From the perspective of which perspective, the contemporary world has become increasingly irresistible. Whether it is traditional authoritarian or democracy, it quickly loses its dominance or effective governance capabilities, facing profound challenges and crises.Many observers believe that the governance crisis is triggered by a new wave of contemporary revolution, and the revolution is mainly manifested as a fierce and violent social protest.In those countries and regions that have a social protest, although the revolution has its internal roots, many protests are triggered by changes in the external international environment, and even directly triggered by external forces.
This wave of revolution began in the Spring of Arabia at the end of 2010, and then spread everywhere.It is ridiculous that the original intention of this wave of revolution (that is, the intention of the revolutionary developer) is to improve the governance system.For the West, the Western system is the best and ultimate system in the world, and all other forms of systems will eventually be replaced by the Western system.The West's self -confidence in this point is almost self -confident, and there is no need to add more demonstrations, which are reflected in the historical end that prevailed.People know that there is a Washington consensus in the West in the economy, but in fact the West also has a Washington consensus politically.
In Western countries, its government, international non -governmental organizations, and international organizations controlled by the West are all regarded Western governance experience as universal and must be accepted by all other non -Western countries.Western governance theory has appeared in the form of universal theory. Not only is Western convinced, but many non -Western social groups, especially the intellectual circles, believe.Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the participants of the Color Revolution (both inside or outside) are believed that the revolution is to overthrow non -Western politics and build a Western regime.
The combination of internal and external causes leads to the revolution or social struggle of western -style democracy.This wave of revolution can be said to reach a peak by 2019.From Hong Kong, Chile, Algeria, Lebanon to France in China, the world seems to be full of angry people. They re -carry the banner of the angry people in the 2010s, protesting the waves, and the waves, opposing the existing political system and vested interest groups.To this day, this wave of protests shows no signs of decline; on the contrary, people can expect that this wave of revolution will continue in this decade.
Unfortunately, it was not the Western -style democratic politics order that people had hoped at the beginning since the 2010 Cultural Revolution or various social protests.There is no need to deny the energy of social protests. In the past 10 years, they have overturned the heads and governments of many countries.However, despite being overthrown by the autocratic regime defined by the West, the new regime cannot be established.In non -Western society, society protests are failed everywhere, and there is anarchy everywhere.Even more serious, the extremist forces represented by Islamic State rose rapidly and spread rapidly to all parts of the world.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that although the West is the initiator of the Color Revolution, it is difficult to be spared.No matter where, it is difficult for people to endure anarchy, and the deterioration of the internal order environment has led to a large wave of refugees.The goal of refugee tide is naturally Western countries.On the one hand, it is because of the level of socio -economic development in the West, and on the other hand, because of the many years of propaganda in the West, after the Western countries helped overthrow their government, they embarked on the road to Western countries.A large number of refugees poured into the West, becoming the direct root of the rise of Western populism, and it has become a trigger point for various internal contradictions in the West.
Any reasons for any revolution
In the past 300 years, with the dominant world of Western countries, the free democratic government, which was initiated by the West, has also continued to expand, establishing its hegemonic position in the world.The three waves of democracy in the West have so far spread from the west to non -Western countries.In this process, British and American freedom and democracy have been regarded as lighthouses.But the absurdity is that this wave of Western democratic crisis begins with British and American countries, the Brexit referendum and the elected president of Trump, the United States.It can be understood that it was not until the British and American itself had a huge crisis, and after the Western itself said the authoritative populist regime, people felt that a real crisis had come.
Any reasons for any revolution, rather than revolutionary for the revolution.Today, regardless of Western or non -western society, it is increasingly losing equality that society's survival and development should be.As French thinker, Alexis de Tocqueville, when discussing American democracy, the advantage of democracy is that, comparedEssence
It is not difficult to understand that when describing democracy, Tocoweier spent more pen and ink on equality, rather than seeing democracy as a simple election line today.Equality is undoubtedly the most basic condition that society depends on. The reason is simple. There is no minimum equality. How can people form a community?
In the West, the symbiotic relationship between democracy and equality discussed by Tocoweier was maintained until the 1980s.The western democracy that people see today is the product of two western revolutions, namely the enlightenment movement originated from France and the industrial revolution originated in the UK.Enlightenment has bred the concept of democracy and rights, and the industrial revolution eventually makes the realization of democracy and rights possible.After experiencing (Britain) in the stage of unmanned primitive capitalism in the Manchester Factory era, Western experienced the era of socialist movements and (US) Fortune Factory.Whether it is a socialist movement or the Fortune Factory model, it has promoted the common realization of the two goals of western social and economic growth.
But since the 1980s, the symbiosis of democracy and equality has no longer.This is a very paradoxical phenomenon.One -person and democracy in the real sense of the West began in the 1970s.From the equality of political rights, one person and one vote of democracy or the realization of public democracy can be said to be a peak of Western democracy.However, with the realization of democracy, economic inequality is getting worse.
Today, the wealthy economy mentioned in the West refers to the huge amount of wealth of the country in the hands of a few people, and the economic wealth that most people can share is less and less.Obviously, at least in the West, this wave of social protests only means that society has lost the most basic social fairness that it depends on survival.
However, the seriousness of the problem is that the trend of inequality is inevitable. At least until now, no country has an effective way to prevent this trend.This trend is considered the result of globalization and technological progress over the past decades.It is easy to understand that the political theme prevailing in the West today is: 1. Anti -globalization, manifested as economic nationalism and trade protectionism; 2. Looking for the negative effects brought about by technological progress, such as the universal salary system and the robotic robotTaxation, etc.
However, reality is also cruel.Although anti -globalization has become a fact, anti -globalization (at least until now) has not helped the West to solve the problem; on the contrary, anti -globalization has brought more and more problems to the West (and non -Western countries).Since modern times, the West has been the main promoter of globalization and the vested interest of globalization.Today, the West destroyed the global structure established by itself, which has the impact of this behavior on the West itself.Furthermore, the advancement of technology seems to be unstoppable, but most of the negative effects produced by the progress of the corresponding payment technology still stay in the utopian stage.
What does a society lose the equality that it depends on survival means?Simply put, it means that the rulers and the ruler are getting farther and farther, and they are not as powerful as.More and more young people no longer continue to trust the existing system. They have deep doubts about everything represented by the existing system, and they want to change all of this with action.This is the premise of the revolution.
When the governance society loses effective means
It is also important that when the ruling class loses an effective means to govern the society, the ruler has obtained effective tools for the revolution.The first is the popularity of democracy.Democracy is both value and means. In the value, for most people, democracy means that they should enjoy ownership that a democratic society should enjoy, regardless of whether the conditions are.Democracy also becomes a public fightTake the effective means of value you recognize.
As far as means, democracy means that people can go to the streets at any time and fight against fighting. Violence is often the inner part of social resistance.As far as the resistance is concerned, because the rights given by democracy are highly morality and legitimacy, any means (including violence) are considered reasonable.The target certificate is correct.
As far as means, what is more effective than democracy is the widespread use of the Internet and social media, so that the entire world is parallel.Part of the fighting movement.In such a parallel world, social resistance has shown many characteristics that have never been before.
First, any of the things that look less conspicuous in tradition can trigger social protests that are unimaginable.Hong Kong's anti -repair examples, Chile's subway votes increase, Lebanon's new tax on WhatsApp classes, French welfare reforms, etc., all started and carried out in this way.
Second, social media connect family members, friends, colleagues, and even people who do not know each other, but have common values, and become an effective tool for social mobilization.
Third, social media easily makes a social struggle with instant internationality, and social resistances in different countries imitate, learn and support each other.
Traditionally, there are revolution and counter -revolution.The so -called revolution is to change the dynasty and overthrow the existing regime, while the counter -revolution is often the establishment of the establishment and the vested interests.Once the revolution occurs, if one of these two forces is not a replacement of another, or if a compromise is not reached, the revolution will be difficult to end.This situation still exists in non -Western society. Social resistance often causes serious opposition and public conflicts between the two, and has evolved into violence and bleeding.
But in a democratic society, in the face of social struggle, most of the politicians are manifested as two sides and even more people.Traditionally, politicians or those who have controlled power are a responsibility to make correct judgments for the people.But now, on the one hand, the people no longer trust politicians, and on the other hand, politicians pay power to the people, irresponsible, and return the responsibilities of political judgment to the people.When social struggles have occurred, the ruler must be realists. Whether it is internal affairs or diplomacy, the solution of the problem cannot be tolerant of excessive idealism.
However, when facing the people (that is, votes), the rulers had to maintain political correctness, moral accuracy, and correctness.They have to deceive the people or even kidnap people.The greater tragedy is hidden in it.When politicians do not have enough realism, they have lost their ability to make rational decisions.
The so -called correctness is only to cover up the problems and contradictions, so that the problems and contradictions will continue to accumulate.Obviously, the problems targeted at the outbreak of social resistance in the West were accumulated in a long period of historical time in the past.In the face of so many problems, many governments have neither room to conquer nor effective solutions, which has deepened the opposition between revolution and counter -revolutionary forces.
No one can foresee when the contemporary revolution can end?Even in the West, people see that the power of the revolution continues and even grows, but the power of counter -revolution is still weak and incompetent.The seriousness of the problem is that neither the revolutionary force nor the counter -revolutionary forces provides an effective alternative governance system.Revolutionary forces are dissatisfied with the status quo, and it is effective when destroying the existing system, but except for destroying or seizing the regime, the revolutionaries do not have another choice for governance systems that can be universal.
That's the case in the West, as is it in non -West.In the West, after the populist politicians (especially those outsiders of the Politburo) seized the regime, they were also incomprehensible to the problem as the previous institutionalists.In non -West, the situation is worse. As mentioned above, after the current regime is overturned, there are often failed countries or anarchy.On the other hand, the weakness of the counter -revolutionary forces is manifested in an incompetent system, which makes it meet the needs of the times. It is also that it cannot propose an institutional replacement that can be universally accepted by society.
Judging from the development of the years, the contemporary governance crisis tends to make the world full of uncertainty and risks.Democratic society may lead to a wider and deeper social differentiation, causing various extremism to flood the disaster, the internal social conflict has intensified, and external power politics prevails.Instead of Western countries (developing countries), there will be more failed countries or anarchy.
Historically, it is difficult for most social members to withstand extreme political conditions or anarchy. Once they exceed their tolerance, they will tend to accept autocracy, at least more autocracy.Therefore, although people generally believe that in today's world, democracy has become more unavoidable, but another Hobbes -style era is not completely impossible, that is, people have given up some rights that have been called democracy so far in exchange for stability in exchange for stability, Order and security.
(The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore)
The article only represents personal point of view
