The Sino -US trade war, which is about a year and a half, has finally reached the first phase of the agreement.Here, I reflect on the ups and downs of China and the United States. The lessons and lessons of experience are not unparalleled in reality and future.
From the perspective of influence, this round of trade war has always been unhappy in the American society and market. The Trump administration has also launched trade dispute negotiations with many countries at the same time. American public opinion has reported accordingly, and the Wall Street stock market sometimes has some sensitive reactions.But that's it, this is a economic and trade issue in the United States.
But there is a lot in China.In the initial stage of the trade war, the rise of the great power, competition between China and the West, selling US debt, embargoing rare earth, Shangganling, and long -lasting war, etc., were mobilized to fight against the United States to fight against the United States.However, the first stage of trade agreement was reached, but under the case of maintaining the tariffs that have been imposed in China in the United States, China purchased about US $ 200 billion in goods from the United States within two years.It stipulates that there are only three places in the United States.
Obviously, the so -called first -stage trade agreement is actually a list that requires China's correction to correction. The direct purpose is to achieve the balance of peer trade between the two countries.China will explain public opinion on the premise as soon as it was from the beginning, and it is not embarrassing and passive now.And why do China reach such an agreement with the United States?What about its huge market advantages?What are the competitive advantages of cheap export processing?In the early days of the Sino -US trade war, there was a point of view that there is no shortage of American goods in China, and the people are at most that people tighten their pants; and the United States urgently needs Chinese goods, otherwise Americans will not even buy pants.
But it turns out that the opposite is the opposite: China's economic structure is seriously dependent on external processing exports, especially exports to the United States; while American goods cannot be sold in China, they can also be sold in Mexico, Japan;Essence
This means that the advantages of emerging markets are as obvious as the disadvantages. If it can operate in accordance with the rules and rules, it will organically integrate into the global industrial chain, which does have endless potential;Then the crisis is also huge.Since modern times, the Chinese talk about masturbation is that I am in Huaxia and the earth and the world.
As a result of such a large gap between the Sino -US trade war, it also fully illustrates a problem that China has a significant misjudgment of the situation and pattern.There are two major reasons for people to misjudge the objective situation: First, the collection and understanding of information and information are not comprehensive and accurate. Sitting on the well and watching the sky, a leafy eye, which leads to a one -sided judgment; although the situation and information are clear at a glance, the way of thinking is the way of thinking.The position view and objective law seriously departed. Even if there are comprehensive and accurate information in your hand, you still have to have the correct conclusion judgment.
In depth, reality Chinese culture and western mainstream culture in modernization, leadership quality, social environment, experimental exploration, invention creation, procedural optimization, etc., the gaps and disadvantages are still huge.The basic gap between Chinese classical agricultural civilization and modernization has missed, and in the past 180 years, there have been continuous war turmoil, historical inertia, and blind tossing. Several generations have not stopped.Evolution and scientific research and development.
For example, in terms of social management, what should not be managed must not be managed, but it is often loosened. Such serious misplaced social operations will only cause absurdity and disaster.Recently, there are any Wuhan South Seafood City, quality integrity, etc. For the time being, it has become the source of fatal pneumonia virus, which makes people feel heartbroken during the Spring Festival, and also affects overseas countries.What about the usual food safety supervision?What about environmental prevention and hygiene?What about legal business inspectors?The typical incompetence of the government's administrative department can be seen here.
As a result, it is useless for small farmers to boast, and they only deceive themselves and laugh.Catching the West is not simply a problem at the level of utensils, nor is it a problem of wealthy and guns, but a problem of evolution of the core and overall system of civilization. It is a problem that must be solidly infrastructure and improve the quality of the whole society.Otherwise, once you play with the advanced civilization of modernization, you can only take care of this, the square inch is chaotic, and the failure will be defeated.
(The author is an expert in international cultural strategic consulting and research in the United States)
