Economic Daily News
After 23 months and 13 rounds of negotiations, the Sino -US trade negotiations finally signed the first phase agreement on January 15 this year.However, the financial market response is relatively bland. One is that optimism has been reflected in the previous one, and the other is that the formal agreement content is not far from expected.
There are eight chapters in this agreement, including clear items, implementation details, and time points. Only the third chapter of food and agricultural products trade, and chapter 6 expanded trade.For example, the content of the agreement pointed out that China's import amount to the United States today and the next year will expand another $ 200 billion (S $ 269.4 billion) (based on 2017), and the annual growth rates have reached 88.1%and 53.2%, respectively, reaching difficulty to achieve difficulty, respectively, reaching difficulty, and the difficulty can be achieved.Obviously high.Furthermore, a lot of books are also listed in the agreement, such as if it encounters irresistible factors or the problems that can be blamed on the United States, which will cause the Chinese side to be insufficient.In other words, when factors such as market conditions or weather have changed, the actual purchase volume of agricultural products will be difficult to meet the standards; or hidden in the U.S. -China science and technology war heating up, the US export ban on Huawei will become a China side's failure to reach an agreement purchase amount.Excuse.
As for the MDASH; MDASH; MDASH; the Chinese government's subsidies and legislation implementation structural reforms in the Chinese government have not mentioned in this formal agreement.For example, in the protection of smart property rights, a conditional conclusion will be adopted, and China can no longer use the Chinese market as a formal or informal technical transfer, but all lack clear implementation details, identification standards and time points, only directions, only directionsSexual consensus, it is estimated that this will be the focus of subsequent second -stage negotiations.
From the perspective of the content text of the agreement, more than 90 % of the US demands on the Chinese side, and the Chinese commitment of the Chinese side, that is, the Chinese side is far greater than the United States, and the open range of financial services is better than the expected accidental results (most of the most part (most of the most partThe restrictions on foreign investment in the financial industry will be opened at the latest within five months; the application for licenses of MasterCard Card, VISA card, and American Express within one month) will help the United States expand the scope of service trade in the Chinese market.In addition, the current tariffs have not been adjusted, and many China still has a punitive tariff on the US exported goods, and US President Trump (Trump) has publicly stated that the tariff method is still an important for subsequent negotiations to China negotiations.Chips, etc., seem to be in line with the White House claiming that the first phase of the agreement is the great victory of the United States.
However, it can be found that the negotiations of the negotiations from April last April to the present can be found that although the first phase of the agreement seems to be beneficial to the US economy, it has not made obvious concessions in China in terms of structural reform.The agreement is left everywhere. From the perspective of the down steps, this confrontation is that the United States has won face, and Chinese officials in the United States have time to change their time.
This situation is very likely that when China is negotiating in the future, it adopts Trump compromise with the pressure of elections and political performance, and even continues to delay to the US presidential election, in exchange for the possibility of a new government.What's more, for more than a year in the trade war, China has successively reduced the proportion of exports to the United States, so that the United States's largest exporter from China has retired to ASEAN (Asia Gyan) and Europe.The pressure brought by is also forced to make unnecessary concessions. For example, structural reforms involve the revision of domestic law in China. China will refuse to cooperate with the US requirements on the grounds of maintaining national sovereignty.
In the same way, in the US economy continued to expand, no tariffs on imported goods in China, the reduction of consumer momentum caused by the increase in consumer momentum.When the reform is concession, you can lift the tariffs boldly.In particular, the National-Security Realists in the Political Circle of Washington (National-Security Realist) still strongly adhere to it that the United States should never abandon the adherence to national security in order to develop economy.Conservatism) Traditional conflicts of mutual conflict, also making trade dispute endless will become the norm of economic and trade relations in the United States and China.
In this way, under the situation where both parties may tend to stance in a tough position in the future, the second phase of trading consultation to prepare for structural issues will be more difficult.The reason why the current first stage agreement can be signed is that last year, China faced political pressure from the economic downturn and Trump was dissatisfied with the dissatisfaction of agricultural state voters, which contributed to the opportunity to take a step back on both sides.
