonus.President Obama also spoke specifically to condemn this irresponsible shameless behavior.However, the high -level management should be the government and the abduction of taxpayers with the serious social consequences of the company's failure, so that the interests are personalized and socialized.
Strong regulatory changes to large company executive behavior
After the global financial crisis, the government strengthened its supervision of the company.Due to the lack of information and regulatory capabilities, government departments can only rely on various systems, and the results make the rules complex and change.According to the survey, the performance instructions that the company's executives must complete were 4 to 7 in 1955, and now it is 25 to 40.As the regulations are becoming more and more complicated, many companies have also set up Chief Compliance Office to ensure that the company's behavior is in line with regulations, policies, and procedures.
Government's policy orientation is a predictable predictable market stability and innovative influence, especially for innovative products that prevent huge impact on the market (such as financial derivatives that cause the financial crisis).As a result, companies that want to introduce revolutionary innovation found that the cost of compliance was very high and was forced to give up.The government regulatory department also invented the supervisory sandbox, using control to determine the pace of innovation and its impact on the market.The sandbox is used to domesticate cats. As a result of strong supervision, the wildness of entrepreneurs' innovation has gradually been tamed.
Institutions such as retirement and pension funds are responsible for investors, they are afraid that after the financial crisis again, they have greatly shrunk their retirement and pensions, and they have also strengthened their control of the company.One method is to limit the company's cash flow so that the company cannot invest with its own funds, and all investment decisions must be restricted by external institutions.The ratio of the reserved surplus and net income of American companies decreased from 50%to 60%in the 1960s to less than 10%.
Institutional investors hope to decentralize risks, and investment returns must be predictable.They do not encourage competition between companies, because these institutions may have the stocks of competitive companies at the same time.However, the risks and returns of innovative activities are difficult to predict.After the company's executives fully understood the preferences of institutional investors, these preferences of retired elderly people, they changed their behavior and were unwilling to take risks.
Erikson and Weiger discovered, nowThe executives of Western enterprise in the West have a strong defensive mentality, more concerned about the risks that may occur in decisions, and less concerned about the benefits of decision -making.They actively participate in fund management, and their behavior is more and more like a bank.According to reports from the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization, from the 1970s to the 1980s, the borrowing of US corporate departments was about 15%to 20%of production assets. In 2007, the corporate department borrowed money to other departments and lended funds to produce production reaching production to production.5%of assets.The company often spends money to repurchase stocks and acquire competitors, but its investment in R & D has decreased.
Erikson and Weiger believe that the economic energy of innovation is not in invention, but in competition and adaptation, and how to promote workers, investors, enterprises, and governments to improve efficiency.In recent years, there are three main changes that have hindered innovation in recent years.One is that the company is increasingly dependent on the financial market because of the lack of internal funds; the second is that the entrepreneurial spirit is replaced by the rent -seeking activities of managing bureaucrats; and the third is the complexity and change of government control rules.The aging Western countries lack breakthrough innovation, mainly because Xiong Peter -style entrepreneurs have been replaced by assets and financial managers and evolved into capitalist countries that lack capitalists.
There are still a few people who have the same views with the scholars above, and the mainstream view is still confident in the innovation ability of the West.However, in recent years, China has increased investment in R & D and implemented industrial policy guidance and innovative activities.The rapid development of technology companies such as Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, Xiaomi, and the innovative activities of 5G technology, e -commerce, mobile payment and derivative products are deepening the sense of crisis in the West, making the West more vigilant for challenges from China, To produce more intense policy reactions.
China's perspective
Conversely, Chinese scholars basically do not have skepticism about Western innovation ability, but they are more pessimistic about their innovation ability.According to the research of Professor Zhang Weiying of Peking University, most of the more than 5,000 industries segmented by the international standard industry classification method were created in the past 300 years, but none of these new industries and related new products were invented by the Chinese.Of the 1001 major inventions of the world, 30 items in China have appeared before the Ming Dynasty.None of the 838 major inventions around the world after 1500 came from China.
As a large population country, why is China's modern modern invention creation and industrial innovation?The general view is that the ideas of Chinese Confucian culture, ministers, ministers, and the first country and then family advocate concentrated and obedience, oppose the new and different, and disrespect for personal freedom, and lack of protection for personal rights. These are not conducive to the creation and innovative talents of intellectual property rights.Growth.
Since the reform and opening up, China has made up for foreign investment and drawing on advanced technologies through attracting foreign investment to make up for its own lack of innovation.However, due to the failure of the rule of law, the incident of infringement of intellectual property occurred from time to time.Some government departments also adopt a technology -to -market method to force foreign companies or joint venture partners to transfer technology.
With the upgrading of competition between China and the United States, the transfer of intellectual property protection and mandatory technology has become the main topic of Sino -US trade negotiations.At the executive meeting of the State Council of the Chinese State Council at the beginning of last year, the principles of competitive neutrality were proposed, and it was decided to accelerate the cleanup, modification and abolition of policies and regulations that hinder fair competition, restrict the development of private enterprises, and violate domestic and foreign capital.The executive meeting of the State Council in October last year also proposed that it is not allowed to force or enforce foreign -funded enterprises' transfer technology.In addition, as innovation activities are becoming increasingly important, China's domestic demand for strengthening intellectual property protection also has a great demand.These changes help promote normal innovation activities.
However, the improvement of the innovative environment is also facing severe challenges.The 2019 Middot, hosted by Professor Huang Yiping of Peking University; Report on the Shan Shan reports: The globalization trend may stop or even reverse, and the dependence of China's economic growth on external markets, capital and technology may be reduced; if China's economy can achieve high -quality development in the future, it is determined to be determinedInnovative enterprises and private enterprises have become the main force of economic innovation today, but they cannot obtain effective financing services.
On the other hand, in the state of decentralization, local governments in China have a strong willingness and enthusiasm for supporting innovation.In a highly centralized environment, behaviors are generally conservative, and they are afraid of making mistakes.The behavior of Chinese state -owned enterprise executives is similar to government officials. In the environment of strong supervision, the enthusiasm of innovation is not high.Coupled with the promotion of mixed ownership in recent years, after the participation of private enterprises participating in private enterprises, the behavior of state -owned enterprise executives and the SASAC is very similar to Western institutional investors. The control of enterprises is very strong, which has greatly damaged private enterprises to a large extent.The enthusiasm of the home.
Interestingly, the joint -stock system has become an acceptable form of public ownership property rights in the reform of Chinese state -owned enterprises, but this property right system brings the convergence of the behavior of Chinese enterprises and European and American enterprises, and it is also facing the dysentery of entrusting agents.During strong supervision, corporate innovation is difficult and has no enthusiasm; when weak supervision, it is prone to the phenomenon of agents invading the interests of the client.
In the past, the innovation in the West mainly relies on large companies, because they have enough resources to engage in research and development, have the ability to protect their own intellectual property rights, and form competition barriers with technology.In the past 20 years, due to the new definition of the Intellectual Property Protection Law, small companies in the United States have gradually become the owner of innovation technology.Although large companies have insufficient innovation motivation, with the support of venture capital funds, small companies are strengthening their innovation capabilities.
On the other hand, McKinsey's analysis believes that due to the population effect of the population and the enthusiastic support of consumers for the innovation service model, China has become a global leader of the customer center -type innovation.In addition, China also has a huge, flexible and efficient supplier group, numerous high -skilled labor, and perfect logistics facilities. It is also in a unique advantage in the field of efficiency -driven innovation.Therefore, the West and China have their own highlights in the field of innovation.
In the final analysis, the competition between China and the United States is still the competition of institutional innovation.Who's system is more flexible and easier to adapt to the needs of competition and innovative activities, and it is more likely to win in the competition. This is not doubtful.
(The author is a professor at the School of Public Policy, the National University of Singapore, and the director of the Chinese project. This article is the author of the English Electronics Magazine China (ThinkChina), a subsidiary of Lianhe Zaobao)
In recent years, there are three main changes that have hindered innovation in recent years.One is that the company is increasingly dependent on the financial market because of the lack of internal funds; the second is that the entrepreneurial spirit is replaced by the rent -seeking activities of managing bureaucrats; and the third is the complexity and change of government control rules.The aging Western countries lack breakthrough innovation, mainly because Xiong Peter -style entrepreneurs have been replaced by assets and financial managers and evolved into capitalist countries that lack capitalists.
At present, China's government's highly intervention and absolute financial system by banks can no longer support the development of the innovative economy, because those innovative enterprises and private enterprises with light assets and small -scale have become the main force of economic innovation today, but they have become the main force of today's economic innovation, but they areCan't obtain effective financing services.
