Author: Huang Zhijin
U.S. President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He signed the first stage of economic and trade agreement in the East Hall of the White House last Wednesday (January 15), marking the temporary suspension of the two -and -a -half -year trade war.Guessing the long -term global observers can finally see the face of the agreement text.After the agreement was announced, the outside world tried to identify or lose or lose from the provisions, but at the same time, it was almost unusual to say that the trade war between China and the United States will last long, and the future plot will still be ups and downs.At the same time, the game of the world's two major economies made people deeply feel the end of the old age and the arrival of the new era.
The U.S. Trade Representative Office released an English version of the agreement through the official website, a total of 96 pages.China released the Chinese version of the Chinese Department of the International Economic Relations of the Ministry of Finance on Thursday (January 16), with a total of 88 pages.According to the United States, the collapse of trade negotiations in China and the United States before is related to the confidentiality of China's insistence on the confidentiality of the agreement of the agreement; however, the text of this agreement is all public, only one confidential attachment MDASH; mdash;The details of the details will disrupt the market.Except for the text agreement, there are no other verbal or written documents, and there is no agreement on reducing tariffs in the future.In other words, the agreement has been finalized from the text to the signature, and the U.S. tariffs on China have not changed.
At present, the United States still has more than 360 billion US dollars (S $ 484.9 billion) of Chinese goods. The additional tariffs of Chinese goods have not been canceled, and China has also continued to levy tariffs on American goods with a proportion of peers.Previously, the United States had agreed to reduce the tariffs of $ 120 billion in products from 15 % to 7.5 %, which can be regarded as the only determined tariff deduction.U.S. President Trump claimed that the United States would soon launch a second phase of negotiations with China, but it may only reach an agreement after the November US election. In its meaning, other US tariffs will be kept at least after the US election.
Generally speaking, Trump does not need to sign a trade agreement as a president, especially when Vice Premier Liu He is in an inconsistent with him.In the past, there was a saying that the United States would be signed by the staff of the Minister of Commerce or the trade representative, but Trump believed that this was an agreement reached by himself. He must sign his own name.The Prime Minister signed the agreement together.
The signing scene becomes the Political Stage of the White House
Trump also did not forget to get votes on these official signing ceremony.Just on the same day, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, officially signed and sent to the Senate on the impeachment terms.Trump hopes to seize the attention of domestic public opinion through such public relations tactics that signed a trade agreement.In addition to the trade team members of Robert Lighthizer and Treasurer Steven Mnuchin at the scene of the signing site, they also include the governor, members (mainly Republican MPs, mostly from agricultural states) and investors.Many people are Trump's supporters and friends.There are 10 Chinese officials, mainly Liu He and his negotiating team and Chinese ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai.For the 70 -minute signing ceremony, Trump introduced that US personnel accounted for 50 minutes and put Chinese personnel aside.Liu He spoke, recounted the letter from the President of China ... and Cui Tiankai's speech for a total of more than ten minutes.Trump has actually had a mystery. For example, he specially named the former Federal Reserve Director Kevin Warsh, complaining that he had not worked hard to fight for the President of the Federal Reserve.It can be seen that the entire signing scene is actually a domestic political stage for Trump's self -directed and self -directed and self -directed.
Back to the trade agreement itself, Trump continued his previous statement, saying that this was the biggest agreement that anyone had never seen before, and praised again ... and mentioned that he would visit China in the near future.Liu He and Cui Tiankai overall emphasized the mutual benefit and win -win situation of the Sino -US trade agreement, and emphasized that the agreement was based on equality and mutual respect.
The unified text of the text is obvious to see the subtle phase
The agreement text is consistent and English, with a total of nine chapters, in order: intellectual property; technology transfer; food and agricultural trade trade; financial services; macroeconomic policies, exchange rate issues and transparency; expanding trade; bilateral assessment and dispute resolution; final terms.Both sides of the text mentioned that the changes in trade and economic structures brought about by the open economy and improvement of the trade system (regime) that China is taking are will help expand the trade flow, including significantly increasing the commodity and Chinese goods and other countries in China and other countries.Service export.Overall, the agreement emphasizes China's obligations and contractuality of the agreement, such as many words such as the United States, and China Shall with many parts of the United States.However, looking back at China ’s consistent trade policy and analyzing the specific content of the text, it can be seen that both China and the United States have requirements and concessions, and there is no absolute difference.For example, intellectual property rights chapter, most of the terms are a policy that China has promised or paved before signing the agreement; the financial services are basically the reiteration of China's financial open practice in the past two years.The details of openness, for example, China will not cancel life insurance, endowment insurance, and health insurance in the fields of life insurance, pension insurance, and health insurance on April 1 this year;Highlighting the obligation to be equal, indicating that China has not changed in the face of unmotned the transfer of mandatory technology transfer and exchange rate manipulation of the United States.
In addition, in the past, the aggressive and one -way push implementation level in the United States, the agreement only said that the bilateral assessment and dispute resolution of the two parties settled by the two parties.In terms of words, China has previously emphasized the dispute settings, and the United States has repeatedly insisted on ensuring that the Chinese party's commitment is guaranteed through the so -called enforcement mechanism. In this agreement, it can be seen how the two parties cleverly care for each other, andTo reach consensus.Although the agreement is based on Article 5.4, the agreement is based on the specific wording, and in December last year, the dispute resolution system (Dispute Resolution System) used by the two countries was once again tuned into the dispute resolution arrangement.And add bilateral evachuation to take care of the face of the United States, but also responded to the actual demands of the Chinese side.
Stopping China has not only bought more American goods
The signing of the agreement is a win -win situation for China and the United States.For Trump, this agreement is enough for him to show off the results he reached, and the United States naturally is a winner in his context.Although the U.S. trade war has lost the best results it wants, China promises to procure the amount of agricultural product procurement of 40 to 50 billion US dollars, so that Trump can logically say that American farmers have won, and a total of US $ 200 billionThe procurement commitment also satisfied his demands on eliminating the trade deficit.Although other aspects of China's commitments are far from the imagination of the American Eagle School, in the grand signing ceremony, Trump has achieved a certain political achievement for this year's presidential election to help him further consolidate the red constituency.
Of course, unlike the previous Sino -US negotiations, in the face of the US powerful offensive, China has quite initiative and control.Even if the procurement contract and open measures have to be loser, China has won more in this trade agreement.
The real purpose of the United States to launch a tariff trade war is to curb China in all aspects, which is also the United States' releasing Chinese anxiety that has accumulated for a long time.Sooner or later, these anxiety will be released, and may even be released in a more dangerous way. The trade war can temporarily subscribe in procurement, which is a very gentle result.
In the defensive China, whether it is talked or talked about, it shows strategic self -confidence and determination, maintaining national interests and dignity while adhering to the bottom line.For example, although the number of purchases is huge, it is not completely impossible to complete; the agreement text remains balanced and is not an unequal treaty.Moreover, the direction of reform measures in the agreement is in line with ChinaThe need for the second reform and opening up of the country.
Furthermore, the game between China and the United States must be a lasting battle.The most important role of this agreement is to make Sino -US economic and trade relations closer, prevent the decoupling of China and the United States, and make conflicts between the two countries to risk more risks to the United States.From expected to suppress the Chinese war, relegation to a transaction that can be resolved with a procurement commitment, it also highlights China's strong ability to control Sino -US relations.
Now it seems that the Chinese economy is indeed not a small pond. The two -year trade war has indeed a lot of adverse effects on China, but it has not changed the direction of China's economic development.The Sino -US trade war can be eased today, not the result of obedience to the United States, but the true foundation with strength.The tough and open movement of negotiations in the United States has given the world not only re -understand China's comprehensive strength, but also allows the world to see China's determination to open up again.
Mei Shi Allied Alliance Stand Team Anti -help China Expand Diplomacy
Because of this, the United States pressures global allies under the trade war, but the European Union and Japan who were asked to stand teams did not follow blindly, but began to find a suitable position between China and the United States.Relations of China and Japan, South Korea, North Korea, and ASEAN are generally warm. The cooperation mechanisms of the two major powers of China and Russia have embarked on a new height. Instead, these processes have been assisted by the United States.
From the far -reaching influence, when China continues to increase opening up and the United States has continuously built barriers, China is in the wave of priority in the United States to take on the banner of free trade and multilateralism with actual actions. This scene is of extraordinary significance.This means that China not only can withstand storms in hard power, but also increases the attractiveness of soft power or values, which will be a historic turn to China.Therefore, winning or losing is not only compared with the trade amount, but also about the overall situation of Sino -US relations, opportunities for development in China, and changes in the global structure.From this perspective, China ’s small losses for more American goods are already a big win in the international structure.
